Archives of “March 11, 2019” day

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The London fix and stock close is still to come

  
  Analysis

In case you care and forgot…

In case you care and forgot, the US changed their clocks this weekend.  London and Europe won’t do it until March 31.
What does that mean for you and I….
Well if you are in London, the US releases come out an hour earlier. So the typical 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT releases come out at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.  The same flows through for the 10 AM ET releases. They will be released at 1400 GMT.
From the US perspective, the London 4 PM fixing – which can influence price action – is at an 12 PM ET (vs 11 PM ET).
The stock closes in Europe are at 12:30 PM ET instead of the usual 11:30 AM ET close time.
I guess it also means, US traders will get an extra hour of Brexit headlines.
How all this plays out in Asian is beyond by pay scale, but what  I do know is at FXL, US hours will stay the same for Adam and I, Eamonn and Justin will go off our schedule.
If I had a wish, all nations of the world would change their clocks on the same day.  What you you think?

Saudi Arabia said to extend deeper-than-agreed oil cuts into April

  
Analysis, Crude

According to a Saudi official cited by Bloomberg and Reuters

Oil
  • Saudi Arabia plans to cut April crude oil exports to below 7 million bpd
  • That comes despite strong demand
  • Will keep oil production “well below” 10 million bpd
The headlines here is giving oil a bit more of a boost to session highs currently, with WTI up by nearly 1% now to $56.62. And it’s no surprise again that it is Saudi Arabia doing the heavy lifting here, though it remains to be seen if this will help convince other OPEC+ producers to stick to the current output cuts agreement.

Nikkei 225 closes 0.47% higher at 21,125.09

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Tokyo’s main index climbs in mixed Asian trading

Nikkei 11-03

Japanese stocks were mostly more buoyant despite mixed tones in Asian equities today, as the major benchmarks in the region rose while smaller indices posted declines. The Nikkei is mainly taking a cue from better Chinese stocks – Hang Seng in particular is boosted by tech and insurance stocks, helping sentiment.

There isn’t much else to gather from the mixed tones in Asia as risk sentiment remains rather tepid. US equity futures are trading flat on the day so far and the late recovery in Friday trade should see European equities open around flat to mildly higher levels, given the backdrop of a more positive session for Chinese stocks.

ECB’s Coeure: Italy is only Eurozone country in technical recession

  
Analysis, Economy

He’s not technically wrong, though

  • There is a lack of progress in the Italian jobs market
  • Italy must be part of Europe debate
  • ECB still sees consistent growth in the region but less strong
While Italy is suffering from economic isolation, the tough part is that it is also being singled out politically ahead of the European parliamentary elections in May. And Coeure’s comments here is just further proof of that.
EU recession
With regards to economic performance, while Italy is the standout in terms of how poor the economy is faring, it’s not to say that others are in a beaming state either. So, that’s something to be wary about and could come back and bite Coeure in the back side later.

Fed’s Powell: Patience means FOMC is in no hurry to change rates

  
  Analysis

Powell on 60 Minutes

Powell on 60 Minutes
  • Policy rate now “roughly neutral”
  • Powell says he doesn’t believe Trump has the power to fire him
  • Says plans to serve his 4 year term
  • China, Brexit and Europe are risks to US economy
  • Still feels there will be materially positive growth in EU
  • Main risks to US are from abroad
  • We think the US outlook is a positive one
  • Repeats that economy is in a good place
  • Says watching retail sales after a weak December but that there is some evidence of a rebound in January
  • Notes Chinese steps to support growth
  • Financial conditions ‘generally healthy’
  • Stock market valuations mostly at ‘normal’ long-term levels
  • Large number of auto loan defaults is a product of the fact that the number of auto loans is much higher
Looking at rates, there isn’t much to change the outlook here for an extended pause. There is a definite and growing belief at the Fed that the US is a lone strong economy but the inference is that US growth alone wont’ be enough to spark rate hikes.
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