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US stocks break out of recent ranges with a big move higher

Dow and S&P up for the 5th time in 6 trading days

The US major indices all broke above recent up and down trading ranges, and above their 50 day MAs as well.  The major pairs are each up over 1.30%. Big day for equities.

The final numbers are showing:

  • S&P index up 38.16 points or 1.30% to 2975.95. The day moving average is down at 2945.21.
  • NASDAQ index up 139.94 points or 1.75% at 8116.82. The 50 day moving average is down at 8047.98.
  • Dow is up 371.93 points or 1.41% at 26727.40. The 50 day moving average is down at 26563.34.
Apart from the UK’s FTSE which fell by -0.55% on the day on the back of a continuation of the upward momentum in the GBP, the other major indices traded above the 0.0% line for all of the day.   The biggest gainer was the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks which rose by 1.86%. The NASDAQ composite index tacked on another 1.75% gain after rising by nearly 2% at the highs.

US stocks close near session highs for the day

Nasdaq up 1.30%.  S&P up 1.08%

The US stocks are closing not far off the highs for the day, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher. Ever sector in the S&P was higher.  Dow closes higher for the 4th time in 5 sesssions.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index closed up 31.51 points or 1.08% at 2937.78
  • The Nasdaq index closed up 102.72 points or 1.30% at 7976.87
  • The Dow index closed up 237.45 points or 0.91% at 26355.42
The % changes and ranges are outlined below. Yesterday, the indexes in US and Europe traded below the 0% line for all of the day. Today, the major indices all traded above the 0.0% line alll day.   All indices opened higher and traded higher.

US stocks opened lower and closed lower

…but off lows for the day

The US major stock indices opened lower and closed lower. The low for the Dow reached -1.61%. For the Nasdaq it reached -1.45%. For the S&P it fell by as much as -1.18%.  However, the indices did recover some of those declines by the close.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P fell -20.02 points or -0.69% at 2906.27
  • The Nasdaq fell -88.72 points or -1.11% at 7874.16
  • The Dow fell -285.26 points or -1.08% at 26118
Below are the % ranges for the North American and European markets for the day.  All major indices are ending lower.

An ugly day for US equities. Major indices down for the week.

Dow falls over 600 points.  Nasdaq down -3.0%

It was an ugly day for the US equities. The Dow fell over 600 points. The Nasdaq is closing down -3%.  UGLY.
The escalation of the trade ward is to blame. Pres. Trump has threatened retaliation for the new China tariffs.  He also continued the criticism of the Fed’s Powell.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P fell -75.84 points or -2.59% at 2847.11
  • The Nasdaq fell -239.62 points or -3.00% at 7751.77
  • The Dow fell -623.34 points or -2.37% at 25628.90
Looking at the % ranges for the major indices below, the major indices in US and Europe all closed at or near the session lows today.
Dow falls over 600 points.  Nasdaq down -3.0%

Looking at the point changes, the Dow was down -745 points at the lows.

The point changes of the major indices
For the week, the major indices are ending the week in the red as well:
  • The S&P fell -1.43%
  • The Nasdaq fell -1.83%
  • The Dow fell -0.99%.
Big losers today:
  • AMD, -7.4%
  • Broadcom, -5.39%
  • NVIDIA, -5.16%
  • Tesla, -4.84%
  • Qualcomm, -4.71%
  • Apple, -4.62%
  • Alibaba, -4.29%
  • Micron, -4.06%
  • Intel, -3.89%
  • American Express, -3.65%

US stock closes higher, but off the higher extreme

Nasdaq leads the indices on the day. Dow lags

The major US stock indices are ending the session with solid gains but off the session highs. The indices opened higher and remained higher on the back of the Trump administration talking up the economy and more Fed criticism (and calls for sharply lower rates ….i.e. Pres. Trump wants 100 bps lower).  The Trump Administration also extended its reprieve on penalties for doing business with Huawei which gave a boost to stocks.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index up 34.97 points or 1.21% at 2923.65. The high reached 2931.00. The low extended to 2913.48.
  • The Nasdaq index is closing up 106.81 points or 1.35% at 8002. 81. The high reached 8026.75. The low reached 7974.25
  • The Dow is closing up 249.78 points or 0.96% at 26135.79. The high reached 26222.32. The low reached 26020.06.

