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The Coin Flip Test And Trade Probability -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Education
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Since we are human merchants and we like what we do, executing the above-portrayed model would require a ton of tolerance and it would likewise be extremely exhausting. we better utilize a computerized forex-system to execute this coin-choice exchanging model. all we would need to do is truly utilize a guarded hazard the board of most extreme 1% per exchange, on the grounds that a half winning-likelihood would not imply that we would not need to confront 10 or 15 failure exchanges a column! recollect that these probabilities become valid in the long run!

since we like to inhale and encounter the business sectors, and we obviously need to exchange physically utilizing specialized examination or key news, we should now have a more critical investigation of the universe of cash the board, stop misfortune, take benefit, and obviously additionally the satisfactory exchange volume. since section 1 of this article arrangement, we realize how a dealer can ensure his record by straightforward RISK MANAGEMENT counts. this is totally vital and its significance can’t be rehashed regularly enough!

Presently, in the comic, sadly, flipism didn’t turn out to be well for Donald. A coin flip for every choice brought about a progression of incidents for poor Donald. Amusingly, however, so as to bargain out some proper recompense, Donald managed to pursue down the con artist Professor Batty by finding the misrepresentation behind the correct entryway dependent on a coin flip, so maybe the way of thinking holds some legitimacy. In spite of the fact that I don’t really advocate carrying on with a real existence dependent on coin flips, incidentally, coin flips and the hidden factual rules that administer coin flips are especially powerful when applied to certain issues normally looked in the information.

without utilizing any investigation technique each time you open exchange, you have a half possibility that the exchange goes toward you! the reality of the situation may prove that in 10 exchanges it goes 8 or multiple times toward you, or against you… be that as it may, in 1.000 exchanges you will have indirect 500 victors and 500 washouts. you can contrast that with tossing a coin. the more regularly you toss a coin the more you can be certain, that the scientific probability will appear and affirm the half possibility for each side of the coin or every bearing of an exchange. knowing this, all you need to do ist to pick an SL/TP-RATIO of 1:2. for instance 20 pips SL and 40 pips TP. in the event that you currently win each second exchange (half), you will naturally make benefits!

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Keeping Perspective – You’re Not “A Trader”

  
  Education
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  One of the things everyone who trades needs to do is to keep things in perspective. Trading is something we do, but it’s not the only thing we do. There are a great many other parts of our life and what makes us who we are. Trading needs to account for that and be incorporated into your life in a compatible, supportive fashion.

Be cautious about identifying yourself as “a trader”. I say that because when you label yourself in that way you automatically create an association in your mind based on what you have come to think of as a trader. That association will have been built up from all the things you have seen, read, heard about, and experienced in that regard – much of which probably has absolutely nothing to do with you specifically.

That last part is the key. Trading is a very personal thing. No two people are going to trade exactly the same way. When you think of yourself as “a trader”, though, you associate yourself with actions and perceptions and images which come at least in part from other traders. That image in your mind may create internal conflict which hampers your performance.

So thing of yourself as “someone who trades” rather than as “a trader”. It could help to release you to trade the way you are capable.

Confidence: How to Apply the Goldilocks Principle as a Trader Read more

  
  Education
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An absolutely crucial characteristic all successful traders share is confidence. Success is only achieved when a trader has the confidence to execute his ideas without being overcome by emotional fears. I believe that creating a game plan and sticking to it will foster confidence in the long run because the trader defines all aspects of his trade that he can control; the rest is left to the market. Confidence based on winning trades is fleeting, but confidence based on the ability to objectively execute ideas leads to long-term, unbreakable confidence.
Yet I often see two primary psychological problems that traders experience with regard to confidence. There is overconfidence and underconfidence, both of which lead to very serious complications in one’s trading. Overconfidence occurs when the trader has had a string of winners and feels indestructible. A common statement of reflection once destruction occurs is usually something like: “I thought I knew more than the markets” or “I thought I had trading all figured out.” The trader usually begins to get sloppy in their trading and takes poor risk/reward trades, believing it will just work out for them. Hard-earned profits can disappear in a very short time if overconfidence is present — unless the trader has learned the techniques to recognize this and nip it in the bud quickly. (more…)

3 Dos and Don’ts Most Traders Learn the Hard Way from Market Wizard Mark Minervini

  
  Education
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The following article is an excerpt from Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market by Mark Minervini with permission from McGraw Hill Publishing.

