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Crises and Panics

Came across an interesting pamphlet on Crises and Panics by James L. Fraser. It’s an interesting if brief history up through the early 60s. I thought I would share his comments on identifying traits and causes of panics/crises. I am paraphrasing a bit and not completely quoting him on each bullet point here. Bear in mind, this was written in 1965.

Traits:
1) Extravagance of living, first by a few, and then by many…
2) General belief in impregnable prosperity…
3) Lavish private expenditures, which appear to be natural offshoots of immense federal projects…
4) An appetite for speculation
5) Easy money and availability of credit

Indications of impending crises:
1) Rising prices
2) Increased activity of established businesses seeking more production, more sales…
3) Active loan demand
4) Strong increase in labor employment
5) Extravagant public and private expenditures
6) Speculative mania, together with dishonest methods, fraud
7) Labor strikes and increased general violence / social instability
8) Excessive pride of opinion, especially an “American First” attitude (more…)

There is A Solution for Everything…..

There was a father who left 17 camels as an asset for his three sons.camel

When the father passed away, his sons opened up the will.

The Will of the father stated that the eldest son should get half of 17 camels while the middle son should be given 1/3rd (one-third). The youngest son should be given 1/9th (one-ninth) of the 17 camels.

As it is not possible to divide 17 into half or 17 by 3 or 17 by 9, three sons started to fight with each other. So, the three sons decided to go to a wise man.

The wise man listened patiently about the Will.

The wise man, after giving this thought, brought one camel of his own and added the same to 17. That increased the total to 18 camels.

Now, he started reading the deceased father’s will.

Half of 18 = 9. So he gave the eldest son 9 camels

1/3rd of 18 = 6. So he gave the middle son 6 camels

1/9th of 18 = 2. So he gave the youngest son 2 camels.

Now add this up: 9 plus 6 plus 2 is 17 and this leaves one camel, which the wise man took away.

The attitude of negotiation and problem solving is to find the 18th camel i.e. the common ground. Once a person is able to find the common ground the issue is resolved. It is difficult at times. However, to reach a solution, the first step is to believe that there is a solution. If we think that there is no solution, we won’t be able to reach any!

Gratitude

Wanna thank you, Wanna thank you
Freedom in stride, love, peace of mind
We just wanna give Gratitude – Earth Wind & Fire

Thank you, Lord, for what you’ve done for me
Thank you, Lord, for what you’re doing now
Thank you, Lord, for ev’ry little thing
Thank you, Lord, for you made me sing – Bob Marley

“He is a wise man who does not grieve for the things which he has not, but rejoices for those which he has” – Epictetus

If you book 10 points on the day are you the type of trader that is mad about the 15 pts left on the table or grateful about the 10 you pocketed? A consistently profitable trader is a continuously grateful trader. When you are grateful for what you have you operate out of a state of abundance. How many times have you become upset about missing a trade you were waiting for, or about how many points you left on the table, or about getting stopped at the extreme of a move only to see the trade reverse in your favor? It happens to all of us and we all do it. It is normal to think we should have booked more profits or done better – that is a characteristic of most traders – we are never satisfied and always think we can improve on our performance. The key is to be thankful and grateful for what we do get. By maintaining a thankful and grateful mindset it opens the way for abundance and blessings to come into your life.