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Good Times -Bad Times

Sometimes in trading you have to pick yourself up and dust yourself off. It is the simple truth and anyone who has been involved in the game for longer than a cup of coffee will tell you the same. There will be times when you are caught with a blow up, caught in a squeeze or simply caught leaning in the wrong direction but over the years what I have learned is it is always about getting back into the ring for another round.

It’s important to have a routine for handling those times when not only your financial capital gets bitten but your emotional capital sinks as well.

1) Reposition:  Whether you are caught in a downturn or short squeeze, removing the position is often the best way to remain objective. So often when people start to see a position run against them they freeze up and start to rely on hope rather than remaining in control of the trade. When I see stocks breaking down or acting poorly, they are sold immediately and I am able to start fresh.

2) Check the Charts and your Bias:  I have written many times before that price action is never wrong. If you are caught on the wrong side of price action it is a must to re-evaluate the charts you are viewing and check any bias you may have. It is imperative to embrace the prevailing direction and avoid seeing what is not there. Having raised cash and avoiding any further significant draw, take a fresh look at the action and once again analyze your position accordingly. (more…)

Mastering the Trade, quotes by John F. Carter

The quotes below are provided by John F. Carter, master day trader; pulled directly from his new book Mastering the Trade.

This may be the best quote of all:
“The financial markets are naturally set up to take advantage of and prey upon human nature. As a result, markets initiate major intraday and swing moves with as few traders participating as possible. A trader who does not understand how this works is destined to lose money”

“The financial markets are truly the most democratic places on earth. It doesn’t matter if a trader is male or female, white or black, American or Iraqi, Republican or Democrat. It’s all based on skill.”

“A trader, once in a position, can deceive himself or herself into believing anything that helps reinforce the notion that he or she is right”

“…professional traders understand this all too well, and they set up their trade parameters to take advantage of these situations, specifically preying on the traders who haven’t figured out why they lose”

“…markets don’t move because they want to. They move because they have to.”

“After all, the money doesn’t just disappear. It simply flows into another account – an account that utilizes setups that specifically take advantage of human nature.” (more…)

Nuggets of Wisdom from Jesse Livermore, Greatest Trader Ever

Here are some valuable nuggets I have gleaned from the book, “How to Trade Stocks,” by Jesse Livermore, with added material from Richard Smitten. It’s published by Traders Press and is available at Amazon.com. Most of the nuggets below are direct quotes from Livermore, himself.

• “All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical (technical) formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.”

• “The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”

• Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.

• Livermore’s money made in speculation came from “commitments in a stock or commodity showing a profit right from the start.” Don’t hang on to a losing position for very long.

• “It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.”

• “Remember this: When you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes.”

• “When a margin call reaches you, close your account. Never meet a margin call. You are on the wrong side of a market. Why send good money after bad? Keep that good money for another day.”

• Livermore coined what he called “Pivotal Points” in a market or a stock. Basically, they were: (1) Price levels at which the stock or market reversed course previously–in other words, previous major tops or bottoms; and (2) psychological price levels such as 50 or 100, 200, etc. He would buy a stock or commodity that saw a price breakout above the Pivotal Point, and sell a stock or commodity that saw a price breakout below a Pivotal Point.

• “Successful traders always follow the line of least resistance. Follow the trend. The trend is your friend.”

• A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong–opinions often are.

• Few people succeed in the market because they have no patience. They have a strong desire to get rich quickly.

• “I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are being repeated. They are recurring patterns that appear over and over, with slight variations. This is because markets are driven by humans — and human nature never changes.”

• When you make a trade, “you should have a clear target where to sell if the market moves against you. And you must obey your rules! Never sustain a loss of more than 10% of your capital. Losses are twice as expensive to make up. I always established a stop before making a trade.”

• “I am fully aware that of the millions of people who speculate in the markets, few people spend full time involved in the art of speculation. Yet, as far as I’m concerned it is a full-time job — perhaps even more than a job. Perhaps it is a vocation, where many are called but few are singled out for success.” (more…)

10 Trading Points

1) When you see a market extended to the upside or downside, in which many new buyers or sellers pile in at the new highs or lows, be on the lookout for opportunities to fade the move. The market, on average, doesn’t reward those who chase highs or lows or who panic out at price extremes.
2) A market that trades above or below its value area on weak volume is likely to return to that value area. A breakout turns into a trend when higher/lower prices attract market participation.
3) A broad, high volume breakout move to new highs or lows from an extended range is more likely to continue in its breakout direction (and move significantly in its breakout direction) than a narrow, low volume breakout move from a briefer range. Such moves are sustained by the larger number of traders on the wrong side of the market who will have to cover their positions, thus accentuating the breakout move.
4) A breakout move accompanied by a fundamental catalyst (earnings report, news event, shift in interest rates, currency movement) is more likely to continue in its breakout direction than a breakout move that occurs without other asset repricing. Large institutional traders are more likely to reprice equities in the face of significant fundamental drivers in correlated markets.
5) Don’t chase price highs or lows; sell when buyers take their turn and can’t move the market highs; buy when the sellers take their turn and can’t move the market lower.

