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Not Having a Trading Plan

TRADINGPLAN“If you fail to plan, then you plan to fail”. I don’t know who first said that, but it’s a very sound piece of advise indeed. Planning is something that is all too often overlooked by traders, and yet a well drafted trading plan is one of the most important tools for success and profit.
In talking to struggling traders, I am constantly amazed at not only how many don’t have a trading plan, but how many don’t even know what such a plan is. In fact a trading plan is quite simple, it’s a document that details every aspect of your trading strategy. It is literally a blue-print for your trading methodology.
What should be in this document? Here are the most important areas it should cover: (more…)

Minervini, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard-Book Review

Mark Minervini, U.S. investing champion in 1997, averaged a 220% return per year from 1994 to 2000 for a compounded total return of 33,500%. Yes, we all know that these astonishing figures coincided with a major bull market, but how many traders came anywhere close to his record during this period?

In Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Superperformance in Stocks in Any Market (McGraw-Hill, 2013) Minervini shares his SEPA (Specific Entry Point Analysis) trading strategy. It’s essentially a trend following/breakout strategy that screens for such variables as earnings surprises and relative strength and that looks for catalysts driving institutional interest. It relies on both fundamentals and technicals. Its focus is on youthful small- to mid-cap stocks.

There are strong echoes of Bill O’Neil, Ben and Mitch Zacks, Richard Donchian, even Jesse Livermore in Minervini’s work. That he borrows from such luminaries is not surprising. Having dropped out of school at the age of 15, he subsequently became “a fanatical student of the stock market. … Over the years,” he writes, “I’ve read an incredible number of investment books, including more than 1,000 titles in my personal library alone.” (p. 3) (more…)

4 Trading Mistakes

1.  Do the Math
 

Sit down and go over your expected Risk to Reward Ratio for each trade.  If you have already been trading for a period of time sit down and analyse how much you are making each trade and your winning %.  These two numbers will help you formulate a solid profit goal.  No trading strategy works 100% of the time so you need to work out how much you lose per losing trade vs. how much you make per winning trade and then figure in your percentages.  From there you should have a realistic idea of how much you can expect to make in through your trading. 

2.  Don’t Expect Instant Returns
 

Trading is a business and like any other business it requires not only capital investment but time investment as well.  It takes time to find your rhythm and develop your trading skills.  Try not to be to hard on yourself during the learning phase and remember to focus on the positive aspects of your trading.  The vast majority of traders lose money and this number is even higher with traders who are just starting out.  Factor this in when you are setting your goals.

3.  Skill vs. Profits
 

Try to come up with goals that are not directly tied to your P&L statements.  For example, set a goal of following your rules for every trade for an entire trading day.  Once that is completed shoot for an entire week, then a month, and pretty soon you will be doing following your rules without even realising it.   Train yourself to develop your trading skills and reward yourself when you reach those goals. 

4.  It Takes Money
 

It takes money to make money.  Small accounts are fantastic for testing out whether or not trading is for you but when you get serious and want to go full time make sure you have enough capital to support your business.  Solid traders should expect to make 8% in the market over the course of a month.  That equates to 96% over a given trading year.  Make sure this figure allows you to have the lifestyle that you are expecting. 

Do You Trade The Market or Your Emotions?

As traders try to improve performance, the one piece of knowledge that is often overlooked, is self-knowledge. Most traders would benefit by simply focusing on doing more of what works and less of what doesn’t, which sounds obvious, but the reality is that most do just the opposite. Learning to identify which behaviors work and which don’t is not as fun or interesting as learning a new trading strategy or set-up.; and awareness of one’s internal state is just as critical, but that is typically not dealt with.  As a result, most traders focus outward and ignore their inner process. And the way this often plays out for a trader is they trade their emotions and not the market.

Ten questions to ask yourself before every trade

  1. Does this trade fit my chosen trading style? Whether it is:  swing trading, momentum, break out, trend following, reversion to the mean, or day trading?

  2. How big of a position do I want to trade? How much capital am I going to risk? Am I limiting my risk to 1% or 2% of my trading capital?
  3. What is my risk of ruin based on my capital at risk?
  4. Why am I entering the trade here? What is the trigger to trade?
  5. How will I exit with a profit? A price target or trailing stop?
  6. At what price will I know that I was wrong? Where is my stop loss based on the position size?
  7. Will I be able to admit I was wrong and exit the trade if my stop is hit, or will my ego make me hold and hope?
  8. Is the risk small enough that I can emotionally handle the loss without blaming the market?
  9. Can I really risk this money or do I need it for upcoming bills? Trade with risk capital not living expenses.
  10. Am I committed to staying disciplined and following my trading plan on the trade?

