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Traders Make Decisions based on Probabilities

Most traders take price swings personally. They feel very proud when they make money and love to talk about their profits. When a trade goes against them they feel like punished children and try to keep their losses secret. You can read traders’ emotions on their faces.

Many traders believe that the aim of a market analyst is to forecast future prices. The amateurs in most fields ask for forecasts, while professionals simply manage information and make decisions based on probabilities. Take medicine, for example. A patient is brought to an emergency room with a knife sticking out of his chest – and the anxious family members have only two questions: “Will he survive?” and “when can he go home?” They ask the doctor for a forecast.

But the doctor is not forecasting – he is taking care of problems as they emerge. His first job is to prevent the patient from dying from shock, and so he gives him pain-killers and starts an intravenous drip to replace lost blood. Then he removes the knife and sutures damaged organs. After that, he has to watch against infection. He monitors the trend of a patient’s health and takes measures to prevent complications. He is managing – not forecasting. When a family begs for a forecast, he may give it to them, but its practical value is low. (more…)

HOW BELIEFS DRIVE TRADING

What you believe, consciously or unconsciously, propels your trading in its many directions.  It might be so simple a matter as whether you believe a market is going up or down or nowhere.  Traders have biases that distort their perceptions and effect their actions, and they need to guard against these with various protections and bias detectors.

Other beliefs are more veiled and ubiquitous.  For example, you may consciously intend to make money, but you have a counter impulse that thwarts you due to unconscious beliefs that go against that intention.  Perhaps you unconsciously believe that money is the root of all evil, or that rich people are corrupt, or that there isn’t enough to go around and so you shouldn’t be greedy, or that you should be laying up your treasure in heaven, and not on this earth.  Perhaps on some level you believe you shouldn’t make more money than your parents.

When you want something, you have to really want it and not be ambivalent about it.  It has to be your desire, and not some alien value set by your parents or society.  The flower loves the sun, and stretches to receive its rays.  The plant loves water and digs its roots deep seeking the object of its desire.  If you want to make money trading, you really have to admire money and have good purposes for its use.  If you want to be a master trader, you have to be comfortable with that role, and not see trading as wasteful gambling, or an unworthy profession.

Perhaps you believe that you don’t deserve to make money trading, or that you have to work hard for your rewards.  Maybe you believe that only the big boys win, that the market is stacked against the ordinary trader.  Maybe you believe that it’s impossible to make money in the futures markets or, worse, any market.  Maybe you believe it’s possible to make money trading, but it’s not probable that you can keep your winnings.  All such ideas run in opposition to easy and effective trading.

Just as insidiously you may doubt that your system really works, or that it won’t work this time.  Some traders get superstitious: for example, they believe that they always, or tend to, lose money on Fridays, and so, of course, they do.  When any of their superstitious factors occur, somehow they manage to lose.

Strong emotions also get in the way of winning.  Underlying each emotion is some belief about what is happening.  The interpretations you give events color your reality. Underneath each interpretation is a rock core belief.  “That’s just the way it is.” you say. Such a statement flags a belief. Is it really the way it is?  Do you feel guilty, scared, angry, or depressed after a losing trade?  Perhaps you believe that you shouldn’t lose, that one losing trade implies you can’t trade, that one losing trade portends many more losing trades, or that you’ve jinxed yourself for the rest of the day or week.

Equally or possibly even more important are the positive conscious and unconscious beliefs that you hold about trading and investing.

To begin with, to do anything well, you need to believe that it can be done, that you can do it, and that you deserve to do it.  You’re in trouble if you doubt any of these three.  Your trading is at risk if you don’t firmly believe that money can be made trading, that you can make money trading, and that you deserve to make money trading. (more…)

Fixed Mind Set Traders

The following is for those traders who, with a fixed mind-set, think…

…success is something over there

…trading is about being right, not about making money

…trading is too challenging

…the stock market is fixed with too many obstacles

…trading is about finding the effortless holy grail

…losses are to be avoided at all costs

…others’ success is threatening

Cut your losses short, no questions asked

The majority of unskilled investors stubbornly hold onto their losses when the losses are small and reasonable. They could get out cheaply, but being emotionally involved and human, they keep waiting and hoping until their loss gets much bigger and costs them dearly.”
William O’Neil
The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading… I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don’t cut their losses short.”
Victor Sperandeo
Some people say, “I can’t sell that stock because I’d be taking a loss.” If the stock is below the price you paid for it, selling doesn’t give you a loss; you already have it.
William O’Neil
When I became a winner I went from ‘I figured it out, therefore it can’t be wrong’ to ‘I figured it out, but if I’m wrong, I’m getting the hell out, because I want to save my money and go on to the next trade.’”
Marty Schwartz

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