Latest Reuters poll of over 70 currency strategists taken Feb 28-March 6
- USD expected to weaken
- EUR/USD forecast at $1.19 in a year
Strategists said a positive outcome to U.S.-China trade negotiations was already priced in
- not likely to give the USD a lift
Reuters with a comment from MUFG
- “As we pointed out at the start of this year, we see the relative cyclical support for the dollar being less favourable this year than last and that suggests to us some dollar depreciation ahead. The end of balance sheet shrinkage will reinforce a much less active Fed on raising the fed funds rate
- In addition, there is already evidence of foreign investors being more reluctant to invest in U.S. portfolio securities and we view this reduced appetite as partly a consequence of the level of the U.S. dollar and partly on concerns over the deteriorating budget deficit outlook.”