I believe the answers to these questions will determine your success in any trade more than anything else.

Something You Need to Know

A trader with a superior trading strategy but lacking in self-management skills will generally underperform a trader who has a less than superior strategy  (but still has en edge) and is superior in self-management. I see this all the time.

Consider re-directing some of your energy and time toward self-mgt. Self mgt. includes a lot of things….but the big one is understanding how your emotions – including subconscious emotions – influence your decisions and actions.

Your trading plan or your strategy must include self management.

Few more Seconds

Many of us have made trades after a quick look at our charts and later we look back and say “I wish I would have taken a little more time before I did that”.

In the world around us, everyone is always rushing to do everything especially in making a decision. I understand that sometimes you are forced to make quick decisions, however as a trader, you will regret quick decisions more times that you will congratulate yourself.

If we have committed to our risk management, money management, trading strategy along with our overall plan for our session, then I recommend that if you truly want your sessions to be more successful, take a few more seconds in every step.

Take a few more seconds to not just look at the charts, but to truly see and understand what you see. Take a few more seconds to determine where you entry point and exit point is and not just wing it.

Take a few more seconds to prepare and instead of just looking and deciding, clearly see and understand what you see and you will enhance your trading performance.

Do You Trade The Market or Your Emotions?

As traders try to improve performance, the one piece of knowledge that is often overlooked, is self-knowledge. Most traders would benefit by simply focusing on doing more of what works and less of what doesn’t, which sounds obvious, but the reality is that most do just the opposite. Learning to identify which behaviors work and which don’t is not as fun or interesting as learning a new trading strategy or set-up.; and awareness of one’s internal state is just as critical, but that is typically not dealt with.  As a result, most traders focus outward and ignore their inner process. And the way this often plays out for a trader is they trade their emotions and not the market.

Markets: They Trend, They Flow, They Surprise

Markets go up, down, and sideways. They trend. They flow. They surprise. Have markets changed? Not only have markets changed, they will continue to change. Check your history books. If you have a valid market philosophy, learning to accept that change and flow with it is your greatest asset. No matter how ridiculous market moves appear at the beginning, and no matter how extended or irrational they seem at the end, following trends is the rational choice in a chaotic, changing world.

That thinking leaves trend followers as generalists when it comes to their trading strategy and that’s not easy to accept for many. The dominant trend within universities is ever-narrower specialization. A higher premium is placed on deep knowledge within a single field (read: fundamental expertise in one market), versus broad wisdom across multiple fronts.3

For example, one trend following practitioner started trading trends in 1974—making hundreds of millions in profits and perhaps billions for clients. The major strategic elements of his trend following trading systems have never changed. He was blunt: “The markets are just the markets. I know that is unusual sounding.” (more…)

10 Trading Books -Every Trader Must Read

“If there was easy money lying aroundno one would be forcing it it into your pockets.” – Jesse Livermore

There is so much garbage out there concerning trading online and the temptation for easy money that many new traders are lured into childish beliefs about getting rich quick, following a guru that can predict the future, or confusing a salesman for a trader. Contrary to popular belief, trading is not about picks, predictions, or personal gurus. Trading is really about entry signals with an edge, following price action, and learning to trade a system that fits who you are as a trader. Real long term profitable trading is about, risk management, robust trading systems, and mental and emotional discipline. I would not trust anyone that did not have those three things at the core of their trading. Here is the right reading path for a new trader to follow to avoid all the hype, foolishness, con-artists, and childishness that arises from ignorance of a solid understanding of the subject of trading in the real world in real time.

Trade Like a Casino: Find Your Edge, Manage Risk, and Win Like the House (Wiley Trading)  “If we are properly managing the risk and adhering to a positive expectancy model, the act of trading a position should be boring.” – Richard Weissman

Trading Without Gambling: Develop a Game Plan for Ultimate Trading Success “If all your decisions were made during nonmarket hours with timing and execution being your main concern during market hours, you will dramatically increase your chances of success.” – Marcel Link

Trend Following (Updated Edition): Learn to Make Millions in Up or Down Markets “Trend followers are the group of technical traders who use reactive technical analysis. Instead of trying to predict a market direction, their strategy is to react to the market’s movements whenever they occur. This enables them to focus on the market’s actual moves and not get emotionally involved with trying to predict direction or duration.” – Michael Covel

Market Wizards, Updated: Interviews With Top Traders “The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense.” & “Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.” – Market Wizards (more…)