Traders should work on replacing subjectivity with cut and dry analysis. Keep yourself in a box and stick with what you know. The markets are complicated enough without our tendency to over analyze. All a trader needs is to learn how to read a small number of indicators and trade them well. Find a niche; your own niche. Simplification not complication makes a successful trader. When contemplating a trade think first and foremost about how much you are willing to lose before you attempt to calculate your expected gain. A stock is, at any given time, in the process of testing a specific price level. Questions that make a trading decision valid: WHY are you considering a trade? WHEN will you enter it? WHERE do you see it going? Multiple time frame correlation is important for high probability trades. Let the chart tell you its story. OBEY your rules of engagement…ALWAYS. Be well paid to be a follower. Loss of mental capital (drive, will, confidence) is greater than loss of monetary capital. Let the price action CONFIRM your trade analysis. Example: let a break-out test the break-out first. Trading Errors: The “Fudge” Factor 1. Trying to catch a falling knife. 2. Picking Tops 3. Failure to wait for confirmation. 4. Lack of patience. 5. Lack of a clear strategy. 6. Failure to assume responsibility. 7. Failure to quantify risk. |
Archives of “probability trades” tag
rssPosition Size Can Be More Important Than the Entry Price
Too many traders focus only on the entry price and pay insufficient attention to the size of the position. Trading too large can result in good trades being liquidated at a loss because of fear.
On the other hand, trading larger than normal when the profit potential appears to be much greater than the risk is one of the key ways in which many of the Market Wizards achieve superior returns. Trading smaller, or not at all, for lower probability trades and larger for higher probability trades can even transform a losing strategy into a winning one.
For example, Edward Thorp, who started out devising strategies to win at casino games before achieving an extraordinary return/risk record as a hedge fund manager, discovered that by varying the bet size based on perceived probabilities, he could transform the negative edge in Blackjack into a positive edge. An analogous principal would apply to a trading strategy in which it was possible to identify higher and lower probability trades.
6 Trading Sins
1. Thinking that trading is a get-rich-quick scheme.
2. Reacting emotionally to market movement instead of assessing the market rationally using proven methods for high probability trades.
3. Chasing the Market.
4. Lack of preparation – entering the market with little or no understanding of what the probabilities are and how to handle them. Being unaware of special events or announcements that may be big marketmovers.
5. Butterfly Trading. Trying one method after another without mastering any.
6. “Go-it-alone” Syndrome, hoping to discover the ‘secret code’ for trading. Most successful traders have learned from other successful traders. This can eliminate years of trial and error, and some very painful trading losses.
5 Mistakes Traders Make Again & Again
There is a big difference between bad traders and good traders, here is what I think separates one from the other:
- Bad traders continually have the desire to short the hottest stocks with the strongest momentum. What is their reasoning? “It can’t go any higher, this price is ridiculous.” Do they understand it is a bull market, no. Do they understand the technicals or fundamentals that are driving this stock? No. Bad traders just trade their beliefs good traders trade proven methods.
- Bad traders continually believe they have found the trade “That just can’t lose.” It is a sure thing. No doubt about it. They trade BIG, they trade a HUGE position size. Unfortunately the most obvious trades are usually the losing trades, so they lose, and lose big. Good traders divide out their trades so that no one trade has too big of an impact on their account. Good traders realize EVERY trade can win or lose so they plan a quick exit for if they are wrong.
- Bad traders do not do the proper homework before they begin to trade. Really Bad traders enter the markets with a mile of ego along with mud puddle deep understanding of what really works in trading. Bad traders have the belief that they are more clever than the markets and they can win based on their own intelligence. The problem is they do not do the homework of studying charts, trends, robust systems, winning methods, the right psychology for winning traders, risk/reward ratios, or the danger of the risk of ruin, or how the top performing stocks acted historically, and on and on. The good traders learn what it takes to succeed in trading, the complete story, while the bad traders learn some basics and think they are ready. They are wrong. The markets will show them.
- Bad traders make low probability trades, they are where the profits come from for the good traders. They go short in bull markets and long in bear markets. They sell naked puts on stocks collapsing into death spirals and sell calls on the best momentum stocks. They trade with big risks for small profits. They have a few small wins but some really huge losses. When they have a winner they take the profits quickly, but if they have a loser they let it run hoping that it will come back. They are the ones that lose the money, they are on the other side of the good traders trades.
