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Brexit – Draft EU statement confirms April 12 or May 22 the dates

Brexit Summit updated draft conclusions say EU would agree extension to May 22 if Brexit deal approved in UK parliament next week

  • if not, UK would need to inform EU by April 12 on way forward
So what that all means is that the draft EU statement offers an unconditional Brexit delay until April 12.
And a possible longer extension through to until May 22 if the Brexit deal passes the UK Parliament before then.
Its such a shame I did not misspell ‘draft’ as ‘daft’ in the headline. Maybe next time.
Brexit Summit updated draft conclusions say EU would agree extension to May 22 ifBrexit deal approved in UK parliament next week

Here’s what could hurt the Fed’s credibility (and it just happened).

CNBC interviewed DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, a partial report is here.

Reuters have a bit more from Mr. G also, from a phone interview. Gundlach makes very pertinent points indeed:
  • The Fed’s cautious stance on raising interest rates could backfire by creating uncertainty in the economy and hurt the U.S. central bank’s credibility
  • “This U-Turn – on nothing fundamentally changing – is unprecedented”
  • “Three months ago, we were on ‘autopilot’ with the balance sheet – and now the bond market is priced for a rate cut this year. The reversal in their stance is stunning.” 
Will try to dig up a link to Reuters for more….. here we are Reuters
I don’t always agree with what Mr. G says (but acknowledge he is the billionaire 😀 ) but hard to argue with his assessment on this.
CNBC interviewed DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, a partial report is here.

Tech stocks lead Wall Street rally after Fed’s dovish turn

US stocks rose sharply on a boost from the technology sector, while sovereign debt and the US dollar also rallied as investors digested a dovish shift at the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 was 1.1 per cent higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.8 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 1.4 per cent.

The broad rally came one day after the Fed signalled no rate rises this year, bringing its projections more in line with market expectations. Policymakers raised rates four times last year and forecast two additional rate rises for 2019 as recently as December.

The central bank also said it will slow the monthly reduction of its Treasury holdings starting from May with a cut from $30bn to $15bn, and will cease trimming its balance sheet in September — prompting economists at Bank of America to note the Fed has completed its 180-degree turn.

Financials were the lone sector in the red, while technology shares advanced 2.5 per cent on the day. The real estate and consumer discretionary sectors also fuelled the market’s lurch higher.

US government debt remained in demand, pushing yields lower early in the session, after a rally around the Fed announcement. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was mostly unchanged at 2.5369 per cent, after earlier touching a fresh 15-month low.

Investors also moved into eurozone debt, pushing the 10-year German Bund yield back towards zero, down 3.5 bps to 0.047 per cent.

London’s FTSE 100 outperformed wider European equities benchmarks with a rise of 0.9 per cent, helped by sustained pressure on the pound — down a further 0.7 per cent to $1.3101 — as investors tracked the UK’s fraught domestic politics.

With the Brexit deadline looming and no clarity on any extension to it, investors moved into the relative safety of UK government debt and at a faster pace than the rally for its eurozone neighbours. The yield on 10-year gilts fell as low as 1.052 per cent, touching its lowest level since September 2017.

Oil traders are now watching mobile phone traffic at refineries

Bloomberg looks at how far oil traders will take it

During hurricane season last year, oil traders were renting boats and counting the tankers arriving and departing Houston. For years, they have been using satellite technology to estimate stockpiles.
The latest scheme is using geolocation data from mobile apps to track worker traffic in refineries in an attempt to identify problems, accidents and maintenance.
“The ability to sharpen a view, or to really gain an edge, based not on anecdotal but more statistically significant signals, is extremely advantageous,” Tran said in an interview. “There is an information asymmetry in this market.”
It starts in oil but soon big data is going to overwhelm economic data in tracking trends in everything.
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