The first challenge of faith comes from Germany
Archives of “March 22, 2019” day
rssEURUSD trades below 50% midpoint of March range
Moving averages broken on the run lower today
The PMI data out of the EU were much weaker than expexted and the EURUSD raced lower. Looking at the 1 minute chart below, the pair raced below the 100 hour and 100 day MA and the 200 hour MA in the first minute after the report (the run was about 43 pips in the first minute). The fall continued for another 40 pips over the 30 minutes or so to the low of 1.1287. Total move was about 83 pips. Since that low, the pair has had higher lows at 1.1292-94. A move below that intraday floor would be more bearish intraday. The corrective high has reached 1.1319 – that is below the 38.2% of the trend move down (at 1.13266). Sellers are still in control.
Looking at the hourly chart below, the pairs steep fall has also taken the price below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the March low. That comes in at 1.13105. The corrective high has moved above that level, but the last two bars are trying to put a lid near that level.
On the downside, the low today did stall in an area defined by swing levels (at 1.12836-89). The 61.8% is at 1.12784. Those are the next targets on more weakness today. Get below opens up the downside even more.
The data today was shocking and it is reflective in the price action. There is some minor support and traders are taking a breather over the last 5 or so hours. However, the corrective highs have been modest so far. It owuld take a move above the 38.2% of the move down at 1.13266 to likely put a little scare in intraday shorts, but a move above the 200 hour MA at 1.1335 currently (green line in the chart above), to really put some fear in the shorts.
USD/JPY breaks support in fall to lowest since Feb 11 as yield curve inverts
Five week lows for USD/JPY
It’s all about the bond market today. US 10-year yields are down 6.4 basis points to 2.47%. That’s important because the Fed funds rate is 2.25%-2.50% with the effective rate at 2.41%.
The two year and five year have already inverted and are down 4-6 basis points today.
Now markets are faced with a tough choice about whether to pay attention to US economic data, which has been solid. Or to a signal from the bond market that’s one of the best market-based predictors of trouble (but certainly not infallible).
Technically, USD/JPY is down 62 pips to 110.21 in a break of the weekly low and mid-February low.
S&P 500 futures are down 12 points.
Venezuelans throw money on the streets as hyperinflation keeps increasing
Fed’s softer outlook isn’t just pushing Treasury yields lower
Bond yields globally are also being suppressed
The fall below 2% for the first time in New Zealand’s 10-year bond yields isn’t just an isolated incident in markets this week. The fact that Treasury yields are being driven lower after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday is also causing a more pronounced effect in the bond market as yields everywhere are starting to suffer:
- Australia’s 10-year bond yields are just 2 bps of all-time lows of 1.81%
- Japan’s 10-year bond yields fall deeper into negative territory, lowest since late 2016
- Germany’s 10-year bond yields inch closer towards 0%
So, if you’re looking for an argument for a weaker dollar after the Fed, just be wary that other major economies aren’t faring that much better. The fact that 10-year Treasury yields still pay well over 2% should be a reason for investors to not be too worried about prolonged dollar weakness in the bigger picture.
OPEC members need to send the price of oil higher, some not at breakeven yet
That’s according to RBC Capital Markets, they reckon oil is “still below the fiscal breakeven level in a number of OPEC countries”
Looking ahead to the June meeting on OPEC:
- Saudi Arabia will lead OPEC to extend the production cut deal “for the duration of 2019”
- Adds that Russia a reluctant partner in the supply cuts, bt will agree to continuing the arrangement
Pakistan Rupee another all-time closing low
China to impose temporary antidumping measures on some products
On stainless steel billet and hot-rolled stainless steel plate
- from EU, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia
- From March 23
Uber to list shares on NYSE in blockbuster IPO
Uber will list its shares on the New York Stock Exchange in what is expected to be the biggest initial public offering of the year, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The US ride-hailing company is expected to make its paperwork public as soon as April for a listing that bankers and investors think could value it at more than $100bn.
In choosing NYSE, Uber is going to the home of some of the biggest IPOs in history, including Alibaba, General Motors and Visa.
While previous generations of technology companies such as Google and Apple chose rival Nasdaq, technical problems with Facebook’s 2011 listing have shifted the tide in NYSE’s favour. The Big Board has boosted its share of recent marquee tech listings, including Spotify, Snap and Twitter.
Uber also has close connections with NYSE: its chief financial officer, Nelson Chai, was formerly finance chief at the exchange, and John Thain, an Uber board member, was once NYSE’s CEO.
Uber’s IPO is one of a number of hotly anticipated Silicon Valley listings expected in the coming months. Its smaller US rival Lyft plans to list its shares on Nasdaq next week.
Uber declined to comment. The choice of exchange was first reported by Bloomberg.
US sanctions 2 Chinese shippers over North Korea trade
A pair of Chinese shipping companies have been blacklisted by American authorities for allegedly helping North Korea evade U.S. and international sanctions over its nuclear and missile programs, tightening the Trump administration’s net as it pushes denuclearization talks with Pyongyang.
Dalian Haibo International Freight was designated for providing goods and services for Paeksol Trading, overseen by North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau, the Treasury Department said Thursday. Paeksol has been subject to U.S. and United Nations sections.
Liaoning Danxing International Forwarding is alleged to have helped North Korean officials in the European Union operate and purchase goods for their government via deception.
The sanctions are the first since the abrupt end to the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un last month in Hanoi.
“Treasury will continue to enforce our sanctions, and we are making it explicitly clear that shipping companies employing deceptive tactics to mask illicit trade with North Korea expose themselves to great risk,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement.
The Treasury and State departments also named 18 vessels suspected of involvement in ship-to-ship transfers with North Korean tankers, along with 49 vessels believed to have exported North Korean coal since new U.N. sanctions were imposed on Aug. 5, 2017. The ships are not limited to North Korean vessels, with others under the flags of such countries as Sierra Leone.