One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading. (more…)
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One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading. Barista technique and Trading
I start my day with a cup of coffee, everyday. A cup of freshly ground, and brew Espresso or Long Black is essential. I am not a coffee expert, but I am a coffee lover. I have my grinder and Espresso machine at home. Barista technique breaks down into three time scales and skill levels:
The first is the minute or so spent grinding and making the shot. The key here is acquiring the skills to make shots consistently. One should be able to turn out four or five in a row with virtually the same timing, volume, color, crema and taste. This skill is a physical thing, that is, it’s a matter of training and practice rather than learning.
The second is the time spent carefully tasting an espresso or series of espressos, identifying the flavor balance and defects, and making adjustments to ones pull or machines to correct them. The “dialing-in” process for a new blend usually requires a series of shots to get a satisfactory result, and can proceed over several days to fine tune it. To do this well, one needs to have experience in tasting and analyzing good espresso. One also needs to know how changes in extraction variables and machine settings affect the espresso’s taste.
The third is acquiring experience and informed preferences with a wide range of coffees, blends, espresso equipment, and alternative techniques. If you or someone you’re serving wants an espresso with a specific pallette of flavors; you will know how to provide it. Home roasting and blending helps in this. So does visiting good cafés and roasteries, and talking with the knowledgeable people there.
I see a lot of similarities to trading. What do you think? Start making coffee…
ARE YOU A GAMBLER?
1) The Gambler Trades Through Earnings Reports: If you are a trader (as opposed to an investor) and decide to hold a stock/option position through earnings you are gambling. Due to the very nature of earnings reports your position could gap down or up; therefore, you are choosing to take a big chance (e.g., gamble) on what that stock will do post earnings. Sure, you could get lucky and win big, but you could also lose big. Long term success in the stock market is not about luck, but about skill. There will always be another trade on another day. Think before you trade making sure the odds (i.e. the probabilities) are with you, not against you.
2) The Gambler Trades Without A Plan: If you make your trading decisions based on the morning news, on the latest BLUE CHANNELS story, on a new strategy not yet tested, or on a market that you have never traded, then you are gambling. The successful trader has an army of stocks to trade, the weapons suited for that army, and a time tested trading strategy in place before a position is considered. When everything is going according to plan then and only then will it be time to pull the trigger.
3) The Gambler Goes ALL IN and Risks Losing It All: If you trade ALL IN, believing your trading edge is 100% foolproof, then you are a gambler. There is no sure thing in the stock market. There are just too many variables and too many traders who can and will disagree with your perfect signal. The disciplined trader trades a small percentage of his account balance and believes in probabilities, not a sure thing, knowing that trading is not about being right but about making money.
It is best to leave gambling to the casinos where the house has the advantage. In trading, the trader who has the focus, patience, and discipline to follow a strategy will have the advantage over those who don’t every time. We trade the trader, not the market and when we make money it is usually when we trade against the gambling trader.
Concept of Risk
Successful trading has absolutely nothing to do with making money and everything to do with trading successfully. Making money will only ever be a by-product of successful trading. Successful trading is not a by-product of making money. When you attach trading to money and money to emotions and emotions to money you’ll have taken your first loss but you won’t know it yet.
Trading has everything to do with personal psychology, rules, systems, discipline, focus and skill. Like anything else that’s skill based, once you start it takes time and practice to become skilful. Ultimately trading is about making decisions between two choices, to buy or sell. As simple as these two choices are the variables that effect the decisions surrounding them can be as complex as the human mind can make them.