6) Identify what the market’s largest traders are doing and go with it on weak countertrend action. The large traders account for the majority of the market’s volume and volatility. If they are buying or selling stocks, you don’t want to get caught fighting them. Wait for pullbacks to enter in the direction of the institutions.
7) If it’s a slow market (relatively few large traders), consider the possibility of range bound action. Low volume means low volatility, and that is generally associated with relatively narrow price ranges. Take profits quickly in such markets and set targets modestly; moves tend to reverse readily.
8) If it’s a busy market (relatively many large traders), consider the possibility of volatile market action. A market with high volume means that large traders will be capable of pushing price up and down to a greater degree than average. Adjust your stops and targets to account for this incremental volatility.
9) If many sectors don’t participate in a new high or low for the broad market index, consider fading the new high or low. A trend with staying power will tend to lift or depress all major stocks/sectors. When many issues or sectors don’t participate in a market move, the buying or selling in the index is often confined to a few issues that are highly weighted. Such moves generally are not sustained.
10) If you anticipate a broad move by equities, consider trading the most volatile indexes and the sectors with greatest relative strength. What you trade is just as important to results as the timing of trades. Go with the dominant market themes unless you have tangible evidence that those themes have changed.

Deadly Emotions

REVENGE, we all know it and have done it. It happens when you are tricked by the market and decide to take another trade before looking at the big picture, then BAM you are on the wrong side of the trade again. Pissed off and refusing to move while your money is going further down the drain. Scared to let go for fear that you are going to get tricked again.

PANIC, that is when you lack the confidence to enter or ride a profitable trade. This happens when you have taken some hits and now you lack the confidence to trade profitably.

IMPATIENCE, this happens when you can’t wait for a proper trade set-up and jump on a price hiccup/retracement, often finding yourself on the wrong side of the trade.

ANGER, you know that feeling that comes over you when you have taken a hit or two and you want to kill your computer.

SELF PITY, when you come to the market hoping for crumbs and get none, and can’t see why THEY won’t let you have just a little bit.

DEPRESSION, something perhaps outside of the market has you at an extreme low point.

INDIFFERENCE, it happens when you have gotten hit so many times that you just don’t care any more because no matter what you can win any way.

All of these emotions work hard against you clouding your clarity and give other traders the advantage over you.

If you are experiencing any of these emotions when you enter your platform; abandon your trading until you have yourself under control and have the clarity of mind to trade. Not doing so greatly increases your chances of handing your money over to a trader who is more emotionally fit and controlled than you are.

We are all human and it happens to us all, but what weighs heavy in your mind will often weigh heavily in your pocket.

Come to your trading platform, well rested, focused and ready to trade. You may take an occasional hit so what it is a LESSON. We all get them and if we learn the lesson that the loss has taught us; it will make us much better traders.

DO NOT TRADE YOUR EMOTIONS!!!!!—-

Why do we as traders hold on to our losses?

Hope,
Fear,
Anger,
Apathy,
Confusion,

When we see ourselves on the wrong side of a trade, we hold on with the thought that the market will soon come back in our favor, because most of the time it does. Hope, one of the greatest gift’s GOD has given us, can get you killed in the market.

The fear that when we let go of that loss, price is going to come back in our favor and we would have taken that hit for nothing.

The thought that we can’t take this loss, because we don’t want to give back some of our profits. Then the loss becomes so large that we really can’t afford to take it, so we leave it in the hands on the market hoping for mercy. In that situation, believe me the market is going to run over You every chance it gets, and will wipe You out as many times as possible. As generous as it is on the right side of the trade, it is a ravenous beast with no mercy on the other.

You have done all of Your analysis right, You have waited for a proper trade set-up and everything says that You have the advantage, You get in the market and the trade goes against you, and You are madder than hell because You were right, so You refuse to cut the loss. Let me say that the market loves that, because Your anger is only giving them more of your hard earned money. Your analysis can be 100% perfect and the market can still go against You, because the market will do as it pleases. It leads and You follow, but make no mistake, the same market that lines your pockets so fully can also turn on you like a mad dog.

Another thing that happens when a loss becomes too large is that thought that “I should have cut it at Rs1000.00, now it is Rs1,0000”. Then the apathy sets in and You just don’t care what happens any more. ‘If it comes around fine’, or ‘if I get wiped out so what’, ‘whatever’, then You turn off your screen and You do something else, but You can’t stop worrying about that loss that is looming over You larger than life. It is so much better for you to cut a loss than to have the market cut it for You.

The other thing is the confusion about when to cut a loss, it can get to be hard, but having a predefined stop before your entry or soon after or a physical SL, will make taking a hit much easier. I never like to try to define people’s SL’s because it is a matter of risk tolerance. You know how much You can afford to loss, and Zero is not an option, while none of us want to lose anything, it is just not realistic in this game. There are people who were prosperous for years in the market and got wiped out in single day or week because they could not stand to take a loss. As long as You have money, you have money to make more money, but when your money is gone, you have to get up from the table.

