Archives of “predicting the future” tag

rss

Good Traders & Bad Traders

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Good Traders

  1. The good traders that I have met are generous with their time and knowledge.
  2. Good traders are flexible in their trades and opinions they follow where the market takes them.
  3. The majority of good traders have simple charts that focus on price action. They focus on the simplicity of what works.
  4. A good trader will admit a loss and share what happened.
  5. Good traders are first and foremost traders, any service or product they offer is secondary.
  6. Good traders are humble and respect the market and the reality of trading.
  7. Good traders at times will call real trades and post entries and exits.
  8. Good traders are on social media not for show but for teaching and friendships and having fun.
  9. Good traders go with the current market trend.
  10. Those who make a comfortable living trading are playful, joking and happy .

 Bad Traders

  1. Many bad traders try to tear down others to make themselves feel superior. Good traders have no need to do this they have highly self esteems already. (more…)

Market Timing

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #

“Market timing is the art of making investment decisions using indicators and strategies to observe and determine the direction of prices. Many believe that market timing involves predicting the future, when in reality, the goal of market timing is to participate in periods of price strength and avoid periods of price weakness.?

Profitability -Market Timing

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula: Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability.

“Market timing is the art of making investment decisions using indicators and strategies to observe and determine the direction of prices. Many believe that market timing involves predicting the future, when in reality, the goal of market timing is to participate in periods of price strength and avoid periods of price weakness.? 

The 7 Habits of Highly Successful Traders

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

  1. Traders must have the perseverance to stick to trading until they break through to success. Many of the best traders are just the ones that had the strength to go through the pain, learn, and keep at it until they learned to be a success. number7-asr

  2. Great traders cut losing trades short. The ability to accept that you are wrong when a price goes to a place that you were not expecting is the skill to push the ego aside and admit you are wrong.
  3. Letting a winning trade run as far as it can go in your time frame is crucial to having big enough winners to pay for all your small losing trades. 
  4. Avoiding the risk of ruin by risking only a small portion of your capital on each trade is a skill to not get arrogant and trade too big, if you risk it all enough times you will lose it all eventually. 
  5. Being reactive to actual price action instead of predictive of what price action will be  is a winning principle I have seen in many rich traders. Letting price action give you signals is trading reality, trading your beliefs about what price should be is wishful thinking.
  6. Great traders are bullish in bull markets and bearish in bear markets, until the end when then trend bends. 

  7. Great traders care more about making money more than any other thing. Proving they are right, showing off, or predicting the future is not as important as hearing the register ring.

Ed Seykota Quotes

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Markets
The markets are the same now as they were five or ten years ago because they keep changing-just like they did then.
Short-Term Trading
The elements of good trading are cutting losses, cutting losses, and cutting losses.
Outcomes
Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.
I think that if people look deeply enough into their trading patterns, they find that, on balance, including all their goals, they are really getting what they want, even though they may not understand it or want to admit it.
Market Trends
The trend is your friend except at the end where it bends.
Charles Faulkner tells a story about Seykota’s finely honed intuition when it comes to trading: I am reminded of an experience that Ed Seykota shared with a group. He said that when he looks at a market, that everyone else thinks has exhausted its up trend, that is often when he likes to get in. When I asked him how he made this determination, he said he just puts the chart on the other side of the room and if it looked like it was going up, then he would buy it… Of course this trade was seen through the eyes of someone with deep insight into the market behavior.
Predicting the Future
If you want to know everything about the market, go to the beach. Push and pull your hands with the waves. Some are bigger waves, some are smaller. But if you try to push the wave out when it’s coming in, it’ll never happen. The market is always right.
Trading
To avoid whipsaw losses, stop trading.
Here’s the essence of risk management: Risk no more than you can afford to lose, and also risk enough so that a win is meaningful. If there is no such amount, don’t play.
Pyramiding instructions appear on dollar bills. Add smaller and smaller amounts on the way up. Keep your eye open at the top.
Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your prolem is not in the math. There is no math to ge you out of having to experience uncertainty.
It can be very expensive to try to convince the markets you are right.
System Trading
Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible. (more…)

Mental Toughness

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

MENTALTOUGHNESSYou must eliminate “Human Emotion” as much as possible in this business. It is paramount to success.  Unless you are adapt at predicting the future, your mind is a far weaker ally than all the tools in your toolbox.

Using a Star Wars analogy: the Jedi were superior in mind control and were able to play tricks with weaker minds. Humans are emotional bunches who are not fully prepared for the forex market.

Really once you overcome fear, self-doubt, emotions, and attachment to money you, will be on your way to long term success. Depending on how much power those words have over you, will determine amount of time needed to develop needed skills for growth.

Remember you will learn how to control fear, self-doubt, emotions, and attachment to money as those are human emotions buried inside each of us since birth. Abundance is our birthright, yet many never reach full potential. (more…)

John Paulson's 8 Secrets

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #
  1. Don’t follow the crowd.
  2. Have an exit strategy before the bubbles burst
  3. Focus on the debt markets for predicting the future.
  4. Take the time to figure out how fancy new investment products like credit default swaps (CDS) work.
  5. Buy insurance. No one wanted out of the money puts on the housing market.
  6. Remember the past. Some of the big winners in the housing crash were those dismissed as out-of-touch dinosaurs.
  7. Remember that no trade lasts forever so don’t fall in love with your investment. After making his $20 billion. Paulson went long banks at the bottom. (The verdict is still out on this trade).
  8. Timing is everything and luck helps.

Traders need 3 Keys

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

#1 Trading is not about winning percentage, being right all the time, or predicting the future. What it is about is having bigger winners than losers. If you are profitable after each long string of trades then you are a winning trader in that time frame. You can make money through winning percentage as long as you keep losers small and you can make money through huge wins even with lots of losses. The key is not how many times you are right but the size of your winners versus your losers. That is the magic elixir of profitability.

#2 Trading is first and foremost about surviving, the vast majority of traders not only don’t make money but they lose most of their trading capital. The only way to have a long profitable trading career is to manage risk and survive a string of losses. If your trading losses are more than 1% to 2% of total trading capital per  losing trade you are in danger of blowing up your account with a string of losing trades or one big loss. To make the journey from new trader to successful trader you have to survive losing streaks and completely unexpected market action. Trading and betting big will eventually take you out of the game, it is only a question of when.

#3 Trading is one of the roughest things a person can do mentally and emotionally. Even if you win in the markets you have to keep up a large amount of personal human capital in perseverance, passion, dedication, focus, and faith in self and system. If you are missing one of these six psychological elements the odds will be against you. You have to cultivate your goals and drive into a vision of success that you are willing to pursue until you get it and pay the price as you go to have the prize you seek.

Go to top