Archives of “skepticism” tag

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Russia to publish coronavirus vaccine trials data in the coming days – local media

  
  Analysis
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TASS reports on the matter, citing the Russian health minister

There is plenty of skepticism surrounding Russia’s coronavirus “vaccine”, as there isn’t any solid evidence presented as of yet besides backing from the government and Putin.
Reports that the country’s leading respiratory doctor has quit the health ministry’s ethics council because of the vaccine endorsement also raises more questions.
But considering how much reputation and political risk is at stake, you can bet that these clinical trials data will be supportive of what Putin has touted so far.
As for the truth of the situation, it is debatable but I’m not buying into the story thus far. But markets may run on anything these days, so that is something we have to accept.

Fed’s Beige Book: Economy expanded at slight-to-modest pace

  
  Analysis
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Highlights of the Fed’s anecdotal economic summary:

That’s a downgrade from modest previously.
Highlights:
  • Businesses see expansion continuing, many have cut outlook
  • Business activity varied across the country
  • Districts in south and west were more upbeat that midwest and great plains
  • Spending was solid on balance, housing market conditions changed little
  • Some districts suggested persistent trade tensions and slower global growth weighed on activity; early impact of GM strike was limited
  • Most expect economic expansion to continue; however many lowered their outlooks for growth in coming 6-12 months
  • A number of manufacturers reduced headcount because orders were soft, some cut hours rather than reduce staff
  • Wages rose moderately in most districts, with upwards pressure noted for lower-skill workers
  • Employers continued to use bonuses and benefits to attract and retain talent
  • Most districts characterized the recent pace of prices increases as modest
  • Retailers and manufacturers noted rising input costs
  • Shipping rates remained lower than they were earlier in the year because of excess capacity

US President Trump says Congress have reached a deal on debt limit suspension

  
  Analysis
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As if there was ever going to be any doubt the US would once again add to its gargantuan deficit

Trump says a deal has been reached between Congress and the White house
  • debt limit ratcheted higher
  • for the coming two years
For those with a stick up their you know what – this is not a real photo, K?
US once again add to its gargantuan deficit

My Trading Lessons for Traders

  
  Education
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Read….When ever you are Free.

  • Prepare, be confident & be decisive

  • Follow my trading rules without exception

  • Plan every trade with profit exit, stop exit and risk/reward ranking

  • Trade only when you have time AND you have an edge

  • Formulate and write down a trading/investing plan

  • Exit a position at my stops and not “hope” it will recover tomorrow

  • Trade the market I actually see, not the one I think I will see

  • Focus more on what’s actually happening rather than what I wish would happen

  • Learn to prevent my skepticism and opinion over the economy from keeping me from making good trades

  • Have a plan every day to trade the market and to not let my opinions of the market interfere with my trading

  • Concentrate on rule based trade management and not the outcome of the specific trade

  • Follow price action as opposed to listening to the fundamental “experts”

  • Listen to the market signal rather than market noise

  • Don’t be afraid of making mistakes

  • To pay more attention to technical signals to determine purchase/sell points rather than emotion & personal reasoning

  • Have more confidence in my trade ideas and believe in myself more often

  • Do not have a bias but instead let the charts be the guide

  • Have the discipline and fortitude to stick to my trade plans

  • To improve my organization of stock lists and automation of stock alerts

  • Do not over-leverage

  • Select only the most favorable setups

  • Try not to over analyze every potential trade

  • Lose less when I am wrong

  • Spend less time reading words and more time reading charts

  • Stick with winners and sell the losers

  • Allocate 2-3 hours each day & 5 hours every weekend to finding attractive setups

  • Increase position size and be in the market more (more…)

    • Trading Wisdom

      
      Education
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    Markets are highly random and are very, very close to being efficient.

