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The Coin Flip Test And Trade Probability -Anirudh Sethi

Since we are human merchants and we like what we do, executing the above-portrayed model would require a ton of tolerance and it would likewise be extremely exhausting. we better utilize a computerized forex-system to execute this coin-choice exchanging model. all we would need to do is truly utilize a guarded hazard the board of most extreme 1% per exchange, on the grounds that a half winning-likelihood would not imply that we would not need to confront 10 or 15 failure exchanges a column! recollect that these probabilities become valid in the long run!

since we like to inhale and encounter the business sectors, and we obviously need to exchange physically utilizing specialized examination or key news, we should now have a more critical investigation of the universe of cash the board, stop misfortune, take benefit, and obviously additionally the satisfactory exchange volume. since section 1 of this article arrangement, we realize how a dealer can ensure his record by straightforward RISK MANAGEMENT counts. this is totally vital and its significance can’t be rehashed regularly enough!

Presently, in the comic, sadly, flipism didn’t turn out to be well for Donald. A coin flip for every choice brought about a progression of incidents for poor Donald. Amusingly, however, so as to bargain out some proper recompense, Donald managed to pursue down the con artist Professor Batty by finding the misrepresentation behind the correct entryway dependent on a coin flip, so maybe the way of thinking holds some legitimacy. In spite of the fact that I don’t really advocate carrying on with a real existence dependent on coin flips, incidentally, coin flips and the hidden factual rules that administer coin flips are especially powerful when applied to certain issues normally looked in the information.

without utilizing any investigation technique each time you open exchange, you have a half possibility that the exchange goes toward you! the reality of the situation may prove that in 10 exchanges it goes 8 or multiple times toward you, or against you… be that as it may, in 1.000 exchanges you will have indirect 500 victors and 500 washouts. you can contrast that with tossing a coin. the more regularly you toss a coin the more you can be certain, that the scientific probability will appear and affirm the half possibility for each side of the coin or every bearing of an exchange. knowing this, all you need to do ist to pick an SL/TP-RATIO of 1:2. for instance 20 pips SL and 40 pips TP. in the event that you currently win each second exchange (half), you will naturally make benefits!

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Livermores Seven Trading Lessons

Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.

As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. If a trader doesn’t know his exit before he takes the entry, he might as well go to the racetrack or casino where at least the odds can be quantified.

Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before going all in.

Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would pile on rapidly to maximize the returns.

There are several ways to buy more in a winning position — pyramiding up, buying in thirds at predetermined prices, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry — but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade –  never when it goes against you.

Lesson Number Three: Watch leading stocks for the best action.

Livermore knew that trending issues were where the big money would be made, and to fight this reality was a loser’s game.

Lesson Number Four: Let profits ride until price action dictates otherwise.

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”

One method that satisfies the desire for profit and subdues the fear of a losing trade is to take one half of your profit off at a predetermined level, put a stop at breakeven on the rest, and let it play out without micromanaging the position. (more…)

7 Trading Rules of Jesse Livermore’s

Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.

As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. If a trader doesn’t know his exit before he takes the entry, he might as well go to the racetrack or casino where at least the odds can be quantified.

Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before going all in.

Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would pile on rapidly to maximize the returns.

There are several ways to buy more in a winning position — pyramiding up, buying in thirds at predetermined prices, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry — but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade –  never when it goes against you.

Lesson Number Three: Watch leading stocks for the best action.

Livermore knew that trending issues were where the big money would be made, and to fight this reality was a loser’s game. (more…)

Ideas that spread

Not all great investing/trading ideas are profitable. Ideas that spread are. If no one else sees what you see and acts, you can’t make money. Hoping that eventually the rest of the market will understand and embrace your thesis is a loser’s strategy or a privilege for someone with very deep pockets. Markets often know more than you as they constantly try to discount all the available public and private information. You might be convinced that your analysis is right and the market is wrong, but it could remain wrong longer than you could remain solvent. The question again is do you have deep enough pockets to ride the storm out and aren’t there more plausible alternatives for your capital at the time. Smart people like to scale in and out of positions, knowing that no one can consistently pick tops and bottoms.

