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Waiting for the market to make sense

There seems to be an ever increasing chatter about how the market is going to revert to the mean or it is broken or it is undervalued. Whatever it is let me remind you of two important ideas that are found in about any book you will ever read around finance and investing.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent and the market’s goal is to extract the most money from the largest group of people.

If I could change the first quote it would say: The market is almost always irrational but when it is rational it pays you enough to forget.

Obviously not an easy sell if you running money. But that does not mean you can not be profitable. In fact, it means the exact opposite. The market gives everyone a chance to win but how much and what you did leading up to that point is the difference.

I would change the second quote to read: The goal of a market is to be healthy, when it is searching for participation equilibrium much money changes hands often to the few that are prepared.

There are many unnatural things that happen to a market. But underlying it wants to find participation equilibrium. It means cutting out the weakest leading the strong lower and allowing the few to pull everything higher. The problem is cycles are getting shorter and power is not as concentrated. If you are confused, imagine how confused the market must be.

Do I think it is important to have those conversations from the start of the post? Yes. But they should be focused on what to do. If the market does x I will look to do y or z and will be more focused on doing z but if m happens I will look more closely at y. (more…)

Uncertainty in Trading

You just have to deal with it. But there are times where your conviction levels go through the roof. You know damned well that should should be trading. You are comfortable with what you see. Are you taking action?
 
There are other times where your
conviction level is low, or not there at all. There is a split second cue in the back of your brain that says “I don’t know what is going on here”. Are you listening to it and backing off? Or are you letting your conscious mind, emotions/greed etc. take over?
The probability for a successful outcome shares a positive correlation with what level your ‘conviction meter’ is. If its high, your chances of a successful outcome increase. If low, you can imagine just as poor of a result.
Listen to your level of conviction. If it is strong, act upon it. If weak or in question, don’t do anything at all. Typically, you have a short window of opportunity to decide where you stand. Take advantage of it.
 
 

Does Failure Motivate you ?

MOTIVATEI’ve been reading a wondeful book by Jerry Stocking titled Laighing with God.In that book the following dilemma is broght up ,and I’m going to rewrite the conversation a little to make it pertinent to trading/investing.

God :Do you want to win without losing ?

Trader :Of course.

God :If you win ,you must lose as well.But you weren’t honest with me.Your saud that you’d like to just win.If that were the case ,you’d win much  more often.

The possibility of failure motivates you much more than the possibility of success.your whole society thrices on failure  or at least the fear of lossing.If there were not the possibility of losing you could not take any credit for success.Making money in the markets would seen meaningless for you. (more…)

Irrational and Odd Behaviors of Traders

Anchoring: our habit of focusing on one salient point and ignoring all others, such as the price at which we buy a stock.

Bias Blind Spot: we agree that everyone else is biased, but not ourselves.

Confirmation Bias: we interpret evidence to support our prior beliefs and, if all else fails, we ignore evidence that contradicts it.

Disposition Effect: we prefer to sell shares whose value has increased and keep those whose value’s dropped.

Framing: the way a question or situation is framed can determine your response.

Fundamental Attribution Error: we attribute success to our own skill and failure to everyone else’s lack of it.

Herding: we tend to flock together, especially under conditions of uncertainty.

Illusion of Control: we do things that make us feel in control, even if we’re not.

Loss Aversion: we do stupid things to avoid realizing a loss.

Overconfidence: we’re way too confident in our abilities, which seems to be an in-built bias that we’re unable to overcome without excessive effort.

WHAT WALL STREET CAN LEARN FROM COWBOYS

James P. Owen, a 40 year veteran on Wall Street, has written a interesting book entitled Cowboy Ethics: What Wall Street Can Learn From the Code of the West.  In it he lists the 10 codes of the working cowboy, explaining how each code can be a source of inspiration for all those involved in Wall Street, from traders to institutions.  Along with the message are beautiful photographs throughout by David Stoecklein.  You could actually classify this as a trader’s coffee table book.  Here are the codes:

1.  Live Each Day With Courage.  Real courage is being scared to death and saddling up anyway, setting aside the fear of the unknown knowing there is work to be done.

2.  Take Pride in Your Work.  Cowboying doesn’t build character, it reveals it.  Stock trading brings out what is already there: pride in the preparation.

3.  Always Finish What You Start.  When you’re riding through hell…keep riding.  Good stock traders, like cowboys, never quit in the face of uncertainty.

