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European major indices end the day with mixed results

The major European indices are ending the day with mixed results. The UK FTSE moved higher on the back of a lower GBP (helps exports). This despite the dire Brexit road ahead as lawmakers remain deadlocked with no agreeable solutions.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, up 0.09%
  • France’s CAC, -0.1%
  • UK’s FTSE, +0.57%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.21%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.53%
In the 10 year benchmark notes, yields are mostly higher with the UK the exception:
Ups and downs

US economic growth revised lower to 2.2% in Q4

The US economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the final quarter of 2018, adding to the debate about the direction of interest rates this year.

Gross domestic product expanded by 2.2 per cent from a year ago in the final three months of 2018, according to the final revision of the national accounts by the Department of Commerce. That was down from the previous estimate of 2.6 per cent, and also below the 2.4 per cent increase pencilled in by economists in a Thomson Reuters survey.

That pace of growth is the slowest since the first quarter of 2018.

Multiple interest rate rises from the Federal Reserve through the year came home to roost in the final three months of 2018. The impact of these had begun to weigh on housing data, and the then likelihood of the US government going into shutdown mode over President Donald Trump’s attempt to secure funding for his wall on the US-Mexico border may have also weighed on consumer and business sentiment.

The Fed has taken a U-turn on policy in 2019 and last week said it did not expect to raise interest rates this year, citing a weakening global economy. Concerns in financial markets about a global slowdown — as well as the dovish stance from central banks — have fired up a solid rally in sovereign bonds this quarter.

Also out this morning were personal consumption expenditure data. The headline price index held steady at 1.5 per cent in the final quarter, while the core reading, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, ticked up a tenth of a percentage point to 1.8 per cent.

Markets were relatively steady following the data releases. The dollar index remained about 0.4 per cent higher at 97.144, while S&P 500 futures were down 0.1 per cent.

Oil falls after Trump says OPEC should increase the flow of crude

WTI now down $1 on the day

WTI now down $1 on the day
WTI crude is down $1.00 to $58.41. It hit a session low of $58.20 after Trump tweeted that OPEC should pump more.
Trump tweetI don’t know how serious this is and the rebound in oil says it’s not a big deal. There is the NOPEC legislation to contend with and that would be a mess.
A widely held belief among traders is that OPEC increased pumping in Q3 of 2018 in anticipation of heavy curbs against Iran with Saudi Arabia running as aggressively as they could. But Trump pulled the bait-and-switch and gave Iran waivers, thus kneecapping oil and gasoline prices ahead of the midterms. Saudi Arabia won’t be fooled again.

Bond yields inch higher, risk mood improves slightly

10-year Treasury yields are now up by 1 bps on the day

10-year Treasury yields

That has helped USD/JPY move off the lows from near the 110.00 handle to 110.28 currently. Meanwhile, European equities are also trading more positively now posting gains between 0.2% to 0.4% across major indices.
I reckon it’s still too early to call for a turnaround in sentiment just yet but for now this is helping to provide some relief to risk at the very least. US equity futures have also pared losses to be flat on the day currently so we may just get a more neutral tone heading into North American trading later today.

Cable drops to four-day low as May’s offer to resign fails to break Brexit deadlock

Cable drops to its lowest levels since last Friday

Cable 28-03

Price is piercing through support around 1.3147 and is looking to extend a drop towards the 1.3100 handle. With parliament failing to reach a majority in indicative votes yesterday, the fact that May laying out her resignation path and still not getting enough support for her deal leaves us nowhere near a solution to the Brexit saga.
Her fate now rests in the hands of the DUP and that will be a key focus point before we move towards a third meaningful vote tomorrow – potentially.
Bids and swing region support is seen around the 1.3100 handle with further support seen around 1.3080. For now, sellers remain in control of cable after having defended a test of the 100-hour MA (red line) earlier.
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