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10 points To Become Great Trader

  1. Cutting losses short is an edge. Only having small losing trades will save you from the big losses.
  2. Letting your winning trade run as far as it will go is a huge advantage over most traders. Having some huge winning trades will help your overall profitability.
  3. Eliminating the risk of ruin through limiting the total amount of capital you will lose on any one trade will keep your account intact and is an edge over those traders that eventually blow up their trading account.
  4. Proper position sizing will allow you to keep your correct decision making process in place by limiting the emotional impact of any one trade. This is an edge over many others that panic during a big trade and make an emotional decision.
  5. Having the discipline to consistently follow a predetermined written trading plan is an edge over many others that make decisions based on opinions and feelings.
  6. Having the confidence and faith in your trading method to follow it through losing periods is a huge edge. Most drift to new methods right when their last one finally starts working. (more…)

Trend Following Goes for the Middle Meat

Consider an illustration that can make you rich:
trend following chart

Trend following does not pick bottoms or tops. You always get into a trend late, and get out late. You cannot predict a trend. That chart might not seem like a great strategy at first glance, but it is the foundation of one of the most profitable insights in the history of market speculation: capture the middle meat and you can make a fortune.

To Trade or Not to Trade: The Most Important Question

In trading activity alone does not make money, the right activity at the right time is what makes money. Many times the right thing, is to do nothing.

In your actual trading you have to do four things very well to make money.

You have to know when to get in.

Only enter trades that have the highest probability of success and the best risk/reward ratio. Buy the best monster stocks during up trends. Short the fallen leaders when the game changes and they are under the 50 day. Buy the monster stocks at the gift of the 200 day moving average. Short down trending junk stocks. Go where the trends are.

You have to know when to get out. (more…)

Go For the Big Move, Even If You Know Most Moves Are Small

  • Every time you assume a market position in the direction of the major trend, you should premise that the market could have major profit potential and you should play your strategy accordingly. By doing so, you will be encouraged to hold the position and not look for short-term trades.
  • Your perception tells you to hold every with-the-trend position, looking for the big move. Your sense of reality tells you that most trades are not destined for the big move. But, since you don’t know in advance which trade will be wildly successful and since you know that some of them will be, the strategy of choice is to assume each with-the-trend trade can be the ‘big one’; and let your stops take you out of those trades which fizzle.
  • The annals of financial markets are replete with real time examples of markets that started most unimpressively, but then developed into full scale mega-moves. Meanwhile, most of the original participants who may have climbed on board at the very inception of the move, got out at the first profit opportunity and then watched as the market continued to move very substantially, but certainly without them.

The Universal Principles of Successful Trading – 5 Points

A book review for Brent Penfold’s book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading: Essential Knowledge for All Traders in All Markets”

This book is excellent for traders that are ready to accept its lessons. You need a foundation in trading to understand the importance of what the book is advising, and take the principles seriously with an open mind. Once you are through the rainbow and butterfly phase of trading, and realize that you will not be a millionaire in a year, this book will help you get focused and become serious about trading.

Here are the six universal principles of successful traders:

1). Preparation

Author Brent Penfold is in the minority, believing risk management is the #1 priority in trading. Brent believes that once you get your trading system and position size in place, you must use the amount you will risk on each trade to determine your risk of ruin. The book shows exactly how to figure this out using Excel. He believes that if your risk of ruin is not zero, then you will eventually blow out your account. Risking 1% to 2% of your capital in any one trade usually gives you a zero percent risk of ruin, but it also depends on your systems win/loss ratio.  Make sure to test any system with a minimum of 30 trades and then determine your risk of ruin. I would advise a larger sample size in multiple market environments. A trend following system that looks brilliant in a trending market may result in a 50% draw down in a choppy or range bound market.

2). Enlightenment

Your most important goal is to lower your risk ruin to zero. In trading, the trader with the best ability to cut losses short wins. Simple trading strategies work the best based on traditional support and resistance levels, while trading with the trend on either reversals or break outs. The 10% of winning traders in the market win by treading where others fear; buying on break outs when they first occur, and going short when a new low is made. Buying into key reversals when a security finds support or resistance, and reverses at the end of a monster trend, is also a tactic of winning traders.