4.  Do What Has to be Done.  The true test of a man’s honor was how much he would risk to keep it intact.  Stock trading is about taking responsibility for decisions and results, just like the cowboys.

5.  Be Tough, But Fair.  The Golden Rule was nothing less than a key to survival.  Cowboys always treated others with respect, especially those who differed.  Should we not do the same, whether bull or bear?

6.  When You Make a Promise Keep It.  A man is only as good as his word.  You have no one to trust but yourself and when you have rules they are there for you to follow.  If you do not, then you have broken a promise to yourself.  Same with traders as with cowboys.

7.  Ride For The Brand. The cowboy’s greatest devotion was to his calling and his way of life.  If you have clients, the clients come first; if you have family depending on your discipline, then they come first.  Period.

8.  Talk Less and Say More.  When there’s nothing more to say, don’t be saying it. No room for bragging or boasting out on the range or in the market.  Your work, devotion, and steadfastness speaks for itself.  Enough said.

9.  Remember That Some Things Are Not For Sale.  To the cowboy, the best things in life aren’t “things.”  What matters most on the range and in the trading room is not what money can buy but what can’t be bought.  Reputation is all that really matters.

10.  Know Where to Draw the Line.  There is right and there is wrong, and nothing in between.  Insider trading, whispers, rumors, secret deals behind close doors, and all manner of questionable activities may be all around us but we do not have to embrace them as our own.

Of all the places to learn a few lessons about investing and ourselves, is it not refreshing to find a few on the open range from a time not so long ago?

More Research Confirms The Benefits Of Overconfidence

over-confidenceOverconfidence may cause people to invest too much in volatile stocks because such stocks have a greater diversity of beliefs, and so if people dismiss the objectively bad odds of beating the market, such people will be drawn to stocks where they are in the extremum, and highly volatile stocks have the most biased extremums.  One might think these people are irrational, but in the big picture people with this bias actually have a huge advantage, why Danny Kahneman said it’s the bias he most wants his children to have.
Two economists at Washington State University looked at twitter accounts for sports prognosticators and found that confidence was much more important than accuracy in generating followers. Their sad conclusion: Pundits have a false sense of confidence because that’s what the public, seeking to avoid the stress of uncertainty, craves. In other words, to be popular (read: successful), you need to be unwarrantedly confident. This takes either an amoral cognitive dissonance or ignorance. (more…)

Why Do I Want To Trade?

“I Want To Find Out Who I Really Am”

When you trade your monitor will do a funny thing. It will become a mirror. A special type of mirror. A mirror that reflects your self-confidence, your self-esteem, your self-worth. The numbers and lines you see on your screen are just that, numbers and lines. Market information. At your choosing, when you decide to become part of those numbers and lines (putting on/off the trade) a sort of test begins. A test about you.

If you see the test as threatening, you will feel threatened. If you see the test as war, you will be engaging in war. If you see the test as one more failure, you will fail. If you see the test as the need to prove yourself right, you will administered the pain of being wrong. If you see the test as certainty, you will be rudely introduced to uncertainty. If you see the test as a battle of wills, you will sacrifice your soul. If you see the test as fear or loss of money, you will be giving away your scared money.

If you see and believe the test to be an exchange of information, you now become the one to confirm or deny information. If you believe the test to be one of giving up what you want in order to get it, you will get it. Get it?

There is an irony in trading of both price and time. It is exactly what you have to give of yourself in order to trade it with understanding.

P.S. There are only two types of traders, “Long Lived” and “Short Lived.” Both know the markets well. The “Longed Lived” just choose know “Themselves” better.Anyone who contemplates trading should ask themselves one simple question…..”Why Do I Want To Trade?” There are many wrong answers to this question, and only one right one…..

What Predictions Say About Us

An excerpt:

…predictions are a way of demonstrating knowledge. Of course, in most things, a successful demonstration involves being right. In golf, a good argument will suffice. Most compellingly, human beings are wired to predict. In ancient times predictions served as psychological counterweight to the extreme uncertainty of life. As we’ve gained more control over daily existence, predictions help encourage the illusion that we are in charge of our own destiny. The more that is unknown, the greater the urge to predict. As the recently departed futurist author Ray Bradbury once said, “Mysteries abound where most we seek for answers.”

If you can find yourself comfortable not trying to predict daily life (and trading) there is a nice reward for you.