Archives of “uncertainties” tag

rss

Good Vs. Great Trading

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Good traders are able to identify opportunities in the market, plan trades, execute trades, and manage trades at a reasonable level. A good trader identifies the opportunity, plans the trade, and executes the trade. He takes his losses with discipline. One might think that great traders are similar to good traders but just better. The reality is that great traders are distinctly different from good traders. The difference is not merely a difference in measure but a difference in kind.

Great trading is actually much closer to gambling. One of the key differences between great trading and good trading is that great traders don’t just play the odds: great traders play the unknown. The market simply isn’t predictable enough – enough of the time — to allow for the type of returns that great traders seek. So, great traders are much more likely to be going out into that unknown space. This seeking out the unknown always involves a cost. The cost for greatness is the potential for loss, even significant loss. A great trader will typically take more risks. The risks could involve taking trades with higher uncertainties (less confirmation), higher risk per trade (giving a trade more room), and in general just a higher level of risk. This increased level of risk taking is balanced by increased trading skill.

The problem with trading just trading well is that the game, the trading game, is really close to a zero sum game, even when played perfectly. The focus on limiting risk tends to ignore the reality that every business has to make a profit to survive. The problem with trying to avoid risks is that it tends to push the game to such a competitive level such that the trader must trade at a near perfect level just to break even and nobody can trade perfectly forever. Eventually mistakes are made and losses occur. Great traders are more creative. They move laterally and find creative solutions. Great traders don’t really compete against others. It is more of a dance. Instead of playing the games against others, they make up their own game. (more…)

40 Gems for Traders and Investors

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #
  1. There are only three kinds of investors – those who think they are geniuses, those who think they are idiots, and those who aren’t sure.
  2. One of the clearest signals that you are wrong about an investment is having the hunch that you are right about it.
  3. Investors who focus on price levels earn between five and ten times higher profits than those who pay attention to price changes.
  4. The only way to be more certain it’s true is to search harder for proof that it is false.
  5. Business value changes over time, not all the time. Stocks are like weather, altering almost continually and without warning; businesses are like the climate, changing much more gradually and predictably.
  6. When rewards are near, the brain hates to wait.
  7. The market isn’t always right, but it’s right more often than it is wrong.
  8. Often, when we are asked to judge how likely things are, we instead judge how alike they are.
  9. Most of what seem to be patterns in stock prices are just random variations.
  10. In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you’ll never learn that you should have fewer ideas. (more…)

Booking Losses Before They Occur

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

There is a meaningful difference between trading to win and trading to not lose. The average person feels more psychological pain over a loss than they feel pleasure over a gain–particularly once they have already “booked” that gain mentally.

When we enter a trade, we expect to be paid out. Mentally, we book a potential profit. When a loss materializes, it is the unexpected event–and we respond more strongly to the unexpected than to the familiar.

What is the solution to this dilemma? The answer, surprisingly, is to book losses before they occur.

It’s human nature to not want to think about such unpleasant things as losses. But by knowing our maximum possible loss in advance and by mentally rehearsing what we’ll do on those occasions when the loss occurs, we normalize the losing process. That divests it of its emotional grip.

We can never eliminate loss from life or trading; nor can we repeal the basic uncertainties of markets. What we *can* do is develop an edge in the marketplace and, over the course of many trades, let that edge accumulate in our favor.

Wisdom From Jason Zweig

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

  1. There are only three kinds of investors – those who think they are geniuses, those who think they are idiots, and those who aren’t sure.

