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3 most critical aspects of trading

  
  Education
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  1. Discipline
  2. Timing
  3. Stock selection

Discipline alway is on top. Be accountable to yourself. Treat your money as if it was entrusted to you by whomever you most love, respect, fear… whatever works.

Have a reason to make every trade. Be able to verbalize that reason. As importantly, have a reason to exit a trade. You hear “cut your loses and let your winners run”….That is so true. I so often have seen traders get our of good positions because they have achieved their “target price” “target of profit”….I say this is bad thinking. If the trade REMAINS a trade you would put ON at the time you “achieve target”, why in the world would you take it off? To me, it is as important to have a reason to get out of a trade as to get in. Anyone can say to themselves they have a reason to exit a losing trade…”cut your losses”..Why then is it so hard for so many to have a real reason to get our of a winner?

It should be, and is, easy. It just takes DISCIPLINE. If you give back X% of your profit; if the market changes, if the group starts to get weak, whatever. You have to have your disciplines and stick to them. Make your own rules, and stay consistant to them.

I hope that all this typing can result in just one positive thought to just one person here. I have gone to so many “brainstorming” meetings in my career. I have listened to a million opinions, statements and arguments. I go though because I KNOW that if I pick up one single constructive thought I will have spent my time wisely. and believe me, they are few and far between. But I can remember single sentences said years ago in long boring meetings. Those senteces have added up to serve me well.

Timing should be easier for new traders to learn. Just be patient and buy or short at the price you pre-determine. Don’t chase.

Stock selection…this is a bit tougher. I could write a hundred pages on this issue. But not being so inclined, have standards. Volume, percent of average volume, relative strength, news, whatever you are comfortable with. Know what your quote provider can tell you other than quotes alone. Look for trades, but don’t be impulsive. Sometimes not making a trade is a great trade.

11 Biases That Affect Traders

  
  Education
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Overconfidence
As the name suggested, it is the irrational faith in one’s skills, methodology or beliefs. For example, you see a certain chart pattern and make a maximum leveraged trade, even though you understand that any chart pattern cannot predict market with certainty. Trading excessively after a winning streak also shows overconfidence.
Cognitive Dissonance
It means finding excuses for something which makes you ‘uncomfortable’. For example, jumping from one indicator to another when you face losing trades; or continuing to trade in stock even your trading methodology does not gives you a positive expectancy. 
Availability Bias
It means being biased to information which is readily and easily available. For example, people begin to trade using RSI without understanding the internal relative strength; that is, RSI is most talked about on forums so start using them without rationally researching it. Being affected from attractive advertisement or intelligent sounding articles (including this one!) without due diligence also signifies availability bias.
Self-Attribution Bias
It means giving yourself unwarranted praise for outcomes which may just be an outcome of chance. For example, people make money in a bull market through buy and hold and start begin to believe on their trading acumen rather than the market regime which favors their trading style. (more…)

Quantitative Strategies for Achieving Alpha by Richard Tortoriello -Book Review

  
  Education
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In this book Richard Tortoriello sets out find empirical drivers for stock market returns. This is a new book published last month. The author tests 1200 strategies on stock above 500 million valuation to determine the major fundamental and market based drivers for future stock market returns.After such analysis he presents strategies that consistently outperform the market.

The author tests 7 basic categories of stocks factors:
  1. Profitability
  2. Valuation
  3. Cash flow
  4. Growth
  5. Capital allocation
  6. Price momentum
  7. Red Flags ( risk factors)
 
Detailed quantitative tests  for each of the factors are presented in the book. As the author works for S&P, he has access to the best database on stocks and he presents his findings for multiple factors within each of the above seven categories. The testing shows that the top single factor strategy for achieving excess return is price momentum calculated using 28/16 relative strength. The best strategy using two combined factor for excess return is price momentum plus nearness 52 week high. 
 
This book unlike other quant books is easy to understand and well presented. The biggest advantage of this book is it will give you building blocks to build your trading strategy around things that empirically work in the market. Knowing what works and why it works can help you build better trading models.

Market changes mind like a girl changes clothes

  
  Education
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changingcloth

The current market is unique. It has never been so volatile; therefore the danger and the opportunities have never been so plentiful. No one has ever traded in such market, so past knowledge and experience may only be a hinder to adopt faster in the new environment. No system is profitable all the time and traders with 20+ years of profitable track record are in the process of realizing that. In time of extreme changes survives the one, who is more flexible, not the stronger one.

Conventional wisdom will bring you only losses. You have to learn to think out of the box. Conventional wisdom says that in bear markets you should be only short or neutral. In case you absolutely have to have long positions in your portfolio, you should choose among the stocks with highest relative strength – the ones that somehow managed to weather the storm. Wrong.

