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It was a big week for the US dollar but one currency managed to hang with it

  
Analysis, Forex
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USD was the top performer this week, GBP lagged

USD was the top performer this week, GBP lagged
The top performing currencies this week help to demonstrate the power of technical support and central banks. It’s no surprise that the high-flying US dollar was on top but right behind it was the Australian dollar.
The main reasons AUD was able to hold up was an improvement in sentiment around coronavirus. The RBA decision also briefly lent support, despite Lowe warning that Q1 GDP was possible.
The final factor was that AUD/USD was springing from support levels at the start of the week. That gave bulls a way to manage risk and encouraged buyers.
The warning sign is that the pair peaked mid-week and broke that support today, at least tentatively. If the extension continues next week, the same technical buying support will quickly become selling pressure and this week’s AUD outperformance could be next week’s underperformance.
AUDUSD chart

Loss Aversion

  
  Education
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There’s a short Danny Kahneman interview at the Daily Beast here.  He notes why your best friends may not be your best advisors:

 Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them. 

 That’s the Kahneman I love to read, profound and interesting. But then he follows with this sentence:

For example, one important source of bad decisions is loss aversion, by which we put far more weight on what we may lose than on what we may gain.  (more…)

Patience

  
  Education
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PATIENCE FOR U1) If you insist on trading during unstable or volatile markets, keep your positions small.

2) If you go into cash, don’t get upset on days when we rally, it’s simply part of the game.

3) Don’t buy or sell stocks because someone else is doing it. Have your OWN plan, find a philosophy that works for YOU, and don’t blindly follow anyone!

4) Wait for the wind to be at your back. Right now, it’s swirling. No sense in forcing trades to make a few pennies when there are dollars to be made in better environments.

5) Let the market correct, let the dust settle, don’t be in such a rush to trade. I see too many people trying to bottom-fish this market and I feel like screaming: “You don’t have to trade!”

I am not saying all this to be an ass. I simply want traders to learn from my mistakes. I have lost too much money in the past by forcing trades in unfavorable environments. You are better off protecting your capital and more importantly, protecting your confidence. Wait for proper bases to form, wait for some institutional accumulation, and wait for sentiment to be “less bullish.” In other words, wait for a healthier environment…it might not be that far away. The key right now is discipline and patience.

Managing Risk

  
  Education
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Over the years I’ve been fortunate enough to get to know thousands of market participants. Some are long-term investors others are scalping pennies per trade on thousands of shares while others manage millions of other people’s money. The interesting theme I picked up on with nearly every one of them is that they each experienced panic and uncertainty at certain times in the market. Oftentimes, this panic stems from the inability to make sense of the market, to gain control of market participation. Thoughts such as whether or not too much capital is at work or perhaps not enough or even whether or not to be in the market at all seemed to consume them.

This ambivalence can consume and debilitate even the best market participants. The uncertainty or self-doubt about market participation is common yet finding a solution is not. The greater the level of uncertainty felt the higher the odds are that risk is being misperceived. Here are some questions that I’ve asked to assess whether risk was real or perceived:

  • What are your reactions, both physical and emotional, to a losing trade? A winning trade?
  • Have you rationalized recent losses?
  • Has your out-of-market homework/research fallen behind?
  • Do you monitor your positions by dollars or percentages?
  • Have you ever not taken a trade that made sense simply because you were burned before?
  • Has the number of indicators you use to enter/manage/exit a position increased/decreased lately?
  • Do you know the Beta of your portfolio?
  • What would others say about you when asked about your risk management?

In a sense, managing risk involves managing the emotional side of trading so that the focus can be on the cognitive side of trading. As an example, if I’m concerned with the direction of the market because my traditional analysis methods are giving unclear signals then it probably doesn’t make much sense for me to participate. My biases will impact the data, whether it’s of a technical or fundamental nature, and lead to poor decisions. If I’m unable to clearly define what sectors are leading and which are lagging and, more importantly, why they are moving in the direction they are, then my risk is skewed. It’s times like these that large losses can accrue as objectivity is clouded by subjectivity.

I’ve always used sleep as a gauge to help me know if I’m in-line with real risk. If I’m able to sleep at night and wake up excited to participate in the market then I know that the odds are good I’m managing my risk. If I’m unable to get a good night’s sleep and lay awake wondering about positions I have on the odds are good that my risk management is off. Yea, I’m pretty simple.

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