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"Truth and Trading"

1. Truth: Truth is an absolute value. Some things are true in all places and times. Resisting evil, for example, is always right.

2. Justice: Justice consists of treating others as one would wish to be treated. “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you” summarizes this concept of justice.

3. Courage: Courage means standing up for justice.

4. Moderation: Nothing should be carried to excess.

5. Wisdom: Wisdom enables a person to know what justice is, to recognize when courage is required, and to do what is right.

So how do these values play out in our trading? In this column, let’s explore truth as it applies to your trading.

One of the clear, clean things about trading is that truth is immediately and finally manifested. The price goes up or down or nowhere. Your trade or position is profitable or not. You can’t spin it any other way. You’re right when you make money. You’re wrong when you lose money. That’s just the way it is.s

There are also other truths involved. You just got lucky. You have a robust and proven method for trading that you can rely upon over time. Your methods are flimsy at best, unpredictable at worst. You have no method or you have a million methods which amounts to the same thing. Your impulses frequently and easily override your methods, or you rigidly apply your rules even when you clearly should not.

You keep clear records so you can assess what works best, or you don’t and at the end of the day (or the week or the month), you have no idea. Your record of action is either clear or murky. To correct it, it needs to be clear.

You need to tell yourself the truth as you go along. No excuses. No complaints. No trumped up stories. If you can truthfully analyze your trading mistakes as well as your trading strengths, you can make adjustments, and develop a personal style that will lead to trading success.

Telling the truth about each day’s (week’s, month’s) trading doesn’t mean you have to be brutally cruel to yourself or gloomy about your trading. What it does mean is that you don’t have to do that again, and you can optimistically look forward to the next day’s trading. You will know the truth, and the truth will make you free.

You want to keep your trading in true alignment with any known or possible clues as to the on the ground truths in relevant areas. There are fundamental truths, technical truths, methodological truths, inter-relational truths, and personal truths. The closer you can get in any or all of these areas, the better your prospects. You will seek to know the truth, and those truths will power your trading.

5 Fundamental Truth about Trading

5 Fundamental Truth about Trading

  1. Anything can happen.
  2. Does not need to know what’s going to happen next to make money.
  3. Random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge
  4. Edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
  5. Every moment in the market is unique.

If you truly believe in this as well, I’d encourage you to write this down and look at it every day before you look at your charts. Make it a point to remember, embrace and apply it.

5 Naked Truth about Trading

  1. Anything can happen.
  2. Does not need to know what’s going to happen next to make money.
  3. Random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge
  4. Edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
  5. Every moment in the market is unique.

If you truly believe in this as well, I’d encourage you to write this down and look at it every day before you look at your charts. Make it a point to remember, embrace and apply it.

Want to Become a Winning Trader?

Denial is an insidious and serious human condition that can be extremely dangerous to traders. I think out of all the human conditions, denial is one of the most harmful.

Denial keeps us stuck in doing a negative event over and over again regardless of the outcome. Have you ever heard the saying that madness is doing exactly the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result? Denial is usually why people do this!

Are you a losing trader who is trading the same way over and over again expecting different results? If so, you could be in denial. Look at the list below and see which of these apply to you:

  1. Poor or no record keeping
  2. Consistently losing month after month
  3. Not profitable
  4. Feeling helpless
  5. Frustrated and stuck
  6. Lying about your trading results to others
  7. Creating diversions to distract you from reality
  8. Needing to appear successful to feel successful
  9. Spending out of control
  10. Drinking or wild behavior
  11. Anxious when alone, can’t sit still

If you can identify with two on the above list then you may have a denial issue. If you identify with three or more you have a denial issue. There are different degrees of denial and the idea is that to be a successful trader you must objectively look at yourself and your trading. If you are in denial, or flirting with denial, you are not being objective and are stacking the odds against you that you will be a successful trader.

Denial is insidious, meaning that it begins without you really being aware that has begun. Be on guard for denial. To catch denial before it get out of control, look for the occasional twisting of the truth about your trading results or being lazy about keeping good trading records all indicate that you may not want to face the truth about your trading.