Market is so volatile that it takes stops out on a regular basis, shaking out both long and short swing traders. Percentage stop losses don’t work in this environment. If you are going to survive and thrive, you need to decrease your trading horizon and the size of your trading. I remember that about a year ago, I found out that many, who were swing traders at the beginning of their careers at some point switched to day trading. I wondered why and started asking questions.

Markets are made from people. In theory everyone could be profitable if there is a continuous flow of fresh money into the market. Recently this has not been the case. Someone has to lose. In order to be profitable you need to follow a very simple rule – to buy only what you could sell later at higher price and to sell short only what you could buy later at lower price. Like the owner of a small shop, you should not buy inventory that you personally like, but stuff that could easily be sold this season. Yes, stock traders are in the retail business and their products are called stocks. I realize how unscrupulous such way of thinking may sound and that it contradicts the initial purpose the market were created, but this is the reality.
Initially markets were created:

  • To offer an alternative exit strategy (therefore motivation) for entrepreneurs;
  • To provide new means of cheaper financing for business’ expansion;
  • To allow ordinary citizens, who don’t have the idea, the will or the necessary capital to start their own business, with the opportunity to participate effectively in the economic growth of the country/the world.

All those things don’t matter anymore. Markets have long turned into a speculation arena, where everyone tries to outsmart the other.

Ciana, New Frontiers in Technical Analysis

  
  Education
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For those of us without a Bloomberg terminal New Frontiers in Technical Analysis: Effective Tools and Strategies for Trading and Investing by Paul Ciana (Bloomberg/Wiley, 2011) is an idea book, not a plug and play manual. But even though some of the software tools described in Ciana’s book are not available on run-of-the-mill trading platforms (and where they are, they are available by subscription only) clever programmers may get inspired. Moreover, even without access to proprietary software the imaginative reader can add some new arrows to his quiver.
The six chapters in this book are written by six different authors: “Evidence of the Most Popular Technical Indicators” (Paul Ciana), “Everything Is Relative Strength Is Everything” (Julius de Kempenaer), “Applying Seasonality and Erlanger Studies” (Philip B. Erlanger), “Kase StatWare and Studies” (Cynthia A. Kase), “Rules-Based Trading and Market Analysis Using Simplified Market Profile” (Andrew Kezeli), and “Advanced Trading Methods” (Rick Knox).
Ciana provides some fascinating data about the preferences of those who use the Bloomberg Professional Service. For instance, Europe opts for log charts 47% of the time and Asia only 9% of the time. Asia prefers candlestick charts, the Americas bar charts. Worldwide the most popular technical indicators (excluding moving averages) are RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands (BOLL), stochastics (STO), directional movement index (DMI), Ichimoku (GOC), and volume at time (VAT). RSI is the clear winner, with a 44.4% worldwide preference; MACD comes in second at 22%. Some indicators have geographical ties. GOC has a 10.8% popularity rating in Asia as opposed to 2.5% in the Americas and 2.8% in Europe. VAT has a 5.3% rating in the Americas and only 1.8% in Europe and 1.6% in Asia. (more…)

10 Essential Trading Words

  
  Education
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1. Simplicity – have a simple, well defined way to generate trading ideas. Have a simple approach towards the market. You can’t simply take everything into account when you try to make an educated decision. Filter the noise and focus on several key market components. For me, they are relative strength and earnings’ growth.

2. Common sense – create a trading system that is designed on the basis of proven trading anomaly. For example, trend following in different time frames.

3. Flexibility – be open to opportunities in both directions of the market. Be ready to get long and short.

4. Selectivity – chose only trades with the best risk/reward ratio; stocks with the best set ups; it doesn’t make sense to risk a dollar to make a dollar.

5. Don’t overtrade – two or three well planned trades in a week (month) might be more than enough to achieve your income goals. Patiently wait fot the right set up to form and offers good risk/reward ratio.

6. Exit strategy – Always, absolutelly always have an exit strategy before you initiate a trade. Know at which point the market is telling you that you are wrong and do not hesitate to cut your losses short immediatelly. Don’t be afraid or ashamed to take a trading loss. Everyone has them. Just make sure that you keep their size to a minimum.

7. Let’s profits run – one or two good trades might make your month. One or two good months might make your year. Letting profits run is as important as cutting losses short. Bigger winners will allow you the luxury to be right in less than half of the trades and still be profitable.

8. Consistency – Stick to your method of trading ideas’ generation.

9. Specialize – Specialize in one or two distinct setups. It could be a combination of technicals and fundamentals, certain timeframe or special event as a trading catalyst, certain sector or trading vehicle.