- Bad traders want a good tip. They just want to be handed a winning system or a hot stock that just can’t lose. They do not even understand what all the talk of trading psychology and risk management is all about. They don’t need all that, they just want to make money. They just want the fish, they do not care about the fishing pole, bait, boat, or how to fish. Unfortunately they were to busy looking for that fish and didn’t understand the art of fishing, they will drown in the market ocean because they never learned how to swim themselves.
No Patience on Entry
Anticipating a signal that never comes is common for traders monitoring the market closely and eager to get some money working. For example, a good buying opportunity arises when a stock breaks from an ascending triangle. Jumping in ahead of the breakout is not an ideal situation because the probability of success buying an ascending triangle is not as good as buying a breakout from one. What causes this mistake? I think a fear of missing out on the maximum amount of profit or the fear of too much risk in buying a stock are the two most common mistakes. Essentially, the two guiding forces of the stock market are at work here; fear and greed. By buying early, we can realize a greater profit when the stock does breakout since we will have a lower average cost. Or, by buying early we can reduce risk since a breakout followed by a pull back through our stop will result in a smaller loss as we have a lower average cost. What tends to happen, however, is that the stock does not break out when expected and instead pulls back. This either leads to an unnecessary loss or an opportunity cost of the capital being tied up while other opportunities arise.
The Solution
The simple and obvious solution is to wait for the entry signal, but there are also some things you can do to help yourself stay disciplined. Rather than watch potentially good stocks tick by tick, use an alarm feature to alert you to when they actually make the break. Watching stocks constantly is somewhat hypnotic, and I think the charts can talk you in to making a trade. However, letting the computer watch the stock may help you avoid the stock’s evil trance. Another good solution is to focus on different thoughts when considering a stock. Don’t think about potential profits, don’t think about minimizing losses. Instead, focus in on the desire to execute high probability trades. It takes time to reprogram yourself, so persevere.
10 Attributes Exceptional Traders possess
- A persistent unquenchable motivation to compete and achieve personal stock market mastery
- A personally developed hands-on strategy in writing that fits your personality.
- The ability to be brutally honest and objective about your beliefs and weaknesses.
- An inner resiliency to weather all market storms with little emotional scar tissue.
- Well-defined risk management rules and an ability to accept responsibility for losses.
- Unassailable confidence in your system and yourself.
- Discipline to follow your methodology and act decisively.
- A strong ethic for working hard but also working smart.
- Patience and an ability to wait for high probability trades to materialize.
- A willingness to embrace change, to modify your thinking, to rewrite your methodology and transform yourself.
12 Trading Rules
1. Loss of opportunity is preferable to loss of capital
2. Picking safe, readable, and ultimately high probability trades is the way to go
3. Use logical profit objectives for all positions. Know your exits and stick to them
4. Markets are squirrelly animals – make your trading plans ahead of the market
5. Don’t buy new highs or sell new lows – wait for the market to come to you. Buy retracements. If you miss the train, don’t beat yourself up – another one will come by shortly
6. Above all, follow your own trading plan and no one else’s
7. Trade quietly – with the exception of a mentor, tell no one about your positions, profits, or losses. This is especially true for those who are close to you, like your wife, husband, or friends. This self-gratification process or sharing process will put you under psychological pressure to win on every trade and can be a primary reason for failure to follow your plan
8. Don’t carry a sizeable position when traveling. The market will always catch you off guard at the most inopportune time
9. You are only one trade from humility. A swelled head does not belong on a trader’s shoulders
10. Add to your knowledge before attempting to add to your wallet. Newbie traders think they can become pros with little more than a computer and hope. In this business, hope is a four letter word. Show me a humble trader, and I’ll show you someone ready to learn
11. Develop your sense of humor – you’ll definitely need it
12. Help other traders whenever you can. This is more practical than philosophical – giving keeps the ego in line and when you need help, and you will, you’ll find it.
Position Size Can Be More Important Than the Entry Price
Too many traders focus only on the entry price and pay insufficient attention to the size of the position. Trading too large can result in good trades being liquidated at a loss because of fear.
On the other hand, trading larger than normal when the profit potential appears to be much greater than the risk is one of the key ways in which many of the Market Wizards achieve superior returns. Trading smaller, or not at all, for lower probability trades and larger for higher probability trades can even transform a losing strategy into a winning one.
For example, Edward Thorp, who started out devising strategies to win at casino games before achieving an extraordinary return/risk record as a hedge fund manager, discovered that by varying the bet size based on perceived probabilities, he could transform the negative edge in Blackjack into a positive edge. An analogous principal would apply to a trading strategy in which it was possible to identify higher and lower probability trades.