Take for example Jim Rogers. He is a typical contrarian investor, who likes to buy low and sell high. But he is not buying anything that is low priced and neglected. He buys cheap things only when he sees a fundamental change on the horizon – a catalyst that will help other market participants to re-evaluate their thesis and act on their new observations.

Livermores Seven Trading Lessons

Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.

As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. If a trader doesn’t know his exit before he takes the entry, he might as well go to the racetrack or casino where at least the odds can be quantified.

Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before going all in.

Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would pile on rapidly to maximize the returns.

There are several ways to buy more in a winning position — pyramiding up, buying in thirds at predetermined prices, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry — but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade –  never when it goes against you.

Lesson Number Three: Watch leading stocks for the best action.

Livermore knew that trending issues were where the big money would be made, and to fight this reality was a loser’s game.

Lesson Number Four: Let profits ride until price action dictates otherwise.

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”

One method that satisfies the desire for profit and subdues the fear of a losing trade is to take one half of your profit off at a predetermined level, put a stop at breakeven on the rest, and let it play out without micromanaging the position.

Lesson Number Five: Buy all-time new highs.

The psychological merits of buying all-time or 52-week highs are immense and shouldn’t be discounted as a part of your overall strategy. (more…)

Livermores Seven Trading Lessons

Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.

As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. If a trader doesn’t know his exit before he takes the entry, he might as well go to the racetrack or casino where at least the odds can be quantified.

Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before going all in.

Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would pile on rapidly to maximize the returns.

There are several ways to buy more in a winning position — pyramiding up, buying in thirds at predetermined prices, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry — but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade –  never when it goes against you. (more…)

Aim Small, Miss Small

As many of you already know, one of the biggest factors in successful trading is how well you manage the trade – that is the stop-losses you place, the amount of capital that you put to work, where you take profits, and how you protect the profits that you already have. You could, no doubt, write many books on each of these subjects, but for now, I’m going to focus on a small, but critical aspect of risk-management and my inspiration comes from the movie “The Patriot”, which happens to be one of my favorite movies of all time.

In the clip below, Benjamin Martin (the father) asks his two young boys, “What Did I tell ya ‘fellas about shooting?” and they replied, “Aim Small, Miss Small”. Every time I hear those words I tell myself how true they ring across so many spectrums of life. As an avid hunter, if you just aim the gun at the direction of the game you are targeting, you are bound to miss. However, if you pick out a tiny, specific area of the animal, whether its the upper-right side of the chest, or some other smaller area, you have a much better chance of hitting your target. In fact, the smaller the target area, the lesser amount of margin for error you have in missing.

So how does this apply to trading, you must be asking? The stop-loss that we set in relation to our entry price is a reflection of our “Trading-Aim”

When I trade, I look for setups that are as close as possible to a desirable stop-loss. By desirable, that means I’m not just picking a spot that is 1 or 2% from my entry price for the sake of it being so, instead, if I am long, I am going to look to place a stop-loss somewhere underneath a critical support level, and if I am short, then I am going to place a stop just above an area of resistance. So the place that I choose for my stop-loss is that of a strategic area and a point to where I know, that if it hits the stop, I know that my thesis is no longer valid and therefore, I must exit the trade. (more…)

Learning through Failure

Very often we learn more from our failures than from our successes. The path to success travels inevitably through certain failures.

A look at successful traders and entrepreneurs shows that they have been able to survive failure as many times as they have had to. They use failure as feedback. They learn from it and make changes and go on. Many super traders have experienced crushing loss in their early trading years. All of them picked themselves up, made adjustments, and with the sure belief that they could make it back through better trading, did just that.

Successful traders are able to ride through periods of drawdown easily because they believe the drawdown to be only temporary. They distinguish the difference between simple losses and loss that comes from mistakes. Their confidence in their methods and their ability and their vision of what the markets can provide reassures them about their future success. Any period of loss is viewed as transitory.

