Archives of “rule of thumb” tag

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Bond’s send out a distress signal

  
  Analysis
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All is not well-

The constant fall in Bond yields is sending out a signal that all is not well in the world. The tail end of last week may have seen some excellent earnings from facebook, apple, amazon and alphabet and that started a fresh equity rally early Friday. However, the fall of Bond yields is saying, ‘look out! There may be trouble ahead. For the uninitiated bond traders tend to take a more long tern macro view. So, when equities rise, but bond yields are falling that is a signal something is wrong.

If you can recall at the start of the year one of the big questions was which market is right? Falling and yields or rising equities? The answer has been, ‘the falling bond yield market’. So, the general rule of thumb is go with the bond yield market. Now, of course this doesn’t mean that a funny divergence can last for weeks and months. However, at the very least it is a warning sign. That warning sign is showing again.

All is not well- 

Yields are dropping

The 10Y Gilt yield (UK bond) hit a record low last week. The 10Y Bund (German bond) closed at its lowest level since mid-May on Thursday last week, while the 10 y UST (US bond) was down towards its lowest ever close last week too.

Bonds

SP500

Why are they dropping?

The proverbial tea leaves are being read and a second wave of COVID-19 is being seen ahead. This will mean more monetary and fiscal policy help to get through the pandemic.So, yes the equity market has been rallying on the central bank support. However, the bond market is saying that the next stage of the global economy is fraught with dangers and a ‘V’ shaped recovery is more hope than reality.

The Power of Focus

  
  Education
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Let’s take a break and look at some trading psychology tips. Today our ideas are coming from one of my favorite books that’s not really trading-oriented. We’re going to be looking at a few highlights from a book called “The Power Of Focus”, by Jack Canfield, Mark Hansen, and Les Hewitt. While there’s no way to do the book justice in our limited space here, hopefully you’ll take away some of the more important pieces of the book. And best of all, you’ll be able to apply them immediately.

Your habits will determine your future. This is not news to any of us, but what I found interesting was something of an aside in the book. The book contends that the results of bad habits don’t show up until well after the habit has been learned. That’s unfortunate too, as we all know that it’s incredibly difficult to unlearn something. The implication is that that you’ll be engaging in a destructive behavior, but you may not know it until it’s far too late to actually do anything about it. In fact, up to 90% of your everyday behavior is based on habits. Have you made it a habit to spend an hour a day preparing and doing trade research? Have you committed to waking up an hour earlier to plan your trading or work day? Or do you hit the snooze button a few times, and miss out on reviewing the news and charts of your positions? Habits are the key to success.

Your goals must have a number. And this doesn’t just mean the total returns on your trades, as an overall goal is still too ambiguous to actually use in making daily plans. You need to know how many trades per day, week, or month it will take to achieve your goal. Of course, you’ll also need to know what type of return you need to average on each trade to reach that goal. As the book states so accurately, “a goal without a number is just a slogan.”

Take decisive action. They say 80% of success is showing up, and that’s probably a pretty good rule of thumb. So how does one “show up” to be a trader? By taking trading action! And if you’re not taking the action you know you should be taking, you absolutely must understand and admit that you’re procrastinating. Stings, doesn’t it? But recognizing the truth is the first step to attacking any problem. The book explains six reasons for procrastination; think about which ones apply to you.
1) You’re bored.
2) You’re overwhelmed.
3) Your confidence has slipped.
4) You have low self-esteem.
5) You don’t enjoy what you do.
6) You’re easily distracted. (more…)

Winning Streaks vs. Losing Streaks

  
  Education
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All traders who last long enough will go through periods of winning and losing streaks.Mathematicians refer to the process as the theory or run known to gamblers as a “streak.”Games of chance  such as roulette ,craps and blackjack are predicated that the house has an edge over the player.Trading  has  a distinct advantage because the trader has the ability to be the house.A mathematical edge is all that is all that is needed by the trader to increase his probability of success.Sound money management advantage begins to work.What happiness in real time trading is that after a series of losing trades the trader will begin to question the system or his ability to execute the system properly.

Tow things are necessary to get though the bad losing times !Belief in your system is very important but it ranks second to the sound money management system.Mediocre trading systems can have positive results with the use of a good money management system.The rule of thumb is to reduce your risk on any trade to 2% of working capital.This should prevent a meltdown but remember trading is about probability not certainty !

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