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Eleven Rules for Traders

Trading in the markets is a process, and there is always room for self improvement. So as we start the new year, here are my 11 rules that help me navigate the markets. By no means is this list exhaustive or exclusive.

Rule #1
Be data centric in your approach.
 Take the time and make the effort to understand what works and what doesn’t. Trading decisions should be objective and based upon the data.

Rule #2
Be disciplined.
 The data should guide you in your decisions. This is the only way to navigate a potentially hostile and fearful environment.

Rule #3
Be flexible.
 At first glance this would seem to contradict Rule #2; however, I recognize that markets change and that trading strategies cannot account for every conceivable factor. Giving yourself some wiggle room or discretion is ok, but I would not stray too far from the data or your strategies.

Rule #4
Always question the prevailing dogma.
 The markets love dogma. “Prices are above the 50 day moving average”, “prices are breaking out”, and “don’t fight the Fed” are some of the most often heard sayings. But what do they really mean for prices? Make your own observations and define your own rules. See Rule #1.

Rule #5
Understand your market edge.
 My edge is my ability to use my computer to define the price action. I level the playing field by trading markets and not companies. (more…)

11 Trading Rules

Rule #1
Be data centric in your approach.
Take the time and make the effort to understand what works and what doesn’t. Trading decisions should be objective and based upon the data.

Rule #2
Be disciplined.
The data should guide you in your decisions. This is the only way to navigate a potentially hostile and fearful environment.

Rule #3
Be flexible.
At first glance this would seem to contradict Rule #2; however, I recognize that markets change and that trading strategies cannot account for every conceivable factor. Giving yourself some wiggle room or discretion is ok, but I would not stray too far from the data or your strategies.

Rule #4
Always question the prevailing dogma.
The markets love dogma. “Prices are above the 50 day moving average”, “prices are breaking out”, and “don’t fight the Fed” are some of the most often heard sayings. But what do they really mean for prices? Make your own observations and define your own rules. See Rule #1.

Rule #5
Understand your market edge.
My edge is my ability to use my computer to define the price action. I level the playing field by trading markets and not companies.

Rule #6
Money management.
Money management. Money management. It is so important that it is worth saying three times. There are so few factors you can control in the markets, but this is one of them. Learn to exploit it.

Rule #7
Time frame.
Know the time frame you are operating on. Don’t let a trade turn into an investment and don’t trade yourself out of an investment.

Rule #8
Confidence and conviction.
Believe in your strategies and bet wisely but with conviction. There is nothing more frustrating than having a good strategy work as you expect, yet at the end of the day, you have very little winnings to show for your efforts.

Rule #9
Persistence.
It takes persistence to operate in the markets. Success doesn’t come easy, and if it does, then I would be careful. Even the best strategies come with losses, and they always seem to come when you get the nerve to make the big bet. Stay with your plan. If you have done your home work, the winning trades will follow.

Rule #10
Passion.
In the end, trading has to be about your bottom line, but you have to love what you do and no amount of money is worth it if you aren’t passionate about the process. No matter how much success you enjoy, in the markets you can never stop learning.

Rule #11
Take care of yourself.
No amount of money is worth it if your health is failing or you have managed to alienate yourself from family and friends in the process.

The Universal Principles of Successful Trading

A book review for Brent Penfold’s book ‘ The Universal Principles of Successful Trading: Essential Knowledge for All Traders in All Markets”

This book is excellent for traders that are ready for it. You need a foundation in trading to understand its importance and take the principles seriously. Once you are through the rainbow and butterfly phase of trading and realize that you will not be a millionaire in a year, this book will help you get focused and get serious about your trading and what really works.
Here are the six universal principles of successful traders:

1). Preparation

Author Brent Penfold is in the minority believing risk management is the #1 priority in trading. Brent believes that once you get your trading system and position size in place you must use the amount you will risk on each trade to determine your risk of ruin. The book shows exactly how to figure this out using Excel. His point is that if your risk of ruin is not zero then you will eventually blow out your account. Risking 1% to 2% of your capital in any one trade usually gives you a zero percent risk of ruin but it also depends on your systems win/loss ratio. But the point is to test any system with 30 trades first then determine your risk of ruin.

2). Enlightenment

Your most important goal is to lower your risk ruin to zero. In trading, the trader with the best ability to cut losses short wins. Simple trading strategies work the best based on traditional support and resistance while trading with the trend on either retracements of break outs. The 10% of winners in the market win by treading where others fear, buying on break outs when they first occur and going short when a new low is made, or buying into the abyss when a security finds support or resistance and reverses at the end of a monster trend. (more…)

The Two Trading Problems

The old saying indicates that fear and greed are the emotions that dominate markets.

Eliminating emotion from trading is both impossible and undesirable. The “feel” for markets possessed by the best traders is a form of emotion; Antonio Damasio’s writings on this subject are must reading.

