rss

Must Read Quotes For Traders

“Good investing is a peculiar balance between the conviction to follow your ideas and the flexibility to recognize when you have made a mistake.“-Michael Steinhardt
Do not stay bullish or bearish. Go with the current flow of the market. Be on the team that is making the money.
“There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.” -Jesse Livermore
When putting it all together, it is more than just numbers. Successful traders trade in three dimensions.
“Successful trading depends on the 3M`s – Mind, Method and Money. Beginners focus on analysis, but professionals operate in a three dimensional space. They are aware of trading psychology their own feelings and the mass psychology of the markets. Each trader needs to have a method for choosing specific stocks, options or futures as well as firm rules for pulling the trigger – deciding when to buy and sell. Money refers to how you manage your trading capital.” – Alexander Elder
The money is in the primary market trend, not jumping in and out.
“I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements-that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.” – Jesse Livermore (more…)

Losers Average Losers

There is a famous picture of Paul Tudor Jones relaxing in his office with his feet kicked up. A single sheet of loose-leaf paper is tacked on the wall behind him with the simple phrase written out in black marker: “Losers Average Losers”. Trite meaningless talk? Not so fast.

Famed trader Jesse Livermore warned 100 years ago against averaging losses. For example, you buy a stock at 50, and two or three days later if you can buy it at 47, you average down by buying another hundred shares, making an average price of 48.5. Having bought at 50 and being concerned over a three-point loss on a hundred shares, what rhyme or reason is there in adding another hundred shares and having the double worry when the price hits 44? At that point, there would be a $600 loss on the first hundred shares and a $300 loss on the second shares. If you are able to apply such an unsound principle, you can keep on averaging down by buying 200 at 44, then 400 at 41, 800 at 38, 1600 at 35, 3200 at 32, 6400 at 29, and so on (source: Jesse L. Livermore, How to Trade in Stocks: The Livermore Formula for Combining Time Element and Price).

Losses are a part of the game. You want no losses? You want positive returns every month? It does not work that way, that is, not unless you were lucky enough to be invested in the Bernard Madoff Ponzi-scheme which has resulted in assorted criminal convictions and a few suicides. Losses are not your problem. Its how you react to them. Ignore losses with no plan, or try to double down on your losses to recoup, and those losses will come back like a Mack truck to run over your account.

Wisdom Not to Be Ignored

Don’t frown, double down! Not smart strategy.

Escalator up, express elevator down.

You can’t win if you are not willing to lose. It’s like breathing in, but not breathing out.

Paul Tudor Jones: 13 Insights

13 Insights From Paul Tudor Jones

1. Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape (and proud of it).

2. Younger generation are hampered by the need to understand (and rationalize) why something should go up or down. By the time that it becomes self-evident, the move is over.

3. When I got into the business, there was so little information on fundamentals, and what little information one could get was largely imperfect. We learned just to go with the chart. (Why work when Mr. Market can do it for you?)

4. There are many more deep intellectuals in the business today. That, plus the explosion of information on the Internet, creates an illusion that there is an explanation for everything. Hence, the thinking goes, your primary task is to find that explanation.

As a result of this poor approach, technical analysis is at the bottom of the study list for many of the younger generation, particularly since the skill often requires them to close their eyes and trust price action. The pain of gain is just too overwhelming to bear.

5. There is no training — classroom or otherwise — that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. The only way to learn how to trade during that last, exquisite third of a move is to do it, or, more precisely, live it. (more…)

Key Quotes From Paul Tudor Jones in TRADER: The Documentary

Paul Tudor Jones is famous for correctly predicting Black Monday when the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 22 percent in one day. I recently re-watched TRADER: The Documentary, one of the classics in investor education. Wikipedia describes it as:

In the 1987, PBS film “TRADER: The Documentary”. The film shows Mr. Jones as a young man predicting the 1987 crash, using methods similar to market forecaster Robert Prechter.

Although the video was shown on public television in November 1987, very few copies exist. Those that do are hoarded by traders who watch the hourlong movie in the hope of gleaning possible trading tips from Jones. On the Internet, bids for the video start at $295. According to Michael Glyn, the video’s director, Jones requested in the 1990s that the documentary be removed from circulation. The video surfaced briefly on YouTube at the end of July 2009, before being taken down due to alleged copyright violation.

For the past two years, the video has been available here at Tudou, but recently has only been limited to viewers in Asia due to copyright violation. I watched a copy that I had saved to my local hard drive recently with the purpose of transcribing certain portions that I found particularly enlightening.

One theme throughout the documentary is that Paul Tudor Jones and other individuals profiled thoroughly enjoy the act of analyzing financial markets and they are not primarily driven by greed. This is a defining characteristic of investment managers who have reached the top of their profession:

Well I originally decided to come here to be on vacation, getting away from everything. Then as it turned out, a number of the clients are here in Europe, so I’ve been doing an enormous amount of business. I’ve been in Paris, I’ve been in Geneva, so I can combine business with pleasure. I wish it had been more pleasure, but I still wouldn’t trade it for anything in the world. If life ever ceased to be an educational experience, I probably wouldn’t get out of bed.
After a while, the size means nothing. It gets back to the question of whether you’re making a 100 percent rate-of-return on $10,000 or $100 million. It doesn’t make any difference. If you complete 78 percent of your passes, it’d be nice if you were in the NFL, but if you’re in college or high school or even elementary school, I’m sure the thrill is just as great.
 