    If you are a new trader, trading is probably harder than you think it can be. If you’ve been trading a while, you know this. Financial markets are one of the most competitive environments in the modern world. New information is quickly processed and incorporated into prices. This means that you cannot outsmart the market consistently. You cannot invest based on what you think makes sense or should happen because you are up against investors with superior access to information, knowledge, experience, capital and other resources. Most of the time, markets move in a more or less random fashion; you can’t make money if market movements are random. (“Efficient”, in this context, is an academic term that basically means that all available information is reflected in prices.)

    It is impossible to make money trading without an edge.

    There are many ways to create an edge in the markets, but one this is true—it is very, very hard to do so. Most things that people say work in the market do not actually work. Treat claims of success and performance with healthy skepticism. I can tell you, based on my experience of nearly twenty years as a trader, most people who say they are making substantial profits are not. This is a very hard business.

    Every edge we have is driven by an imbalance of buying and selling pressure.

    The world divides into two large groups of traders and investors: fundamental traders who base decisions off of financial analysis, understanding of the industry and a company’s competitive position, growth rates, assessment of management, etc. Technical traders base decisions off of patterns in prices, volume or related data. From a technical perspective, every edge we have is generated by a disagreement between buyers and sellers. When they are in balance (equilibrium), market movements are random.

    Intuition

      
      Education
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    A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.

    Though intuition is not infallible, it can be a useful speculative tool, if handled with care and skepticism.
    If you are hit by strong hunch – put it to the test. Trust it only if you can explained it. That is only if you can identify within your mind a stored body of information out of which that hunch must reasonably be supposed to have arisen.
    Be wary of any intuition that seems to promise some outcome you want badly.

    Never confuse a hunch with a hope.

    10 ways to Master the Trade

      
      Education
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    How do you know you’re making progress on the road to successful trading? There’s one obvious answer: Check your financial  results. There is little doubt you’re doing well if you’re booking consistent profits. Thump

     But raw capital production may not be the best way to judge your growth as a trader. The road to success has many detours  where profitability isn’t the best measure of results. For example, we all go through phases in which introspection and skill  development are more urgent than short-term profits. So let’s look at 10 ways to know you’re making solid progress on the road  to market mastery: 

     1. Money management becomes your lifeline, and all your trading strategies start to revolve around its core. Risk control  becomes a key aspect of every position you take. You accept that controlling losses has a far-greater impact on your bottom line  than chasing gains. 

     2. You develop your own trading plans and strategies rather than relying on books, gurus or other people’s opinions. You notice  how you’re finding more opportunities than you have time to trade while looking through your charts. You look forward to the  trading day with a growing sense of confidence and empowerment. 

     3. You feel more like a student than a master. You learn new things every day and can’t wait to apply them to real-life trading  scenarios. You listen closely to everything you hear, trying to pick up hints and concepts that will improve your performance. You expand your studies into everything market-related, including economics, fundamentals and balance sheets. 

     4. You stop visiting stock boards and chatrooms, because they don’t add anything to your trading goals. You realize that  everyone in those places has ulterior motives. You develop a healthy skepticism about companies, market-makers and even  other traders. You realize that no one is really interested in your success as a trader, except for you.  (more…)

