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Trading Advice

  
  Education
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1) Cut Risk – It’s that “above all else, do no harm” principle. If you don’t have a feel for the market, trade small while you regain your feel. Preserve as much of your capital as possible to lay the foundation for your recovery; 

2) Focus on Your Strengths – It’s not unusual for frustrated traders to try to make all kinds of changes in their trading in a frantic effort to gain some traction. These efforts can compound difficulties by getting traders further and further from their strengths. During rebuilding periods, you want to focus on the markets and strategies that you know most about, that represent your strengths. 

3) Reach Out – It’s especially helpful to reach out to traders who trade markets and strategies similar to yours. Are they also struggling? If so, this suggests that market changes, indeed, may be at the root of the problem. If the traders you contact are succeeding, try to find out what they’re doing differently from you. It may well be that a simple tweaking of execution, holding times, and risk management could turn your performance around.  (more…)

3 Key Lessons For All Traders

  
  Education
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Don’t Confuse the Concepts of Winning and Losing Trades with Good and Bad Trades
A good trade can lose money, and a bad trade can make money. 
Even the best trading processes will lose a certain percentage of the time. There is no way of knowing a priori which individual trade will make money. As long as a trade adhered to a process with a positive edge, it is a good trade, regardless of whether it wins or loses because if similar trades are repeated multiple times, they will come out ahead. Conversely, a trade that is taken as a gamble is a bad trade regardless of whether it wins or loses because over time such trades will lose money.
If You Are Out of Sync with the Markets, Trying Harder Won’t Help
When trading is going badly, trying harder is often likely to make matters even worse. If you are in a losing streak, the best action may be to step away from the markets. Clark advises that the best way to handle a losing streak is to liquidate everything and take a vacation. A physical break can serve to interrupt the downward spiral and loss of confidence that can develop during losing periods. Clark further advises that when trading is resumed, the size should be kept small until confidence is regained.
The Road to Success Is Paved with Mistakes
Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, strongly believes that learning from mistakes is essential to improvement and ultimate success. Each mistake, if recognized and acted upon, provides an opportunity for improving a trading approach. Most traders would benefit by writing down each mistake, the implied lesson, and the intended change in the trading process. Such a trading log can be periodically reviewed for reinforcement. Trading mistakes cannot be avoided, but repeating the same mistakes can be, and doing so is often the difference between success and failure.

GEMS from :The Daily Trading Coach

  
  Education
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The Daily Trading Coach covers just about any psychology or behavioral issue  the trader may face.  I cannot help but recommend it.  There are 101 lessons here divided into 10 chapters.  Let’s dig into each chapter and uncover a gem within.

Today again completed reading this Book…Yes 5th time !!

1. The Process and the Practice:  “Confidence doesna’t come from being right all the time: it comes from surviving the many occasions of being wrong” (27). 

2. Stress and Distress:  “Thinking positively or negatively about performance outcomes interfere with the process of performing.  When you focus on the doing, the outcomes take care of themselves” (56). 

3.  Psychological Well-Being:  “We can recognize the happy trader because he is immersed in the process of trading and finds fulfillment from the process even when markets are not open” (72).

4.  Steps Toward Self-Improvement:  “Your trading strengths can be found in the patterns that repeat across successful trades” (105).

5.  Breaking Old Patterns:  “Many trading problems are the result of acting out personal dramas in markets” (133)

6.  Remapping the Mind: “When we change the lenses through which we view events, we change our responses to those events” (168)

7.  Learn New Action Patterns: “Find experienced traders who will not be shy in telling you when you are making mistakes.  In their lessons, you will learn to teach yourself” (203)

8.  Coaching Your Trading Business:  “Long before you seek to trade for a living, you should work at trading competence: just breaking even after costs” (230)

9.  Lessons From Trading Professionals:  “If you don’t trust yourself or your methods, you will not find the emotional resilience to weather periods of loss” (267)

10.  Looking For the Edge: “The simplest [trading] patterns will tend to be the most robust” (311).

And a final admonition:  “Know what you do best. Build on strengths. Never stop working on yourself. Never stop improving. Every so often, upset the apple cart and pursue wholly new challenges.  The enemy of greatness is not evil; it’s mediocrity.  Don’t settle for mediocre” (341).

