Archives of “odds” tag

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Observation

  
  Education
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observation2

  • -If you find yourself holding a winning position, adding up your profits, and confidently projecting larger gains on the horizon, you are probably better off exiting the trade. The odds are that the trade has run its course.
  • -When entering a trade with a market order and your fill is clearly better than expected, odds are it will end up being a losing trade. Good fill, bad trade. Get out!
  • -If all your ‘trading buddies’ agree with your expectations regarding the next big move, it probably will not work out. If everyone’s conviction level is as strong as the consensus, do the opposite.

On Trading Psychology

  
  Education
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From “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” by Edwin Lefevre, the 1923 classic pseudo-autobiography of legendary trader Jesse Livermore:

… I didn’t always win. My plan of trading was sound enough and won oftener than it lost. If I had stuck to it I’d have been right perhaps as often as seven out of ten times. In fact, I always made money when I was sure I was right before I began. What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game — that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily — or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.

Sometimes the best play is to not play at all. When playing the market, you have to let the opportunities come to you, and take advantage of them when the odds are in your favor. If you don’t, you’ll get very frustrated — and you’ll lose money.

The Probability of Self-awareness

  
  Education
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With 20 years of trying different things and hearing from others I made an important discovery that has shaped me as a trader and a coach.  What I found is that more people will improve using an approach to change that emphasizes expanding self-awareness and emotional intelligence.

(With so many different approaches advertised as a ‘change process’, I think its important to share what I’ve found to work. That’s really what we have to do, right?  Doing more of what works and less of what doesn’t.)

Very briefly, what I mean by expanded self-awareness is:

1) the recognition that our thinking and our emotions are intertwined and both influence our perception and judgment that leads to our decisions and actions (this view also happens to be consistent what the leading brain scientists are now saying)

2) much of our motivation – the intertwined thinking/emotion that drives our behavior – is actually subconscious, e.g. we assume we are trading the market but on other levels we are also trading our P&L and our feelings about our P&L  (and what our P&L represents to us) is just one example. (more…)

Bend your will to focus on the war

  
  Education
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bendyourwill

  • 1) Allow yourself to enjoy the victories. Traders have a tendency to get very upset about busted trades and in so doing burn memories strongly in their minds. The same traders get little satisfaction from the good trades, thus not burning as strong a memory. If you have done your homework, followed your rules, entered and exited the trade as planned, then give yourself credit and enjoy it. You deserve it.  
  • 2) Take control of your beliefs. Successful traders are realistic about trading when accepting the fact that trading is a game of probabilities. Successful traders believe in probabilities and in so doing know that with each trade there is a higher probability the trade will work than not. How do they know this? Because they have tested and traded their set up(s) enough times to know that the odds are in their favor. However, the successful traders also know that favorable odds do not guarantee success 100% of the time. Successful traders believe with each trade that the odds are in their favor but they also believe that the trade will not always work. By knowing this successful traders will be able to enter every trade with a clear mind open to the fact that anything can happen NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENED ON THE LAST TRADE! If you believe this then you will never focus on the last trade, only on the present one.

 You cannot live in the past so there is no need to trade in it either.  Just as every day is a new one so is every trade.  Focus on the present battle and in war you will be victorious!!

The Difference Between Gamblers and Traders

  
  Education
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Yes, the vast majority of traders are gamblers, maybe the majority of market participants are in fact gamblers. The traders that are gamblers trade with no plan and without understanding the odds are stacked against them. Whether it is buying far out of the money options with no method for profitability or randomly chasing stocks on a whim, gambling is when you risk money with the odds against you and have no edge. The losses of the gamblers is where the majority of the profits come from to the winning traders in the markets who have an edge.

Now the other side is the traders that consistently win by using an edge that gives them an advantage over the other traders. The winning traders are not trading against the casino they are trading against the gamblers. They have become the casino, like the casino they know the odds are in their favor and they will be profitable in the long run. Like the casino has table limits they have risk management to not over expose themselves to any one bet by the gamblers. The biggest problem that gamblers have is their emotions that cause them to always lose in the long term by placing bets based on feelings instead of the odds. The winning traders trade based on probabilities being in their favor and pick their trades carefully based on the best chances of success.

The casinos are built from the losses of the gamblers, the winning traders accounts are built on the gambling of the traders with no plan, no edge, and no risk management.

6 Effective Ways to Trading Success

  
  Education
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1.  Identify if you really want to be a trader. Is this truly your desire?

Before you can develop persistence and eventually achieve success in the tough trading game, you need to first identify if this is truly what you want to do. If you are only doing this for the money then the odds of you making it through the learning process is very slim. You have to be ‘foolish’ enough through your initial losses to believe that you can rise to the top 10% of profitable traders. Most traders learning curves are measured in years not weeks so trading is more like getting a degree than reading a book over the weekend.

2. Determine your motivation. Why do you want to be a trader?

Motivation comes from a deep reason why we want to achieve or have something.  If you know why you’re doing what you’re doing, it gives you more energy to keep moving forward in learning and getting experience. If you are trading to make a quick buck, then you do not make that buck quickly you will join the quitters. If you are trading to have enough money to pay off your house in 5 years that will create the energy to drive you forward against the odds.

You can get through this first learning stage by writing down specifically all the things you want to have or accomplish through your trading.  List all your desires and wants, all the rewards that will come through you not quitting the trading game. This is what will get you through if your heart is in it. You need a very big bucket of carrots waiting for you on the other side of trading success to get through the whips the market will hit you with while you are learning.

3. Outline Your Definite Action Step

Identifying your wants or desires speaks of what you want to achieve.  Determining your motivation shows the reasons why you want to achieve what you want.  Outlining your definite action step is necessary to know howyou will be able to achieve what you want.

When you know how to get what you want, it makes it easier to achieve it.  To know how, it pays to do some research and planning of what needs to be done on your part.  Be specific on each step you need to take.  Identify at least two ways and plans on how you can achieve your goals.

4. Keep the right mindset, believe that you are going to be a winning trader. (more…)

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