    Nine Reasons Why Greece, PIIGS Approaching Irreversible Slide to Default

      
    Analysis, Economy, Education
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  • Like other emerging market nations, it has entered a vicious cycle in which market skepticism creates higher borrowing costs and actually pushes the country closer to the abyss, its demise becoming a self fulfilling prophecy. Once that momentum begins, it is very hard to stop the decline in confidence.
  • Fitch downgrade means no more room to fall before junk bond status: Fitch’s downgrade of 2 notches from BBB+ to BBB- means the next level down is junk bond status, leaving Greece with no collateral to use for borrowing from the ECB. This after the ECB yielded and agreed to accept the BBB+ rating after 2010.
  • Yield on Greek debt is now above many countries with lower, junk-rated bonds: What does that tell you about where Greece’s ratings, and thus yields, are going?
  • A quickening death spiral has started.
  • Extreme austerity measures cut GDP and tax receipts, spur capital flight from banks.
  • EU’s March 25th rescue accord failed, eroding EU credibility: The EU needed a big, timely, decisive rescue package with an announcement shock effect similar to Washington’s guarantee of the too big to fail banks back in September of 2008. It needed to show that no matter what, the EU would not let Greece default, even if it meant effective EU stewardship and economic occupation, and Greece had to agree to it. Instead, neither Greece nor its rescuers have approached the issue with this level of life-or-death seriousness. Both sides have chosen to bicker, bargain, and attempt to hold out for better deals in a deadly game of chicken. The result, the EU’s credibility is damaged, and the EU was the last hope for the markets, as Greece has long ago lost credibility.
  • Greece selling short term bills into a steeply inverted Greek yield curve: The Greek Yield Curve is inverted from 3 months to 5 years. Yet Greece will attempt to sell 26 week and 52 week paper, after having failed to sell long term bonds. Looks like the rates will be too high once again, even if there is demand.
  • Greece needs to find €10 bln by May. The EU and/or IMF will probably give them that one way or another. However this is just delaying the inevitable. Greece needs another estimated €30 bln to make it through the year.

  • EU failure on Greece endangering other PIIGS block members. Spain alone needs to sell €30 bln of bonds in July. It is in better shape than Greece. However, as noted in Contagion Spreads: PIIGS Credit Default Spreads Rising On Greece Default Fears, Spain and its fellow PIIGS colleagues are watching in horror as their own borrowing costs are rising to new highs on fear generated by Greece’s woes. Should Spain need help, there will be little or no cash left in the EU accord. Markets know this, which in turn sparks more fear and higher rates, pushing Spain and the others closer to the edge themselves. Note that Spain and Italy have debt loads many times larger than Greece’s, and that fact alone may doom them unless the EU can inspire confidence and get borrowing rates down.

    • About the author: Cliff Wachtel


    Quick thought on being an extreme contrarian

      
      Education
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    It makes it hard to make successful, opinion based trades.

    You enter a trade on the basis that everyone is wrong, accepting scope for the crowd to get it even more wrong before waking up to reality. When the crowd does eventually realise the error of it’s ways, the price turns in your favour. However, it is extremely difficult to hold on to the trade and enjoy ‘being right’, because the crowd is always wrong, and if it is now moving in your favour, then you are also wrong, an equal fool.

    This unhealthy skepticism leads to early culling of winners and ensures that one’s portfolio spend most of it’s time holding on to losing positions.

    Lessons From John Templeton

      
      Education
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    1. “I never ask if the market is going to go up or down, because I don’t know, and besides it doesn’t matter. I search nation after nation for stocks, asking: Where is the one that is lowest priced in relation to what I believe its worth?” Like every other great investor in this series of blog posts John did do not make bets based on macroeconomic predictions. What some talking head may say about markets as a whole going up or down was simply not relevant in his investing.  John focused on companies and not macro markets. He was a staunch value investor who once said: “The best book ever written [was Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham].

     2. “If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.  I’ve found my results for investment clients were far better here [in the Bahamas] than when I had my office in 30 Rockefeller Plaza.  When you’re in Manhattan, it’s much more difficult to go opposite the crowd.”  The mathematics of investing dictate that investing with the crowd means you will earn zero alpha, because the crowd is the market.  You must sometimes be willing to take a position that is different from the crowd and be right about that position, to earn alpha. John put it this way: “If you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you will have the same results as everyone else.” 

     3. “The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.  Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.  People are always asking me: where is the outlook good, but that’s the wrong question…. The right question is: Where is the outlook the most miserable? For those properly prepared in advance, a bear market in stocks is not a calamity but an opportunity.”   To be able to sell when people are most pessimistic requires courage.  Being courageous is easier if you are making bets with “house money.” Making bets with the rent money is always unwise.  Templeton believed problems create opportunity. For example, it was on the day that Germany invaded Poland that he saw one of his best buying opportunities since prices were so low and values so high.  Simply telling his broker that day to buy every stock selling under $1 yielded a 4X return for John.  (more…)

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