Three Keys to Trading Success

  
  Education
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The successful trader is creative. I think it’s fair to say that his approach is a short-term trend-following method. His way of evaluating the market trend, however, is unique. He is definitely not just looking at the same old 14-period oscillator that comes pre-programmed in most charting applications. Similarly, he has clear stop points and price targets, but these are defined in a unique way, based upon the market conditions he’s observing. This “out-of-the-box” thinking style is common to successful traders, I’ve found. They look at markets in unique ways that help them capture shifts in supply and demand. to find a way of trading that you can make your own. You’re more likely to stick with a method that fits with how you think (and that fits with your skills) than if it’s something you’ve blindly copied from others. Our trader believes in his method, and that gives him the brass ones to hang in there during relatively lean periods.

2) The successful trader is always seeking improvement. If our trader is already successful, why does he need to talk with Henry? He knew that, by sharing his ideas, he would learn a great deal about the strengths and weaknesses of his trading. Sure enough, Henry found that the average size of the trader’s losers was larger than it needed to be. A simple modification of stop-loss rules improved the system’s performance meaningfully. Similarly, by putting a filter on the system–only taking trades if certain conditions were met–the average profit per trade went up significantly. That could aid position sizing. The trader knew he had something good, but good wasn’t good enough. He wanted better.

3) The successful trader is persistent. One thing I want to stress: the trader’s methods were very sound–and Henry found ways to make them better–but they were not perfect. Out of about sixty months analyzed, fourteen were losers. The drawdowns were not hellacious, but there were periods of flat performance and drawdown. What that means is that a successful trader needs to have the confidence to ride out these periods of poorer performance to get to the periods of success. That is one reason why it’s so important

Jim Rogers-I own the dollar.Will I own it in five years, ten years? I don't know.

  
Analysis, Education
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Jim Rogers decries the growing uncertainty and recklessness of global central planners as the world enters unchartered financial markets:

  For the first time in recorded history, we have nearly every central bank printing money and trying to debase their currency. This has never happened before. How it’s going to work out, I don’t know. It just depends on which one goes down the most and first, and they take turns. When one says a currency is going down, the question is against what? because they are all trying to debase themselves. It’s a peculiar time in world history.

 
I own the dollar, not because I have any confidence in the dollar and not because it’s sound – it’s a terribly flawed currency – but I expect more currency turmoil, more financial turmoil. During periods like that, people, for whatever reason, flee to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. It is not a safe haven, but it is perceived that way by some people. That’s why the dollar is going up. That’s why I own it. Will I own it in five years, ten years? I don’t know. 

It makes it extremely difficult for the investor looking for acceptable risk/reward, or the saver looking to protect their purchasing power; as in Rogers’ view, all options have their problems:

  

I own gold and silver and precious metals. I own all commodities, which is a better way to play as they debase currencies. I own more agriculture than just about anything else in real assets because of the reasons we discussed before. We were talking before about the risk-free or worry-free investment. Even gold: the Indian politicians are talking about coming down hard on gold, and India is the largest buyer of gold in the world. If Indian politicians do something — whether it’s foolish or not is irrelevant — if they do something, gold could go down a lot. So I own it. I’m not selling it. But everything has problems.

Learning through failure

  
  Education
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failureVery often we learn more from our failures than from our successes. The  path to success travels inevitably through certain failures.

 A look at successful traders and entrepreneurs shows that they have been  able to survive failure as many times as they have had to. They use failure  as feedback. They learn from it and make changes and go on. Many super  traders have experienced crushing loss in their  early trading years. All of  them picked themselves up, made adjustments, and with the sure belief that  they could make it back through better trading, did just that.  (more…)

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