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The Coin Flip Test And Trade Probability -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Education
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Since we are human merchants and we like what we do, executing the above-portrayed model would require a ton of tolerance and it would likewise be extremely exhausting. we better utilize a computerized forex-system to execute this coin-choice exchanging model. all we would need to do is truly utilize a guarded hazard the board of most extreme 1% per exchange, on the grounds that a half winning-likelihood would not imply that we would not need to confront 10 or 15 failure exchanges a column! recollect that these probabilities become valid in the long run!

since we like to inhale and encounter the business sectors, and we obviously need to exchange physically utilizing specialized examination or key news, we should now have a more critical investigation of the universe of cash the board, stop misfortune, take benefit, and obviously additionally the satisfactory exchange volume. since section 1 of this article arrangement, we realize how a dealer can ensure his record by straightforward RISK MANAGEMENT counts. this is totally vital and its significance can’t be rehashed regularly enough!

Presently, in the comic, sadly, flipism didn’t turn out to be well for Donald. A coin flip for every choice brought about a progression of incidents for poor Donald. Amusingly, however, so as to bargain out some proper recompense, Donald managed to pursue down the con artist Professor Batty by finding the misrepresentation behind the correct entryway dependent on a coin flip, so maybe the way of thinking holds some legitimacy. In spite of the fact that I don’t really advocate carrying on with a real existence dependent on coin flips, incidentally, coin flips and the hidden factual rules that administer coin flips are especially powerful when applied to certain issues normally looked in the information.

without utilizing any investigation technique each time you open exchange, you have a half possibility that the exchange goes toward you! the reality of the situation may prove that in 10 exchanges it goes 8 or multiple times toward you, or against you… be that as it may, in 1.000 exchanges you will have indirect 500 victors and 500 washouts. you can contrast that with tossing a coin. the more regularly you toss a coin the more you can be certain, that the scientific probability will appear and affirm the half possibility for each side of the coin or every bearing of an exchange. knowing this, all you need to do ist to pick an SL/TP-RATIO of 1:2. for instance 20 pips SL and 40 pips TP. in the event that you currently win each second exchange (half), you will naturally make benefits!

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Corporate Lessons

  
Education, Life
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CORPORATE LESSON 1

A man is getting into the shower just as his wife is finishing up her shower when the doorbell rings. The wife quickly wraps herself in a towel and runs downstairs. When she opens the door, there stands Bob, the next door neighbor. Before she says a word, Bob says, ‘I’ll give you $800 dollars to drop that towel.”

After thinking for a moment, the woman drops her towel and stands naked in front of Bob. After a few seconds, Bob hands her $800 dollars and leaves. The woman wraps back up in the towel and goes back upstairs. When she get to the bathroom, her husband asks, “Who was that?”

“It was Bob the next door neighbor” she replies.

“Great!” the husband says. “Did he say anything about the $800 he owes me?”

Moral of the story: If you share critical information pertaining to the credit and risk with your shareholders in time, you may be in a position to prevent avoidable exposure.


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CORPORATE LESSON 2
A sales rep, an administration clerk, and the manager are walking to lunch when they find an antique oil lamp. They rub it and a Genie comes out. The Genie says, “I’ll give each of you just one wish.”
“Me first! Me first!” says the admin. clerk. “I want to be in the Bahamas, driving a speedboat, without a care in the world.” Poof! She’s gone.
“Me next! Me next!” says the sales rep. “I want to be in Hawaii, relaxing on the beach with my personal masseuse, an endless supply of Pina Coladas and the love of my life.” Poof! He’s gone.
“OK, you’re up,” the Genie says to the manager. The manager says, “I want those two back in the office after lunch.”
Moral of the story: Always let your boss have the first say. (more…)

What you WILL DO vs. NOT DO is what it comes down to

  
  Education
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In trading you MUST take action and control.  It’s not the market makers, or the talking heads, or your neighbor, or any of the experts or people you entrust with your money that are causing your losses or your poor investing performance.  You are making the decisions, directly or indirectly.   Any trading and investing decisions made in your accounts are all DOWNSTREAM from you and your initial decisions, so you can make different ones in the future.

But you must take measurements.  You must have a plan.  You must assess, then make DECISIONS to GET you to your FINANCIAL, HEALTH and RELATIONSHIP goals.

In trading we teach a very simple and effective way to make consistent profits in the markets.  There is a learning curve and much of that curve is you getting to know you.  It’s understanding the psychological aspects of trading profitably with consistency and making those thought process changes that are necessary to get you in a winner’s trading mindset.

For many people this is a challenge.  The actual steps and actions you must take are not laborious or physically draining, they are simple things that need to be done but will go against the natural instinct to just want to go through each day on ‘autopilot’.

And this is why many a trader who is struggling slips into the ‘blame’ or ‘victim’ game.  Being aware of this is important and we are all human and capable of slipping off track……but the key is to catch it early, forgive yourself for it, and then learn and ‘zig zag’ your way back onto the path that will get you to your goals.

