Archives of “Philosophy of science” tag

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Fed’s Beige Book: Economy expanded at slight-to-modest pace

  
  Analysis
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Highlights of the Fed’s anecdotal economic summary:

That’s a downgrade from modest previously.
Highlights:
  • Businesses see expansion continuing, many have cut outlook
  • Business activity varied across the country
  • Districts in south and west were more upbeat that midwest and great plains
  • Spending was solid on balance, housing market conditions changed little
  • Some districts suggested persistent trade tensions and slower global growth weighed on activity; early impact of GM strike was limited
  • Most expect economic expansion to continue; however many lowered their outlooks for growth in coming 6-12 months
  • A number of manufacturers reduced headcount because orders were soft, some cut hours rather than reduce staff
  • Wages rose moderately in most districts, with upwards pressure noted for lower-skill workers
  • Employers continued to use bonuses and benefits to attract and retain talent
  • Most districts characterized the recent pace of prices increases as modest
  • Retailers and manufacturers noted rising input costs
  • Shipping rates remained lower than they were earlier in the year because of excess capacity

Objectivity and Subjectivty in Trading

  
  Education
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Trading forces us to interact with the market, where price is objective – everyone can see the same thing. But human nature makes us subjective, that’s just part of being human, seeing the world (and the market) through our own filter of beliefs, hopes, and fears.  

The way to maximize performance in a situation where the objectivity of the market interacts with human subjectivity is to understand how your own subjective filter operates.

We have to do this for a number of reasons, with the big one being that the market will trigger our psychological vulnerabilities – sometimes I refer to them as our unmet developmental needs….the need  for approval, etc.  As traders  we must  understand how our personal filter operates and how it shapes our view of the market. (more…)

What U Can Learn From Occam’s Razor About TRADING

  
  Education
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I have seen too many traders that randomly add condition after condition to their trading strategy, hoping that it will increase their hitrate. What they are trying to do is to add assumption after assumption to their hypothesis, until their hypothesis (“price will move in to this or that direction for this or that amount”) is hopefully correct more often than not.

Going this way usually ends in paralysis through analysis or in total chaos because there are so many conditions when entering a trade that it is impossible for a human brain to follow the system, thus inducing mistakes.

 Enter: Occam’s Razor

Occam was one of those scholastic philosophers, living around 1300 A.D. He developed a principle called Occam’s Razor which states that “among competing hypotheses that predict equally well, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove to provide better predictions, but—in the absence of differences in predictive ability—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better.” But Occam was not the first, even Aristotle, who was living a mere 2000 years ago, theorized about this concept.

Now the thing is that of course when you add or remove certain conditions to your trading strategy, the predictive ability of your strategy will vary thus rendering Occam’s Razor seemingly invalid. Seemingly. Because trading is a game of incomplete information, we can never exactly know the predictive ability of a model.

Even after testing thoroughly, we will always only get an estimate (our winrate). Because of this fact you should base your trading strategy on as few assumptions as possible. (more…)

6 Ways to Separate Lies From Statistics

  
  Education
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1. Focus on how robust a finding is, meaning that different ways of looking at the evidence point to the same conclusion. Do the same patterns repeat in many data sets, in different countries, industries or eras?

2. Results that are Statistically Significant means it’s unlikely findings simply reflect chance. Don’t confuse this with something actually mattering.

3. Be wary of scholars using high-powered statistical techniques as a bludgeon to silence critics who are not specialists.

4. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking about an empirical finding as “right” or “wrong.”

5. Don’t mistake correlation for causation.

6. Always ask “so what?” The “so what” question is about moving beyond the internal validity of a finding to asking about its external usefulness.

THE BEST TRADERS ARE HUMBLE

  
  Education
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When an ordinary man attains knowledge, he is a sage; when a sage attains understanding, he is an ordinary man.

– Anonymous

With some technical trading knowledge and experience, you become a trader.

But when you become consistent and profitable, you feel ordinary again. This is because you’ve grown aware of the great uncertainty you face in the markets.

You’ve gained a strong appreciation of risk. In fact, your respect for risk is so deep that you would feel humble. And in that sense, you will feel ordinary.

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