Archives of “March 2019” month

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China February activity data: IP, retail sales, asset investment out now

  
Analysis, Economy

Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment (excl rural)

  • (January – February combined) Industrial production +5.3% y/y (vs. +5.6% expected)
  • (January – February combined) Retail sales +8.2% (expected +8.2%
  • (January – February combined) Fixed asset investment +6.1% (expected +6.1%)
Combining Jan and Feb works towards removing the seasonal distortions evident in these two months’ data (moveable lunar new year dates).
NBS accompanying remarks:
  • China economy generally steady in Jan-Feb
  • Economy faces external uncertainties
  • Downward pressure still exists
The AUD had traded lower in the lead up to the data, its barely off itsw (small range) session low:
china activity data and the AUD

Oil (ICYMI) … OPEC warning on NOPEC (yes, really)

  
Analysis, Crude

Doing a bit of a catch up and noted this for oil  markets

US legislation that has its aim to prevent OPEC from coordinating production and thus influencing oil prices passed the House Judiciary Committee back in February
  • the NOPEC bill … yep …  the ‘No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act’
Has OPEC a li’l bit perturbed … not surpassingly
This week the cartel warned if the bill passes Congress:
  • OPEC would stop working
  • Member states would boost output to maximum
Causing a crash in oil prices and thus:
  • put US shale producers under pressure

Cable breaks above 1.33 in massive rally

  
Analysis, Forex

Now up 235 pips on the day

Keep an eye on 1.3350 as cable mounts a monumental rally. The chart of the past three days has been an absolute mess with massive moves in both directions.
Now up 235 pips on the day
The climb above the weekly high is bullish but a break of 1.3350 would be the key technical change. That’s going to be tough in the short-term but liquidity is going to be lower in the hours ahead so it could be a dangerous one.

S&P and Nasdaq close up for the 3rd day in a row but give a little back into the close

  
Analysis, US Market

S&P and Nasdaq up 0.69%.

The broad S&P and Nasdaq index closed up for the 3rd day in a row. However, some of the gains were taken back into the close.
  • The S&P index is closing up 19.4 points or 0.69% at 2810.92. The high reached 2821.24. the low extended to 2799.78.
  • The Nasdaq index is closing up 52.375 points or 0.69% at 7643.40. The high reached 7677.07. The low fell to 7619.45
  • The Dow closed up 148.23 points or 0.58% at 25702.85. The high reached 25776.49. The low reached 25571.31.
Boeing planes have now been grounded around the world.  Despite the grounding, the price has closed higher by 0.56% at $377.10. The low for the day reached down to $363.33 before moving higher into the close.

Eurozone January industrial production +1.4% vs +1.0% m/m expected

  
Analysis, Economy

Latest data released by Eurostat – 13 March 2019

  • Prior -0.9%
  • Industrial production WDA -1.1% vs -2.1% y/y expected
  • Prior -4.2%
That’s a beat on expectations and will only add to the recent uptick in Eurozone economic data as of late. That being said, the data here is for January and we’ll have to see if the coming months can offer more of the same in order for markets to feel confident about a shift in the ECB dial down the road.
EUR/USD holds near the highs at 1.1298 currently, just under the 1.1300 handle where near-term price action may be kept limited. EUR/GBP holds lower at 0.8600 as the pound remains firm since the early European morning.

EU27 said to be sticking to tough line on potential Brexit extension

  
  Analysis

According to the FT’s Brussels correspondent

Says that EU27 ambassadors and several members of parliament were briefed by Barnier this morning and that they are standing firm on the notion that the UK has to find a majority for something for Brussels to consider a Brexit extension.

That goes in line with what we’ve heard from Tusk yesterday that the UK must have a ‘credible reason’ to seek a Brexit extension.

EUR/USD languishes just under the 1.13 handle, what is happening?

  
Analysis, Forex

EUR/USD sits in a 7 pips range so far today

EUR/USD H1 13-03

Yup, that is no joke. The pair is only trading between 1.1283 and 1.1290 as there isn’t much volatility in the major currencies space so far today. Price continues to languish just under the 1.1300 handle as buyers continue to try and establish a more bullish near-term bias but is finding resistance around the figure level tough to break above.
Currently, there is the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 1.1290 and mild offers as well as large expiries sitting at the 1.1300 handle that is helping to limit gains for the pair. Meanwhile, price is holding just above the 76.4 retracement level of the ECB drop with buyers looking poised to keep price above 1.1280.
With several key levels hovering around 1.1290-00, that should be a notable attraction level ahead of the US core durable goods orders data later; one that should offer traders something to react upon. For buyers, establishing a move above the 200-hour MA and the 1.1300 handle is key for an extension to the upside.
Despite the ECB’s recent dovish shift, the one thing that the euro has working for it is perhaps positioning data. CFTC’s latest report (as of 5 March) indicates that euro shorts have been the most stretched since December 2016 and that is something that could help to work in the single currency’s favour as sellers look to square some of their positions following a large event like the ECB last week.
EUR CFTC

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Brexit. 29 – 13 = 16 days to go! (ps. there is no way there will be an exit deal by then)

  
  Analysis

For the UK to exit the EU with a ‘deal’ the UK parliament would have to vote to support the deal.

There are 16 days left for that to happen. I don’t know about you, but I am LMFAO thinking that is a serious scenario.
If you’ve been following along, you’ll know too there is no way that will happen. And I reckon you are doing the LMFAO thing right about now too.
I’ll wait.
…
…
…
OK.
What does that leave as serious scenarios?
1. No deal exit.
2. Extension of Article 50.
3. Revocation.
Or some derivative of those.
For sterling:
1. GBP drops big time.
2. GBP get a temporary reprieve.
3. GBP get a temporary reprieve.
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