14 Words That Are Their Own Opposites

  
  Education
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Here’s an ambiguous sentence for you: “Because of the agency’s oversight, the corporation’s behavior was sanctioned.” Does that mean, ‘Because the agency oversaw the company’s behavior, they imposed a penalty for some transgression’ or does it mean, ‘Because the agency was inattentive, they overlooked the misbehavior and gave it their approval by default’? We’ve stumbled into the looking-glass world of “contronyms”—words that are their own antonyms.

1. Sanction (via French, from Latin sanctio(n-), from sancire ‘ratify,’) can mean ‘give official permission or approval for (an action)’ or conversely, ‘impose a penalty on.’
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2. Oversight is the noun form of two verbs with contrary meanings, “oversee” and “overlook.” “Oversee,” from Old English ofersēon ‘look at from above,’ means ‘supervise’ (medieval Latin for the same thing: super- ‘over’ + videre ‘to see.’) “Overlook” usually means the opposite: ‘to fail to see or observe; to pass over without noticing; to disregard, ignore.’
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3. Left can mean either remaining or departed. If the gentlemen have withdrawn to the drawing room for after-dinner cigars, who’s left? (The gentlemen have left and the ladies are left.)
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4. Dust, along with the next two words, is a noun turned into a verb meaning either to add or to remove the thing in question. Only the context will tell you which it is. When you dust are you applying dust or removing it? It depends whether you’re dusting the crops or the furniture.
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5. Seed can also go either way. If you seed the lawn you add seeds, but if you seed a tomato you remove them.
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6. Stone is another verb to use with caution. You can stone some peaches, but please don’t stone your neighbor (even if he says he likes to get stoned). (more…)

Opinion no value at all

  
  Education
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The market does not care about your opinion and what you think it ought to do.  The market cannot be tamed, placed in a box, or coerced into your way of thinking.  The market does not care about your technical analysis based on past history not does it care about your projections for the future.  The market does not care about this edge or that one.  The market does not care about what I think, about what the most popular flavor of the month guru thinks, or what the latest ANALyst on Blue Channel thinks.  The market does not care about your dreams, goals, and aspirations no matter how well grounded and planned.  The market does not care about the latest economic news.  The market only cares about the present. Remember this the next time you get into a trade believing, hoping, and praying that it HAS TO WORK.  The market does not care if it hurts you, so if you choose to believe, instead of see, what is right there in front of you, then that which you fear the most will come to be. I am not alone when I say this.

“Professional traders make good risk/reward trades and are not concerned with the outcome.   Nor are they under the delusion that they really know where a stock or the market is headed.  Those who will be pushing paper around at some dead end job in the near future are new traders who trade seeking to fulfill some narcissist need to be correct.    Or smarter than the market.  Or your trading neighbor.  Or a friend.  Get over yourself. You have no idea where the market or stocks are really going in six months. All there is are favorable risk/reward trades to make with the outcome uncertain and controlling your risk paramount.”

“This is one of the paradoxes of trading and investing: you need distinct views to put your money at risk, and you need to persist with these views in order to ride winners. At the same time, you can’t become married to these views; you need to quickly revise and even abandon your outlooks in order to limit losses. We can trade and invest for ego needs, and we can trade and invest to make money: over the long haul, we can’t do both. It takes a strong ego to formulate and act upon one’s ideas; an even stronger one to step back from those ideas in the face of non-confirmation.”

“Most people, let’s face it, must be right. They live to have other people know they’re right. They don’t even want success. They don’t even want to win. They don’t want money. They just want to be right. The winners, on the other hand, just want to win.”

“Life happens when you’re making other plans. This is true and no matter how much we visualize future success, set goals and create plans for achieving them, there will be things that happen over the course of the coming year beyond your control that will impede, slow, stop or even reverse your progress. This is to be expected and, if at all possible, planned for. Frequently the difference between success and failure is being able to accept those challenges head on as they occur and keep working toward your goals even when you experience complete failure and hardship. Anyone who has achieved anything worthwhile has failed in doing so, if not many times. But, that’s part of how we grow and get better.”

“The less I cared about whether or not I was wrong, the clearer things became, making it much easier to move in and out of positions, cutting my losses shot to make myself mentally available to take the next opportunity.”

If you enter a trade and the stock doesn’t go the way you predicted, go ahead and take that loss immediately. Don’t sit their like a twit and try to justify a bad trade as you lose more money, dump it. Move on. Forget the need to be right.”

“In reality, the market puts us in a contest with ourselves.  Until we let go of the false ideas of what makes the market tick and simply respond as the market unfolds, we will continue to be punished.”

The degree by which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader.

Amateur & Professional

  
  Education
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The true mark of an amateur trader who is never going to make it in this business is one who continually blames everything but his or herself for the outcome of a bad trade. This includes, but is not limited to, saying things like:
1. The analysts are crooks.
2. The market makers were fishing for stops.
3. I was on the phone and it collapsed on me.
4. My neighbor gave me a bad tip.
5. The message boards caused this one to pump and dump.
6. The specialists are playing games.
The mark of a professional, however, sounds like this: 

•It is my fault. I traded this position too large for my account size.
•It is my fault. I didn’t stick to my own risk parameters.
•It is my fault. I allowed my emotions to dictate my trades.
•It is my fault. I was not disciplined in my trades.
•It is my fault. I knew there was a risk in holding this trade into earnings, and I didn’t fully comprehend them when I took this trade. (more…)

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