This via the UK House of Commons … decent source 😀
ps. these results all posted earlier, now in summary form:
The eight Brexit votes – result in summary
Archives of “March 2019” month
rssUS stocks end the session off the lows, but still lower on the day
Dow turned positive near the close but stalled and moved back in the red
The US stocks are ending the session off the lows, but still lower on the day.
The final numbers are showing:
- S&P index, -13.09 points or -0.46% at 2805.37
- Nasdaq index, -48.13 points or -0.63% at 7643.37
- Dow, -32.14 points or -0.13% at 25625.50.
Thought For A Day
New Zealand dollar extends decline but the previous drop is instructive
NZD/USD hits a session low
The New Zealand dollar was cut down in Asia-Pacific trading after the RBNZ surprised markets by shifting to an outright dovish bias.
” Given the weaker global economic outlook and reduced momentum in domestic spending, the more likely direction of our next OCR move is down,” the statement said, warning that the global economic outlook had weakened.
NZD/USD immediately fell 100 pips to 0.6810 and has mostly chopped sideways from there but with a negative bias. It has grinded to a fresh low of 0.6787.
Looking at the chart, today’s decline mimics a similar drop on February 6. That was a day when the RBA shifted to neutral from hawkish. Note that NZD continued to fall for a couple more days before finding support at 0.6725, just above the previous low.
It will need to do something similar to halt the decline this time.
European stocks end the day mixed
Winners and losers today
The Eurioean stocks are closed and the major indices are mixed:
- German Dax, unchanged
- France’s CAC -0.12%
- UK FTSE unchanged
- Spain’s Ibex +0.53%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.27%
- Portugals PSI20, +0.46%
In the 10 year benchmark note sector, yields are mostly lower:
Ranking the strongest and weakest currencies today, the JPY remains the strongest currency followed by the GBP. The NZD remains the runaway weakest after the surprice tilt by the RBNZ last night.
Gold takes a quick dip to $1310
Bonds and stocks in play
There is no clear reason for the quick drop in gold to a low of $1308-83 from $1317.
I think it’s a combination of a few things:
- Stops on a break of $1313
- Volatility in ETFs around the stock market open
- Bond-gold trades being unwound
In the bigger picture it’s immaterial to gold but it’s a sign of the volatile times right now.
Crackdown on short selling roils Turkish money markets
The cost to borrow Turkish liras overnight more than tripled to above 1,000 per cent on Wednesday in a sign of how money markets have seized up after an apparent bid to stymie foreign short sellers.
The offshore overnight swap rate, the cost to investors of exchanging foreign currency for lira over a set period, soared to 1,200 per cent, after hitting 325 per cent, the highest level since 2001, in the previous session. It was 22.6 per cent at the end of last week, Refinitiv data show.
The rising cost highlights what some analysts say is an attempt by Turkey’s government to arrest a decline in the lira, after the currency on Friday faced its heaviest plunge since the economic crisis during the summer of 2018. It rose both on Monday and Tuesday this week. On Wednesday, it repeatedly swung lower by two per cent before repeatedly picking up — an unusual pattern that suggests systematic buying. “The stress is hard to overstate,” said one Turkey-specialist at a European bank in London.
2-year Treasury yields hit thirteen month low as global bond yields continue to slump
Markets are still looking nervous on the week
This goes in tandem to what we saw earlier when German bund yields also hit fresh two-and-a-half year lows. It’s been a rocky week for markets and European equities are more or less flat on the day with softer tones being observed since the open.
What’s particularly worrying about the move in bonds recently is how synchronised the effect is globally and the fact that front-end yields are also being dragged lower as fears of a yield curve inversion continue to rise.
It’s one thing if bond yields globally are falling because of central banks moving to a more dovish stance but it’s a whole other thing if they are falling because markets are beginning to draw a line on an economic downturn/recession risk pricing.
I reckon we’re still in the infancy phase of the latter and that there is still quite some time before markets adopt a full-on panic mode in the coming quarters. However, the thing to consider is that fear spreads like wildfire so if things escalate in the next few months, it can get real ugly real fast.
But let’s put a pin on that for the time being. For today, currencies have barely reacted despite the move in the bond market. That said, we could see more of a follow through move later in US trading so just be mindful of that.
EUR/USD stays pressured as 10-year bund yields fall to fresh 2½ year low
EUR/USD trades to session lows on the day
EUR/USD is slipping a little to start the morning as bond yields continue to track lower across the board. Germany’s 10-year bond yields have fallen to fresh lows last seen in October 2016, inching further into negative territory. Meanwhile, Treasury yields are also dipping slightly with 10-year yields down by 2.8 bps to 2.395% at the moment.
Once again, bonds are continuing to send a different signal to equities today and that continues to spark the debate that is brought upon as mentioned by Giles here.
As for EUR/USD, sellers are in near-term control and price looks to be headed for a further move lower at this point before things get better. Minor support around 1.1220-40 before the 1.1200 handle comes into play.
China & Australis Yields fall 5 and 3 bps respectively and seem to move in lockstep since November