When we become very anxious or frustrated, however, our assessments of risk and reward are impaired: that is the enduring message of behavioral finance research. Regional cerebral blood flows no longer activate those executive parts of the brain responsible for planning, judgment, and decision-making. Rather, we regulate our motor activity as part of “flight or fight”. In the flight mode, we flee from risk and inhibit trading decisions. This leads to immediate safety, but also missed opportunity. In the fight mode, we confront risk and activate trading decisions. This leads to the relief of taking decisive action, but also poses increased possibilities of loss.

With market volatility at record levels, it’s not unusual to experience outsized losses when trades are wrong. These losses place a figurative magnifying glass on our flight or fight responses, activating stress modes at exactly the times we want to be most deliberate and planful. (more…)

FOCUS

Have you ever stopped to consider how many different trading strategies there are? How about time frames for each strategy? And what about the best instrument to trade that strategy within the time frame selected? What about the indicators? Which ones are we planning to apply to the strategy? If we were to add it all up there are literally hundreds, if not thousands of strategies, just in one time frame! And what about the other traders trading one of these strategies that may be designed specifically to trade the opposite of what you trade? There is absolutely no way humanly possible to master all, or even a large number of, the strategies available to us. Therefore, we must focus on a particular strategy and become a strategic specialist. In doing so, we defeat the ego’s need to know everything, which we know is impossible in the first place.  With focus, we can think clearly about our specialized strategy knowing when and where to enter and exit the market since we know exactly what the market is supposed to look like to do either one.  This focus helps eliminate the confusion and frustration we experience when the market does not make sense (which is most all of the time!).

Trading Advice

1) Cut Risk – It’s that “above all else, do no harm” principle. If you don’t have a feel for the market, trade small while you regain your feel. Preserve as much of your capital as possible to lay the foundation for your recovery; 

2) Focus on Your Strengths – It’s not unusual for frustrated traders to try to make all kinds of changes in their trading in a frantic effort to gain some traction. These efforts can compound difficulties by getting traders further and further from their strengths. During rebuilding periods, you want to focus on the markets and strategies that you know most about, that represent your strengths. 

3) Reach Out – It’s especially helpful to reach out to traders who trade markets and strategies similar to yours. Are they also struggling? If so, this suggests that market changes, indeed, may be at the root of the problem. If the traders you contact are succeeding, try to find out what they’re doing differently from you. It may well be that a simple tweaking of execution, holding times, and risk management could turn your performance around.  (more…)

Top Trend Traders Bank Millions, Ride The Trend

Famed Stanford University psychologist Leon Festinger once said, “A man with a conviction is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.” 
Although trend following has been one of the most successful trading strategies for decades, some critics downplay the massive profits accumulated by trend followers, arguing there are just a few chance winners — “lucky monkeys,” they claim. 
BEAT THE AVERAGES
Not true. Large numbers of trend followers have found a way to outpace market averages. They have done so with hard work and the ability to stick with a trading plan — usually for a very long time. Some argue, “There’s no romance in trend following.” The romance is found in returns. Money is the ultimate aphrodisiac. 
PROFITS COUNT
Think of it this way: Performance data examples from the great trend followers could be the foundation of every college finance class. When you show up on the first day, instead of your teacher handing you a syllabus and telling you to buy certain books, you are handed one piece of paper that simply shows the performance histories of professional trend following traders for the last 50 years.
HUGE WINNERS
The entire semester could be built around that study alone. But first, to judge systematic trend following performance, you need a baseline. The S&P 500 is the barometer for making money in the markets. Comparing to it is wholly appropriate (even though some might carp). Who are some of the top-performing trend following traders over the last 30 years? How much have they made? Consider: 
o Bruce Kovner is worth more than $4.1 billion
o John W. Henry is worth $840 million
o Bill Dunn made $80 million in 2008
o Michael Marcus turned an initial $30,000 into $80 million
o David Harding is now worth more than $690 million
o Ed Seykota turned $5,000 into $15 million over 12 years
o Kenneth Tropin made $120 million in 2008
o Larry Hite has made millions upon millions over 30 years
o Louis Bacon is worth $1.7 billion
o Paul Tudor Jones is worth $3 billion
o Transtrend, a trend-trading fund, has produced hundreds of millions, if not billions, in profit (more…)

My 11 Trading Rules

Trading in the markets is a process, and there is always room for self improvement. Here are my 11 rules that help me navigate the markets. By no means is this list exhaustive or exclusive.

Rule #1
Be data centric in your approach. Take the time and make the effort to understand what works and what doesn’t. Trading decisions should be objective and based upon the data.

Rule #2
Be disciplined. The data should guide you in your decisions. This is the only way to navigate a potentially hostile and fearful environment.

Rule #3
Be flexible. At first glance this would seem to contradict Rule #2; however, I recognize that markets change and that trading strategies cannot account for every conceivable factor. Giving yourself some wiggle
room or discretion is ok, but I would not stray too far from the data or your strategies.

Rule #4
Always question the prevailing dogma. The markets love dogma. “Prices are above the 50 day moving average”, “prices are breaking out”, and “don’t fight the Fed” are some of the most often heard sayings.
But what do they really mean for prices? Make your own observations and define your own rules. See Rule #1. (more…)