How to Handle a Losing Streak

A losing streak usually means it’s time for an assessment. If you find yourself getting stopped out of your positions over and over, there can only be two things wrong:

1. Your stock selection criteria are flawed.

2. The general market environment is hostile.

Broad losses across your portfolio after a winning record could signal an approaching correction in a bull market or the advent of a bear market. Leading stocks often break down before the general market declines. If you’re using sound criteria with regard to fundamentals and timing, your stock picks should work for you, but if the market is entering a correction or a bear market, even good selection criteria can show poor results. It’s not time to buy; it’s time to sell or even possibly go short. Keep yourself in tune with your portfolio, and when you start experiencing abnormal behavior, watch out. Jesse Livermore said, “I’m never afraid of normal behavior but abnormal behavior.” (more…)

What is real?

  
Analysis, Education
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This is a question I find is increasingly important to me in my continuous process of learning this subject. In fact there are two, what is real and what is common?

Its like this. You read everything, look at a million systems, read books, try things. Its a total mess. However you start to pick out singular bits and pieces that you can definitely say are real.

For instance, I eventually came to the conclusion that support and resistance was real. Sound ridiculous I know, you’d say “of course its real!” – yes its true, but it depends on how you are determining what is support and resistance, because there are a million ways.

However after much experimentation and thought, I finally arrived at my way of determining these levels and I know its real. It works. It is one tool that I am totally sure of and I do not have to really spend time on that subject anymore. Its in the bag. I will probably use this method for the rest of my life.

There are others also, but this is how (I think) you begin to construct your trading method and style. Also, you may read about a hundred other peoples systems and then recognise that they have one core common theme. It may be (for instance) pull backs to an EMA. Despite the infinite variations, all of these systems you can group together and call them EMA pullback systems. You can then determine that there is something in it, but what? It then becomes a process of experimentation with the idea until you arrive at the method that works for you in this regard.

So out of the mess, you pick out core ideas to test and examine. Due to my increasing interest in news trading I have been reading as much as I can from other traders about this on the forums, books and ebooks etc. Even though they bitch and argue and debate, you can see one or two core similarities that are probably the key to what ever successful results they have, and its these that you want to zero in on.

8 Ways to be great

  
  Education
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First Principle: Find Your “Why?”

“The reason most people go through life with big dreams but fail to achieve them is because they ask themselves “how” before they know their “why”(9).

Second Principle: Get To Know Yourself

“The perfect trader-if such a person exists-is methodical and careful about making decisions, extremely disciplined, resilient to setbacks, with a high degree of internal confidence.  He holds strong opinions but is also able to admit quickly when he is wrong, not take it personally, and view it as a learning opportunity rather than a failure.  He understands the value of leaving his ego at the door.  He’s willing and able to trust his gut and place big bets when the opportunity presents itself.  In fact, that pretty well describes the ideal blend of characteristics of any successful person, no matter what he is doing professionally or personally” (18-19).

Third Principle:  Learn To Love The Process

“The best traders don’t think about how many millions they need to make each year.  They focus on making the best trading decision they can with each trade they make. And if there isn’t a good trading opportunity right now, they have the discipline to do nothing and just wait. Concentrating on one trade at a time is their process” (38).