Paul Tudor Jones’s intensity and passion is quite apparent throughout as well. The film crew follows him over a course of several months, so viewers are able to see him on a down 5 percent day and an up 5 percent day. Paul Tudor Jones shares some insights on the qualities he values most as an investment manager:

The whole concept of the investment manager making these incredible intellectual decisions about which way the market is going to go — I don’t want that guy managing my money. If he can be that dispassionate, he doesn’t have the competitive nature which is necessary to be a winner in this game. I want the guy who is not giving to panic, who is not going to be overly emotionally involved, but who is going to hurt when he loses. When he wins, he’s going to have quiet confidence. But when he loses, he’s gotta hurt.
To do the job right requires such an enormous amount of concentration. It’s physically and emotionally mandatory that you find some time to relax. And you’ve got to be able to turn it off like that. There will be times though that I get so incredibly excited about a trade or even a project that I’ll wake up at 4 o’clock in the morning and there’s no way in hell that I’m going back to sleep. I’ll sit there in my dreams and trade for four hours. (more…)

Top 10 Trading Influences

If New Trader University had a campus this would be the professors:

Dan Zanger is a world record holding trader that taught me to use in the money stock options on the biggest monster stocks to amplify my returns with no added risk at key points. He is the king of chart patterns.

Alexander Elder taught me how the trader’s Mind, Method, and Money Management have to all work together for a trader to be successful.

Michael Covel showed me how the best trend following traders in the world win over the long term by simply following the trend. Finding the big trends is now my focus above all else.

Jesse Livermore knew how to make a fortune in bull and bear markets, in commodities or stocks. His only weakness was the management of the risk of ruin. He made some of the biggest fortunes in the history of trading and also blew up his account more times than other legends.

Nicolas Darvas showed me how to ride monster stocks 100 points farther than anyone else seemed to believe they could go. His lessons also showed me how to miss bear market draw downs.

Van Tharp‘s marble game on how to manage the risk of ruin was a game changer for me. Managing risk is really what determines a trader’s long term survival not stock picking.

William O’Neil showed me how to pick the real winning stocks based on historical models not opinions. He has studied what has really made money in the stock market historically better than anyone else I know. I get my stock watch list from his publication Investor’s Business Daily’s IBD 50.

Ed Seykota is truly a master trader and he has the returns to prove it. Mr. Seykota believes that a trader’s psychology determines a trader’s success more than any other factor.  I believe him.

Jack Schwager wrote “Market Wizards” and really got into the specific nuts and bolts of what makes them win.

Paul Tudor Jones I have picked up a lot of trading wisdom form his documentary, quotes, and interview. He is truly one of the greatest  traders of our time.

If you decide to study these great traders keep what actually makes you money in the long term and discard what does not.

Good Habits

When a new trader comes to me for advice, quite often they have suffered initial losses from their trading activities (sometimes heavy ones) and have not really had a focussed overall trading plan set out, or if they have, they’ve not followed it.

Even if you start trading with limited capital, it is important that you start ingraining good habits as early as you can. Principal amongst these is ensuring that you do not trade too large positions relative to your overall equity. 

Depending on your chosen method of trading, transaction costs can also eat into a small account, and the trading vehicle you choose to use should be carefully considered.

However, it is a well known maxim that the vast majority of new traders blow up their accounts within 6 months. This is not necessarily as a result of their method of choosing their entries and exits (although that undoubtedly helps) but more as a result of risking way too much on each trade, or in extreme cases having a complete disregard for risk.

Trading is a marathon not a sprint, and to stay in the game you need to exhibit strong risk control right from the off. The sooner you can ingrain that in your method and your mind, the better. Even the best did not necessarily get a grip on risk control early in their careers – in Market Wizards Paul Tudor Jones talks about losing 70% of his equity on a single trade relatively early in his career. It was only after that experience did he go away and implement rigorous risk control.

From having risk under control, unemotional trading decisions can be taken, improving your mindset and allowing you to follow your system with no risk of self-sabotage. Allied to a proven method for selecting entry and exit points, you will be well on the journey to trading success.

The Wisdom of the Legendary Paul Tudor Jones

At 56, Paul Tudor Jonesis a  self made billionaire with a net worth of 3.3 billion and is ranked as the 336th richest  person in the world, he  knows exactly how to trade the biggest money for the biggest returns. One of Jones’ earliest and major successes was anticipating and trading through Black Monday in 1987, tripling his money during the event due to large short positions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (-22.61%) on that day. While the majority of others lost more than they ever had in their lifetime, Jone’s was on the other side of their trade making a fortune. That is the sign of a truly great trader making money at the tipping points that most others miss.  Paul Tudor Jones has returned double digit annual returns to his investors for decades. He is one of the greatest traders to have ever lived, we need to sit up and listen closely to his advice, it is priceless.

Risk Management

“Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.”

“Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt.”

“At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control.”

Trader Psychology

“Every day I assume every position I have is wrong.”

“Losers average losers.”

“Trading is very competitive and you have to be able to handle getting your butt kicked.”

Method

“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.”

“The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.”

“The concept of paying one-hundred-and-something times earnings for any company for me is just anathema. Having said that, at the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down so really who gives a damn about PE’s?”
“The whole world is simply nothing more than a flow chart for capital.”
That cotton trade was almost the deal breaker for me. It was at that point that I said, ‘Mr. Stupid, why risk everything on one trade? Why not make your life a pursuit of happiness rather than pain?’

Trading Wisdom – Paul Tudor Jones

Paul Tudor Jones
Turned $1.5 million into $300 million in five years
“That cotton trade was almost the deal breaker for me. It was at that point that I said, “Mr. Stupid, why risk everything on one trade? Why not make your life a pursuit of happiness rather than pain?”
I had to learn discipline and money management. I decided that I was going to become very disciplined and businesslike about my trading. I spend my day trying to make myself as happy and relaxed as I can be.
If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them. I am always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Risk control is the most important thing in trading. I keep cutting my position size down as I have losing trades. (more…)