Fear of failure keeps many traders from the success they so dearly want. They are afraid to fail and therefore either afraid to trade or to admit the failure and learn from it. I’m not saying you should like loss. Winning traders don’t want to punish themselves, but successful traders don’t dread loss either because they know that whatever happens, they can make it back. And they can learn.

Strangely enough, failure is often a necessary stepping stone to success. Those who are too fearful of failure may never get to the success they long for. Fear can lead us not only away from the thing we fear but also away from the thing we seek. Ironically, fear can also lead us directly into the thing we fear. My thesis is that underneath fear of failure is a sense of scarcity.

Confronted with a drawdown, a trader who fears failure will often stop trading or change methods or systems only to junk the new methods or systems at the next drawdown.

The winning trader will not inflexibly keep doing what doesn’t work. His open mindedness allows him to recognize the difference between market conditions and methodologies that do or don’t have a probability of success. A trader with a sense of abundance and a verified method for trading won’t crumble under temporary loss because he’ll know he’s simply passing through a difficult time that will end. He distinguishes between loss and inept or error prone trading.

The flexible trader with the willingness to admit mistakes will learn from the failure, honor that failure as feedback; make corrections, and proceed with the improvements. The winning trader, just as the winning athlete, is in a constant and never ending process of development and growth.

Look at the history of your trading and write down several major failures. As you study each failure, look for similarities and differences between them. Look for the lessons. Identify and define the problems. Look for valid solutions.

As you trade each day, do the same thing with individual mistakes. Write them down as they occur along with the lesson learned. Look for repetitions. Commit to your own development and growth as you learn through experience. Remember, if you can’t make a mistake, you can’t make anything, including money. 

Confronted with a drawdown, a trader who fears failure will often stop trading or change methods or systems only to junk the new methods or systems at the next drawdown.

The winning trader will not inflexibly keep doing what doesn’t work. His open mindedness allows him to recognize the difference between market conditions and methodologies that do or don’t have a probability of success. A trader with a sense of abundance and a verified method for trading won’t crumble under temporary loss because he’ll know he’s simply passing through a difficult time that will end. He distinguishes between loss and inept or error prone trading.

The flexible trader with the willingness to admit mistakes will learn from the failure, honor that failure as feedback; make corrections, and proceed with the improvements. The winning trader, just as the winning athlete, is in a constant and never ending process of development and growth.

Look at the history of your trading and write down several major failures. As you study each failure, look for similarities and differences between them. Look for the lessons. Identify and define the problems. Look for valid solutions.

As you trade each day, do the same thing with individual mistakes. Write them down as they occur along with the lesson learned. Look for repetitions. Commit to your own development and growth as you learn through experience. Remember, if you can’t make a mistake, you can’t make anything, including money.

The Wisdom of Jesse Livermore

Here are seven lessons from Jesse Livermore who is considered by many as one of the greatest traders who ever lived.

Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.

As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. Risk management should dictate the size of the trade and how much you can lose. Deciding where to exit when a position is going against you is not a winning strategy.

Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before trading a larger than average position.

Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed by it going in his favor. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would maximize his trading size for out sized wins.

There are many ways to add to a winning position — pyramiding up at key pivot points, building a position as the trade goes in your favor, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry — but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade –  never when it goes against you. Never add to a losing position.

Lesson Number Three: Watch leading stocks for the best action.

Livermore knew that trending issues were where the big money would be made, and to fight this reality was a loser’s game. Shorting monster stocks is a very dangerous undertaking when they are under accumulation by large funds. (more…)

Be a cynic

 Don’t argue with the tape but look at the other side of every coin. I’ve long noticed that as a group Russian and British traders are better than average. Why? Because by nature they question widely accepted beliefs. New opinions translate to revaluations. Leave your dogma at the door and be open to the unexpected and seemingly illogical. Winning traders have a reason to be in the trade. Even if based on nothing more than a vague, ethereal feel, a good discretionary trader has a profile in his mind and the moment his thesis is no longer provable or valid he is out of the position.

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