Denial is a disease in that it rarely gets better on its own. Denial rarely just goes away without being proactive and taking conscious action to intervene. Always seek the truth in yourself, your trading and in life and you will be less likely to have a denial problem. Seeking the truth usually takes energy and at times is the harder path to follow and accept, but this is the path you must always follow to avoid denial. As a trader you will not be successful living in denial. Do whatever it takes so that you do not live in denial. If you cannot fix it on your own, get help. You must learn to deal with reality and get a better result!

Trading Quotes from Way of Turtle by Curtis Faith

Dont spent all your time admiring the fancy tools in the magazine.
First learn how to use the basic ones well. Its not the size of your tools that counts but how you use them.
Keep it simple. Simple time-tested methods that are well executed will beat fancy complicated method every time.
Trading with poor methods is like learning to juggle while standing in a rowboat during the storm. Sure, it can be done, but it is much easier to juggle when one is standing on a solid ground.
Trading is not a sprint; it is boxing. The market will beat you up, screw with your head, and do anything it can to defeat you. But when the bell sounds at the end of the twelfth round, you must be standing in the ring in order to win.
The market does not care how you feel. It will not prop up your ego or console you when you are down.
Therefore, trading is not for everyone. If you are unwilling to face the truth about the markets and the truth about your own limitations, fears and failures, you will not succeed. (more…)

How Mistakes Can Become Baggage

Those of us who don’t learn from mistakes are destined to repeat them. Most traders are busy focusing on trying to understand what moves the market, but an equally beneficial endeavor is understanding what causes you to move.

This involves knowing the underlying, often subconscious to a degree,  reasons behind your entries and exit decisions. The inner market. Understanding the connection between your internal state and your behavior is a very effective way to get a handle on repeated mistakes.

In general, P&L is an expression of how well you control your actions, not how well you analyze charts, the market, economy etc. Or more accurately, how well you control your actions when facing the discomfort of uncertainty. 

Mistakes become emotional baggage when we choose not to learn from them. Not wanting those moments where we can see the truth about our own issues ensures they return again.

Why do you think most traders fail?

  1. Poor selection criteria; usually based on personal opinion, theory or tips and bad advice
  2. They don’t stick to and commit to an approach; style drift

  3. Don’t cut losses (#1 mistake made by virtually all investors)

  4. Don’t know the truth about their trading – they fail to conduct in-depth post analysis

  5. Treat trading as a hobby and not a business

  6. Want too much too fast; learning a skill takes time

There’s a lot of important meat in those few lines of text.  We all recognize that it’s not easy to cut losses, but I firmly believe that this results in more grief for traders than anything else.  What causes a trader to suffer a big hit?  I believe that it’s the unwilligness to accept that a trade is not working, and that it’s not likely to get any better if held longer.  Under those conditions, losses mount.  The only way to prevent that big loss is to cut it off at its knees – and the time to do that occurs when it’s a much smaller loss.The difficulty with that is sacrificing the possibility that the trade would turn profitable.  My advice:  Get over it.  Many trades will be unprofitable.  That’s a fact of life for a trader.

I understand that on a rare occasion a gap opening may do irreparable damage, and not provide an opportunity to take the small loss.  However, that’s also a preventable occurrence.  If the damage is too great, then the position was too large.  It really is as simple as that. 

How many of us look at trades after the position is closed?  How many dissect the entire trade in an attempt to find out what was done correctly and what mistakes were made?  Very few. 

A mistake is not a trade that loses money.  A mistake is making a decision that was clearly incorrect at the time, but the trader was unable to see that.  Another mistake is avoiding a trading plan and not doing postmortems on  your trades.  It all takes so much time.  However, if you take trading seriously, and do not consider it to be a hobby, there’s work to be done.

Mistakes are part of the game.  Making the same mistake repeatedly is not.  At least it’s not part of any successful trader’s game.