Major US stock indices close with (go on, have a guess!) …. big declines

Ladies and gentlemen, as a special for today only, the four stock codes to watch are

  • U
  • G
  • L
  • and Y
Closing numbers for the big 3 are showing:
  • S&P index down 87.99 points, which is -3.00% at 2,844.06
  • NASDAQ index down 279.54 points or -3.49% at 7,724.53
  • Dow down 772.89 points or -2.92% at 25,712.12
Off lows but not a good day. All three with their biggest daily losses for this year.
The context of the moves today:
  • global growth weaker and weakeneing
  • global trade getting rocked by trade wars
  • The Federal Reserve recently cut and is likely to do so again (a bit of tail and dog, chicken and egg here …. shoose whichever you like)
  • Stock valuations are …. well … high. Some ludicrously so, but they have been for years …
  • what have I missed?

Nasdaq closes at record highs. S&P trades above 3000 for first time, but backs off.

Major indices all closing higher

The major indices in the US are closing higher with the Nasdaq closing at a new record high. The S&P index traded above the 3000 level for the first time ever, but backed off that level. It is still closing higher on the day. The Dow snapped a 3 day losing streak today.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index, +13.44 points or 0.45% at 2993.07. The high reached 3002.98. The low extended to 2984.61
  • The Nasdaq rose 60.80 points or 0.75% at 8202.53. The high reached 8228.598. The low extended to 8160.56
  • The Dow rose 76 points or 0.29% at 26860.20. The high reached 26983.45 The low extended to 26813.11.
Some winners today:
  • Tesla, +3.85%
  • Micron, +3.75%
  • Beyond Meat, +3.61%
  • General Mills, +2.27%
  • AMD, +1.93%
  • Facebook, +1.77%
  • Nvidia, +1.75%
  • Chevron, +1.69%
  • Pfizer,+1.57%
  • Intuit, +1.53%
  • Alphabet, +1.48%
  • Amazon, +1.46%
  • Exxon Mobil,+1.43%
  • Cisco, +1.40%
  • Disney, +1.34%
  • Microsoft, +1.02%
 Some losers today included:
  • QUALCOMM, -2.86%
  • Target, -2.22%
  • Daimler, -1.57%
  • Deere and Company, -1.56%
  • Charles Schwab, -1.56%
  • Wells Fargo, -1.44%
  • Slack, -1.28%
  • Caterpillar, -1.22%
  • Bank of America, -1.16%
  • Morgan Stanley, -1.10%
  • Goldman Sachs, – 0.87%
  • Citigroup, -0.61%
  • PNC financial, -0.58%
  • Home Depot, -0.58%
  • Twitter, -0.52%

S&P closes higher. That means it is another record close.

Major indices rise modestly on the day in up and down session

The S&P is closing higher. Since yesterday was a record high, that means today is a record as well (that analysis is pretty simple).
The Nasdaq remains below it’s record close at 8163.99.  The high today reached 8109.36 – near the closing level for the day.

The final numbers are showing:

  • The S&P index rose 8.68 points or 0.29% at $1413.56
  • The Nasdaq index rose 17.931 points or 0.22% at 8109.09
  • The Dow rose by 69.25 points or 0.26% at 26786.68
Looking at the % changes and % high/low levels, the major US stock are all closing at/near the highs for the day.   European shares (apart from the Portugal PSI20) closed higher as well.
Some winners today:
  • Verizon, +2.61%
  • Cisco, +1.95%
  • McDonald’s, +1.53%
  • Gilead, +1.49%
  • MasterCard, +1.41%
  • Delta Airlines, +1.33%
  • alphabetic, +1.15%
  • Facebook, +1.04%
  • Pfizer, +1.03%
  • Intuit,, 0.81%
  • visa, +0.78%
  • Microsoft, +0.66%
  • Walt Disney, +0.64%
  • Amazon, +0.63%
  • Apple, +0.59%
Some losers on the day include:
  • Nvidia, -2.37%
  • Beyond Meat, -1.88%
  • Chewy, -1.87%
  • Broadcom, -1.67%
  • Chevron, -1.52%
  • Charles Schwab, -1.42%
  • Dow DuPont, -1.31%
  • micron, -1.27%
  • Tesla, -1.15%
  • Exxon Mobil, -1.06%
  • Wells Fargo, -0.96%
  • Bank of America, -0.95%
  • Box, -0.91%
  • QUALCOMM, -0.66%
  • Boeing, -0.62%

 

19 Quotes from the Book “Hedge Fund Market Wizards”

1. As long as no one cares about it, there is no trend. Would you be short Nasdaq in 1999? You can’t be short just because you think fundamentally something is overpriced.

2. All markets look liquid during the bubble (massive uptrend), but it’s the liquidity after the bubble ends that matters.

3. Markets tend to overdiscount the uncertainty related to identified risks. Conversely, markets tend to underdiscount risks that have not yet been expressly identified. Whenever the market is pointing at something and saying this is a risk to be concerned about, in my experience, most of the time, the risk ends up being not as bad as the market anticipated.

4. The low-quality names tend to outperform early in the cycle, and the high-quality names tend to outperform toward the end of the cycle.

5. Traders focus almost entirely on where to enter a trade. In reality, the entry size is often more important than the entry price because if the size is too large, a trader will be more likely to exit a good trade on a meaningless adverse price move. The larger the position, the greater the danger that trading decisions will be driven by fear rather than by judgment and experience.

6. Virtually all traders experience periods when they are out of sync with the markets. When you are in a losing streak, you can’t turn the situation around by trying harder. When trading is going badly, Clark’s advice is to get out of everything and take a holiday. Liquidating positions will allow you to regain objectivity.

7. Staring at the screen all day is counterproductive. He believes that watching every tick will lead to both selling good positions prematurely and overtrading. He advises traders to find something else (preferably productive) to occupy part of their time to avoid the pitfalls of watching the market too closely.

8. When markets are trending up strongly, and there is bad news, the bad news counts for nothing. But if there is a break that reminds people what it is like to lose money in equities, then suddenly the buying is not mindless anymore. People start looking at the fundamentals, and in this case I knew the fundamentals were very ugly indeed.

9. Buying low-beta stocks is a common mistake investors make. Why would you ever want to own boring stocks? If the market goes down 40 percent for macro reasons, they’ll go down 20 percent. Wouldn’t you just rather own cash? And if the market goes up 50 percent, the boring stocks will go up only 10 percent. You have negatively asymmetric returns.

10. If a stock is extremely oversold—say, the RSI is at a three-year low—it will get me to take a closer look at it.8 Normally, if a stock is that brutalized, it means that whatever is killing it is probably already in the price. RSI doesn’t work as an overbought indicator because stocks can remain overbought for a very long time. But a stock being extremely oversold is usually an acute phenomenon that lasts for only a few weeks. (more…)

Week Eight

Lots of back and forth this week, but not much progress in either direction!

SPX-WEEKLY

At the end of the both February and the 8th trading week of the year, here is where we now stand:

  • Dow: -0.74% this week & -0.99% for year

  • S&P 500: -0.42% this week & -0.95% this year

  • Nasdaq: -0.25% this week & -1.36% this year

  • Russell 2000: -0.48% this week & +0.51% this year

It was also a very positive February overall with +2% gains in both the S&P & Dow and +4% gains in the Nasdaq & Russell. In fact, following impressive +3% gains in week seven, the market refused to roll over or give much ground this week.