10. Have a plan – Which are stocks that you will be paying special attention to – this week, today. Why those stocks? In which direction you expect them to continue their move? What will give you a clue for the beginning of the move? Follow them exclusivelly and enter without a hesitation when they give you a signal. Don’t  just wake up and sit in front of your monitor without having a clue what are you going to trade today.

10 Essential Trading Words

  
  Education
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1. Simplicity – have a simple, well defined way to generate trading ideas. Have a simple approach towards the market. You can’t simply take everything into account when you try to make an educated decision. Filter the noise and focus on several key market components. For me, they are relative strength and earnings’ growth.

2. Common sense – create a trading system that is designed on the basis of proven trading anomaly. For example, trend following in different time frames.

3. Flexibility – be open to opportunities in both directions of the market. Be ready to get long and short.

4. Selectivity – chose only trades with the best risk/reward ratio; stocks with the best set ups; it doesn’t make sense to risk a dollar to make a dollar.

5. Don’t overtrade – two or three well planned trades in a week (month) might be more than enough to achieve your income goals. Patiently wait fot the right set up to form and offers good risk/reward ratio.

6. Exit strategy – Always, absolutelly always have an exit strategy before you initiate a trade. Know at which point the market is telling you that you are wrong and do not hesitate to cut your losses short immediatelly. Don’t be afraid or ashamed to take a trading loss. Everyone has them. Just make sure that you keep their size to a minimum. (more…)

Standard & Poor’s 500 Guide, 2013 Edition

  
  Education
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It’s commonplace for authors to write revised editions of their books. But book reviewers are not supposed to serve up revised editions of their reviews. The former are billed as new and improved; the latter seem nothing more than warmed-up fare. The problem is that sometimes it’s difficult to start from scratch when reviewing a book that, while completely new, is also identical in structure. Such is the case with the 2013 edition of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Guide. So, with apologies, herewith a revised edition of last year’s review.
This is a very big paperback—8 ½” x 11”, more than 1000 pages, and weighing in at about 4.5 lbs. With so much information available online, why would anyone need this book? I can think of several compelling reasons.
First, a personal preference: I enjoy flipping through pages, making serendipitous discoveries. (The one downside this year: thanks to UPS, the bottom of the book got wet, so the pages don’t exactly flip.) I don’t have the same kind of experience online since I normally am looking for something specific, not just seeing what comes my way. (more…)

Implied volatility

  
Analysis, Education
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Implied volatility increases near the end of topping processes. This can be observed from VIX index. VIX shows relative strength despite the market keeps going higher. 

Implied volatility decreases near the end of a sell off. This can be observed from VIX index. VIX shows relative weakness despite the market keeps going higher.

10 Essential Trading Words

  
  Education
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1. Simplicity – have a simple, well defined way to generate trading ideas. Have a simple approach towards the market. You can’t take everything into account when you try to make an educated decision. Filter the noise and focus on several key market components. For me, they are relative strength and earnings’ growth.
2. Common sense – create a trading system that is designed on the basis of proven trading anomaly. For example, trend following in different time frames.
3. Flexibility – be open to opportunities in both directions of the market. Be ready to get long and short.
4. Selectivity – chose only trades with the best risk/reward ratio; stocks with the best set ups; it doesn’t make sense to risk a dollar to make a dollar.
5. Don’t overtrade – two or three well planned trades in a week (month) might be more than enough to achieve your income goals. Patiently wait fot the right set up to form and to offer good risk/reward ratio.
6. Exit strategy – Always, absolutelly always have an exit strategy before you initiate a trade. Know at which point the market is telling you that you are wrong and do not hesitate to cut your losses short immediatelly. Don’t be afraid or ashamed to take a trading loss. Everyone has them. Just make sure that you keep their size to a minimum.
7. Let’s profits run – one or two good trades might make your month. One or two good months might make your year. Letting profits run is as important as cutting losses short. Bigger winners will allow you the luxury to be right in less than half of the trades and still be profitable.
8. Consistency – Stick to your method of trading ideas’ generation.
9. Specialize – Specialize in one or two distinct setups. It could be a combination of technicals and fundamentals, certain timeframe or special event as a trading catalyst, certain sector or trading vehicle.
10. Have a plan – Which are the stocks that you will be paying special attention to – this week, today. Why those stocks? In which direction you expect them to continue their move? What will give you a clue for the beginning of the move? Follow them exclusivelly and enter without a hesitation when they give you a signal. Don’t just wake up and sit in front of your monitor without having a clue what you are going to trade today.

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