Sunday’s overnight session saw both the official Chinese PMI and the Caixin measure return to expansion in March confirming that the stimulus program is capable of boosting the Chinese slowdown. This return to expansion will also settle nerves around the Global outlook which was sparked by the weak PMI data out of Germany and the US last month. Incidentallythat weak reading of 44.7 was revised down further to 44.1 on April 1. Also, Justin reported on Germany’s engineering sector halving their output in 2019. See here for the details.

The MSCI Asia pacific index showed a 25% increase in the 18 months after the last time official PMI data rose back above 50 in 2016. Look at the chart below for the connection between the Chinese PMI data and the MSCI Assia Pacific Index.

All we need know is Brexit to be sorted, German manufacturing to pick up and Trump and Xi to sign a great deal. To coin a New Zealand phrase, ‘What are the chances?’