  2. One of the clearest signals that you are wrong about an investment is having the hunch that you are right about it.
  3. Investors who focus on price levels earn between five and ten times higher profits than those who pay attention to price changes.
  4. The only way to be more certain it’s true is to search harder for proof that it is false.
  5. Business value changes over time, not all the time. Stocks are like weather, altering almost continually and without warning; businesses are like the climate, changing much more gradually and predictably.
  6. When rewards are near, the brain hates to wait.
  7. The market isn’t always right, but it’s right more often than it is wrong.
  8. Often, when we are asked to judge how likely things are, we instead judge how alike they are.
  9. Most of what seem to be patterns in stock prices are just random variations.
  10. In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you’ll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
  11. The more often people watch an investment heave up and down, the more likely they are to trade in and out over the short term – and the less likely they are to earn a high return over the long term.
  12. Investing is not you versus “Them”. It’s you versus you.
  13. The single greatest challenge you face as an investor is handling the truth about yourself.
  14. Hindsight bias keeps you from feeling like an idiot as you look back – but it can make you act like an idiot as you look forward.
  15. Ignorance of our own ignorance haunts our financial judgments. (more…)

One Liners

  
Education, Life
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

1. Once, all villagers decided to pray for rain, on the day of prayer all the People gathered but only one boy came with an umbrella…THAT’S FAITH
2. When you throw a baby in the air, she laughs because she knows you will catch her…THAT’S TRUST
3. Every night we go to bed, without any assurance of being alive the next Morning but still we set the alarms in our watch to wake up…THAT’S HOPE
4. We plan big things for tomorrow in spite of zero knowledge of the future or having any certainty of uncertainties…THAT’S CONFIDENCE
 
5. We see the world suffering. We know there is every possibility of same or similar things happening to us. But still we get married??..THAT’S OVER CONFIDENCE!!

How do *your* coping efforts work for you?

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Take a look at how well you trade after a position has gone against you. Do you trade better after a drawdown or worse?

How about after you have a few winning trades, days, or weeks in a row? Do you trade better or worse? Breaking down your performance as a function of recent performance will tell you a great deal about how effective you are in coping with risk and reward.

The other excellent indicator of whether your coping is working for you is your emotional experience during trading. If you find that anxiety, overconfidence, frustration, and stress are pushing you into poor decisions, you know that you’re not coping well with the uncertainties of markets.

Finally, it is helpful to identify the sequences of coping behaviors that you utilize when you’re making good decisions and the sequences when you’re trading poorly. Knowing how your individual coping responses come together to form coping strategies can help you cultivate your coping strengths.

Tracking how you deal with challenges when you are at your most effective enables you to create a mental model of that coping that you can call upon during periods of high stress. We cannot avoid the stresses of trading, but those do not have to generate distress and biased decisions.

How do *your* coping efforts work for you?

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

effortTake a look at how well you trade after a position has gone against you. Do you trade better after a drawdown or worse?

How about after you have a few winning trades, days, or weeks in a row? Do you trade better or worse? Breaking down your performance as a function of recent performance will tell you a great deal about how effective you are in coping with risk and reward.

The other excellent indicator of whether your coping is working for you is your emotional experience during trading. If you find that anxiety, overconfidence, frustration, and stress are pushing you into poor decisions, you know that you’re not coping well with the uncertainties of markets.

Finally, it is helpful to identify the sequences of coping behaviors that you utilize when you’re making good decisions and the sequences when you’re trading poorly. Knowing how your individual coping responses come together to form coping strategies can help you cultivate your coping strengths.

Tracking how you deal with challenges when you are at your most effective enables you to create a mental model of that coping that you can call upon during periods of high stress. We cannot avoid the stresses of trading, but those do not have to generate distress and biased decisions.

Trading To Win

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

There is a meaningful difference between trading to win and trading to not lose. The average person feels more psychological pain over a loss than they feel pleasure over a gain–particularly once they have already “booked” that gain mentally. If I’m expecting a bonus from my employer, I’ll be happy when I receive the paycheck–but I’ll be much more upset if I find out the bonus has been rescinded.

—

We can never eliminate loss from life or trading; nor can we repeal the basic uncertainties of markets. What we *can* do is develop an edge in the marketplace and, over the course of many trades, let that edge accumulate in our favor.

And, if you’re trading well, maybe that losing trade will offer you a fresh perspective about how the market is trading: an insight that can make you money the next time around. Then it’s not a loss. It’s information that you’ve paid for. 

Go to top