Non-farm payrolls for March 2019
- Prior was +20K (revised to +33K)
- Estimates ranged from 145K to 277K
- Two month net revision +14K
- Unemployment rate 3.8% vs 3.8% expected
- Participation rate 63.0 vs 63.2% prior
- Avg hourly earnings +0.1% vs +0.3% exp
- Avg hourly earnings +3.2% y/y vs +3.4% exp
- Private payrolls +182K vs +177K exp
- Manufacturing -6K vs +10K exp (first decline since Oct 2016)
- U6 underemployment 7.3% vs 7.3% prior
The headline number will relieve a bit of angst after the poor February print but the earnings numbers are poor. For stock markets, this is a bit of a goldilocks number because you have a decent economy without the threat of hikes because of rising wages. However, it’s a negative for the dollar because it underscores that the Fed is done hiking for the cycle.