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The Difference: Mediocrity vs. Greatness

In Trading, the STATISTICS show that smarts, experience, etc. are not the differentiating factor.
The BEST (most successful guys I know and work with) have winning %’s of less than 50%.. actually, the average is between 45-55% but the point is, basically, winning percentages don’t matter – so they might as well be a random event.

 So, what does make a difference?

 

  • CONVICTION in ideas
  • INTERNAL CONFIDENCE
  • TRUSTING YOURSELF
  • GETTING BIG IN TRADES you believe in
  • LETTING WINNERS RUN
  • CUTTING LOSERS QUICKLY
  • SWITCHING DIRECTIONS QUICKLY

 

 These are many of the factors that allow some people to become monster traders over time. It’s not my opinion, just my observations. 

4 Trading Mistakes

1.  Do the Math
 

Sit down and go over your expected Risk to Reward Ratio for each trade.  If you have already been trading for a period of time sit down and analyse how much you are making each trade and your winning %.  These two numbers will help you formulate a solid profit goal.  No trading strategy works 100% of the time so you need to work out how much you lose per losing trade vs. how much you make per winning trade and then figure in your percentages.  From there you should have a realistic idea of how much you can expect to make in through your trading. 

2.  Don’t Expect Instant Returns
 

Trading is a business and like any other business it requires not only capital investment but time investment as well.  It takes time to find your rhythm and develop your trading skills.  Try not to be to hard on yourself during the learning phase and remember to focus on the positive aspects of your trading.  The vast majority of traders lose money and this number is even higher with traders who are just starting out.  Factor this in when you are setting your goals.

3.  Skill vs. Profits
 

Try to come up with goals that are not directly tied to your P&L statements.  For example, set a goal of following your rules for every trade for an entire trading day.  Once that is completed shoot for an entire week, then a month, and pretty soon you will be doing following your rules without even realising it.   Train yourself to develop your trading skills and reward yourself when you reach those goals. 

4.  It Takes Money
 

It takes money to make money.  Small accounts are fantastic for testing out whether or not trading is for you but when you get serious and want to go full time make sure you have enough capital to support your business.  Solid traders should expect to make 8% in the market over the course of a month.  That equates to 96% over a given trading year.  Make sure this figure allows you to have the lifestyle that you are expecting. 

John Murphy’s Ten Laws of Technical Trading

1. Map the Trends

Study long-term charts. Begin a chart analysis with monthly and weekly charts spanning several years. A larger scale map of the market provides more visibility and a better long-term perspective on a market. Once the long-term has been established, then consult daily and intra-day charts. A short-term market view alone can often be deceptive. Even if you only trade the very short term, you will do better if you’re trading in the same direction as the intermediate and longer term trends.

2. Spot the Trend and Go With It

Determine the trend and follow it. Market trends come in many sizes – long-term, intermediate-term and short-term. First, determine which one you’re going to trade and use the appropriate chart. Make sure you trade in the direction of that trend. Buy dips if the trend is up. Sell rallies if the trend is down. If you’re trading the intermediate trend, use daily and weekly charts. If you’re day trading, use daily and intra-day charts. But in each case, let the longer range chart determine the trend, and then use the shorter term chart for timing.

3. Find the Low and High of It

Find support and resistance levels. The best place to buy a market is near support levels. That support is usually a previous reaction low. The best place to sell a market is near resistance levels. Resistance is usually a previous peak. After a resistance peak has been broken, it will usually provide support on subsequent pullbacks. In other words, the old “high” becomes the new low. In the same way, when a support level has been broken, it will usually produce selling on subsequent rallies – the old “low” can become the new “high.”

4. Know How Far to Backtrack (more…)