These things are easy to say in theory but hard to do practically, it is I think the hardest discipline that a trader learns, but we must learn to cut losses quickly. The heartache and money I could have saved by cutting my losses quickly and going in the direction that price was moving would be enough for that new Camaro that I love.

That is the great thing about the market, if You survive to play another day, You eventually get it.

CUT YOUR LOSSES QUICKLY (^_^)!!!!!!!!!!!

A failed long usually makes a good short, and a failed short usually means a good long (^_^). There is always good money to be made in the market, just don’t be the one because of your false hope, or stubbornness, that the market is making money off of. Don’t allow the market to feed on your families hard earned money cut losses quickly!!!!!!!!!!

Bill Lipschutz-Trading Quotes

Missing an opportunity is as bad as being on the wrong side of a trade. Some people say (after they have the opportunity to realize a profit) “I was only playing with the market’s money.” That’s the most ridiculous thing I ever heard.

When you’re in a losing streak, your ability to properly assimilate and analyze information starts to become distorted because of the impairment of the confidence factor, which is a by-product of a losing streak. You have to work very hard to restore that confidence, and cutting back trading size helps achieve that goal.

I don’t have a problem letting my profits run, which many traders do. You have to be able to let your profits run. I don’t think you can consistently be a winner trading if you’re banking on being right more than 50 percent of the time. You have to figure out how to make money by being right only 20 to 30 percent of the time.

Successful traders constantly ask themselves: What am I doing right? What am I doing wrong? How can I do what I am doing better? How can I get more information? Courage is a quality important to excel as a trader. It’s not enough to simply have the insight to see something apart from the rest of the crowd, you also need to have the courage to act on it and stay with it.

It’s very difficult to be different from the rest of the crowd the majority of the time, which by definition is what you’re doing if you’re a successful trader.

So many people want the positive rewards of being a successful trader without being willing to go through the commitment and pain. And there’s a lot of pain.

Avoid the temptation of wanting to be completely right.

Bill Lipschutz :Trading Quotes

 

Missing an opportunity is as bad as being on the wrong side of a trade. Some people say (after they have the opportunity to realize a profit) “I was only playing with the market’s money.” That’s the most ridiculous thing I ever heard.

When you’re in a losing streak, your ability to properly assimilate and analyze information starts to become distorted because of the impairment of the confidence factor, which is a by-product of a losing streak. You have to work very hard to restore that confidence, and cutting back trading size helps achieve that goal.

I don’t have a problem letting my profits run, which many traders do. You have to be able to let your profits run. I don’t think you can consistently be a winner trading if you’re banking on being right more than 50 percent of the time. You have to figure out how to make money by being right only 20 to 30 percent of the time.

Successful traders constantly ask themselves: What am I doing right? What am I doing wrong? How can I do what I am doing better? How can I get more information? Courage is a quality important to excel as a trader. It’s not enough to simply have the insight to see something apart from the rest of the crowd, you also need to have the courage to act on it and stay with it.

It’s very difficult to be different from the rest of the crowd the majority of the time, which by definition is what you’re doing if you’re a successful trader.

So many people want the positive rewards of being a successful trader without being willing to go through the commitment and pain. And there’s a lot of pain.

Avoid the temptation of wanting to be completely right.


"Some Rules for Living Applied to Trading"

I ran across these rules for living, and thought they apply beautifully to the process of trading successfully.  They are as follows:

  1. Show up.
  2. Pay attention.
  3. Live your truth.
  4. Do your best.
  5. Don’t be attached to the outcome.

Show up.  Woody Allen has said 90% of the story is showing up.  And I think that can be true for trading.  Showing up means being prepared and ready before the market opens.  It means getting your entry and exit orders in the market in a timely fashion.  You’ve done your research, and you’re clear about your intentions.

Pay attention.    Watch the price action.  Be cognizant of what your chosen indicators are saying.  Know what news is breaking, and watch the market’s reaction to the news.  Be alert to twists and turns in market direction.  Don’t wander off mentally or physically.

Live your truth.  Your truth could be fundamental or technical or a combination of the two.  But if you don’t trade in accordance with your guidelines, you can get yourself on the wrong side of the situation and yourself.  Be who you say you are as a trader.  Are you honest, perceptive, courageous, steady, and disciplined?  Are you trading in the manner you have chosen or committed to trade.

Do your best.  Honestly, all you can do is your best.  But your best can get better as you practice and learn.  Learn from your mistakes, and forgive yourself past digressions.  Each day is a new day, and each day brings new opportunities.  It’s your job to capture what you can of the opportunities even as you rigorously protect your capital.

Don’t be attached to the outcome.  This is the hard part, and this is the essential part.  The results of any given trade or trading day are really not indicative of whether or not you will be profitable.  One trade or day is simply not the measure of success, and is really irrelevant.  If you’re showing up, and paying attention, and living your viable truth, and doing your best, you can accept whatever outcome develops.  Of course, if the outcome is disastrous over time, you need to go back to the drawing board and develop better methods.