3). Developing a trading style

You must choose your own personal style of trading: swing trading, trend trading, etc. You must also trade based on your chosen time frame: intraday, short term, medium term, or long term. (more…)

How To Overcome A Market Bias

DON’T ASSUME THERE IS A RATIONAL REASON BEHIND THE MARKET DIRECTION
Market direction is simply the way the market is moving at any given time during the day, and can change at any moment. Market direction is based on the number of trades that take place at certain prices, no more no less. That is why when you think you have the direction called, the markets change and move in a new direction. 
When a trader remains focused on what is happening, they remain focused on their own trades without wasting energy trying to understand why. The market will move where the market will move, one thing is for sure, the market does not need to have a rational reason why it is moving in a direction. Overcoming the need to rationalize a reason behind a market direction will serve to support a stronger trading plan. 
SHOW UP EVERY DAY AND MAKE YOUR TRADING ASSUMPTION BASED ON WHAT YOU ARE SEEING (more…)

This One Thing that Separates losing traders from the Winners

Making money in the financial markets is not only challenging but just surviving an account blow up is also a win for many new traders. There is one thing that ultimately determines your success in the markets. It is not your stock picking skills, your trend following or even trading a robust method. The dividing line between the winners and the losers in trading and investing is risk management. If you trade all in and risk it all over an over you will eventually blow up your account, and the funny thing is that it will likely be on your ‘can’t miss’ trade that is just way to obvious to everyone and is a crowded trade. Traders that believe have 10 losing trades in a row are impossible will discover it is very possible. Each trade should be large enough to return enough to make it worth your while, but small enough to make it inconsequential to your results in the long term. Trading small not only eliminates the financial risk of account ruin that is ever present in a market environment that is not conducive to your methodology but small risks also keep your logical brain in control of your trading and your emotions on the side lines.Nothing is more painful in my opinion than to build up an account during a great string of wins only to give it back with a string of losses in a different market environment. Small bets and staying out when he market waves get wild is a great formula to avoid big draw downs. You can still win big when you are right by letting a winner run but always lose small when you are wrong. The bet size on each trade will make or break ever trader at some point usually sooner than later. (more…)

Trading Mathematics and Trend Following

Some quick points, to be making money, Profit Factor must be greater than 1.

  • Profit Factor (PF)
  • = Gross Gains / Gross Losses
  • = (Average win * number of wins) / (Average loss * number of losses)
  • = R * w / (1-w)
    • where R = Average win / Average loss
    • w = win rate, i.e. % number of winners compared to total number of trades

Re-arranging, we have

  • w = PF / (PF + R)
  • R = PF * (1 – w) / w

Sample numbers showing the minimum R required to break-even (i.e. PF = 1, assuming no transaction costs) for varying win rates.

  • w = 90% >> R = 0.11
  • w = 80% >> R = 0.25
  • w = 70% >> R = 0.43
  • w = 60% >> R = 0.67
  • w = 50% >> R = 1
  • w = 40% >> R = 1.5
  • w = 30% >> R = 2.33
  • w = 20% >> R = 4
  • w = 10% >> R = 9

The style of trading strongly influences the win rate and R (average winner / average loser). For example, (more…)

Perseverance is one of the Best Traits to Have When Trend Following!

It is never easy…and those that promise you that are not telling you the truth.

Perseverance is one of the Best Traits to Have When Trend Following!
Trend following is a marathon. There will always be those that say it is over!

It takes losses in the stock market to make future great traders and learning from mistakes is one of the best teachers.

Have a trading plan….and more importantly…Make sure you follow your own rules!

Just Give Up These 10 Things If You Are A Trader

  • Give up your need to be right: The market is always right, do not strive to be right in your predictions and opinions. Strive to go with the flow of the market.
  • Give up control: No matter how long you watch a live stock stream, you have no power over the movements. Save your emotional energy by not trying to cheer on your positions and get wrapped up in every price tick.
  • Give up blaming other factors for your losses: There is no mysterious ‘They’ causing you to lose money. Your choices cause you to lose money, or your system just had a losing trade. It is a free country and free market.
  • Give up beating yourself up for losing trades: If you followed your trading plan, then there should be zero regrets involved in a losing trade. If you did not follow your plan and lost, then money was the tuition and you paid  to learn the lesson. You must move on to the next trade. 
  • Give up your own opinions: If you took a trade based on your own opinion, you have to give up your opinion and get out if the trade moves to a place that proves you were wrong.
  • Give up your inability to change your mind: The more you believe a trade just can’t miss, the more dangerous it is. It will cause you to trade too big and stay in too long. You have to always be ready to be wrong.
  • Give up your past trades: Each trade is a new trade. Do not hold grudges against stocks and think they ‘owe’ you for past losses. Do not fall in love with a stock and hold it as it falls lower and lower.
  • Give up letting your trading define your self worth: Do not let your trading define you. Diversify your life with friends, family, hobbies, and other interests. It is not healthy to become overly obsessed with the markets.
  • Give up on losing trades quickly when your stop is hit: Your best trades will be the ones that are profitable from the start. If they immediately go against you, be prepared to be stopped out. You can destroy your trading account when you start the “It will come back, I just have to wait” chant in the midst of a death spiral.
  • Give up on price targets let your winners run as far as they will go: In the right market conditions trends can go on to unbelievable levels. The big wins during these trends can make your entire career. If you set a predefined profit target, you will not miss the opportunity when it comes. Let a trailing stop take you out.