Fourth Principle:  Sharpen Your Edge

“Gaining a competitive advantage is like having a two-edged sword, and you need to keep both of them sharp.  On edge is internal-knowing what unique skills you bring to the table.  The other is external and comes from gathering knowledge that makes it more likely you’ll succeed” (45). (more…)

3 Types of Traders & 4 Questions

  
  Education
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An egotistical trader is more likely to argue with the markets, potentially leading to huge losing days or possible account blow-outs. You don’t need to win on every trade, or even every trading day, or every trading week.

A humble trader is able to admit that his trading is creating nothing but losses that day, and stop trading until the markets are better suited to his/her style. A humble trader is less likely to double-up into excessively risky trades, in order to ‘get back even’ on the trade or on the day. A humble trader has nothing to prove, to anyone, and can freely admit mistakes to themself and others, enabling them to quickly and easily react to what the market is telling them, with little regard for it’s contradiction to what he/she may have expected only minutes earlier.

Conversely, and egotistical trader might confidently tell his friends ‘what is going to happen’ and is unwilling or unable to subsequently change his mind when the market tells him otherwise. Once he’s made a public proclamation, he can’t go back on his ‘call’ or he might appear to be wrong.

The successful trader can’t tie up their self image or self worth on a single trade, or a single trading day. Keeping your attitude humble enables you to simply treat each and every trade as individually irrelevant, and allows you to focus on doing what’s right, and not being right.”

I’ll close with the questions I ask myself about each trade at the end of the day:

1. Was it a valid setup?

2. Did I wait for confirmation of the setup and follow my rules for entry?

3. Did I implement my risk management plan?

4. Did I manage the trade according to my rules, taking profits at or beyond the initial target, never earlier unless a valid stop-and-reverse signal appeared?“A successful trader is humble, not egotistical. The trader that knows it all, will typically quickly be proven wrong by the market. The humble attitude leads a trader to be willing to admit mistakes quickly, close out losing trades, and move on without loss of confidence.

10 Pitfalls of Trading & Answers

  
  Education
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What are the 10 major mistakes that these traders make that cost them dearly?

  1. Having no trading plan

When you don’t have a plan, you don’t have a template to follow. It becomes very costly when your emotions are high and you have to make decisions on the fly.

  1. Using strategies that do not match your personality

You hear of a trading strategy that has worked very well and you are anxious to follow it. One important factor to consider is: does it match who you are and your lifestyle?

  1. Having unrealistic expectations

Most traders assume that it is very easy to make money in trading. They have unrealistic expectations with regard to their initial capital, their risk profile and how much money they can expect to make.

  1. Taking too much risk

Usually when traders are down, they want to make their money back very quickly. Therefore, they increase their position size without thinking about the risk/rewards.

  1. Not having rules to follow

Most traders think if they have rules to follow, they are restricting themselves. It is on the contrary. Having rules allows you to be more flexible since you have thought about lots of issues beforehand.

  1. Not being flexible to market conditions (more…)

Women and The Market

  
  Education
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1.) I suggest that one pays attention to the stocks that could care less if they are purchased or traded. The quiet ones. The non volatile ones.(the best, most stable women are thriving and so busy enjoying their lives they don’t really worry about being snagged, they have more men in pursuit than they can usually manage or have time for.) They are the best catches. They don’t dress to necessarily impress or seduce, they don’t have to.

2.) If the idea of competition stirs interest, don’t get seduced, investors might merely be competing with each other when they should be focused on learning about how the market moves and what she needs at the moment. The male or investor might miss something big being divulged or demonstrated when he worries about the competition. The conversation/connection with the woman or the market must be sustained fully.

3.) Men can NEVER be caught. Men fall in love first. If a woman tips her hand in this regard she is done. Men are suspect if something comes too easily. Unless he’s a narcissist and imagines that he is irresistible or invincible. It doesn’t hit him immediately that he has to have her. If a stock gains lots of attention it will probably lose it’s momentum soon and is probably just flirting with you or using you to create competition for the man she truly wants. Real interest from a woman is steady and climbs deliberately, carefully, without much frenzy. Watch out for those stocks and when you find one commit.

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