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Trading Wisdoms

“Never let the fear of striking out get in your way” – Babe Ruth

“If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will have to take the mother of all losses” – Ed Seykota

“Don’t think about what the market is going to do. You have absosutely no control over that. Think about what you are going to do if it gets there.” – William Eckhardt

“I turned from a loser to a winner when I was able to separate my ego needs from making money. When I was able to accept being wrong. Before that, admitting I was wrong was more upsetting than losing money” – Marty Schwartz

“The worst mistake a trader can make is to miss a major profit opportunity. 95% of the profits come from only 5% of the trades” – Richard Dennis

Three stages of trading objectives.

To make money every trade. At first, I did not have the ability to make money every trade.  After I had the ability to make money on most trades I realized it was a horrible objective.  If you want to make money on every trade you are always waiting.  You can never take that much risk and hence the rewards are very small.  I was trading 1′s and 2′s to start, which was the right thing to do.  I would watch my mentor take every trade, no matter how dog shit it was.  As a 1 and 2 lot trader you do not have the same luxury to take dog shit trades because you can only trade one way.  Because of the flexibility he had he could do more and the truth is no matter how good or bad a trade looks we don’t know until we are in it. Getting the most out of a trade is the mark of good trader.  Risk is always related to reward.  There is very little money in making money on every trade.  This type of trading is like making 100k and keeping 80K

To make huge chunks of money.  After I realized that objective did not work for me I shifted to the extreme.  I started to swing for the fences whenever I had the ability.  It is nice when I was right but I struck out a lot too. At this point, I did not respect trading.  I did it because money made me a bad ass.  Well as you know you hard to pay your bills with bad ass.  This type of trading is like making 200k and keeping 80k.

Here are the major risks of having both of those objectives.  The first is making small amounts of money no matter the situation.  Eventually you will get in a hole because statistically you are behind.  Trading every situation the same is bad.  The second objective is trying to make huge amounts of money on every trade.  If the first trades were the best and I stopped it was great.  If the first trades were bad, I was forced to stop.  It made it hard to learn.

Larry Hite Insights and Wisdom

Larry Hite, who was profiled in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards’ series, spoke recently to a group of students. An excerpt:

I believe I had to get into this business because it was simple. There are just a few questions you got to ask yourself. It’s like a checklist that you have to go through. I’m going to go through those questions, discuss them with you, and they can save you a lot of grief. I don’t know that they will make you a lot of money, but mostly they do. I mean, making money in the markets is more simple than it’s not. The trouble is that sometimes you get in the way, or if you’re working for a firm, they get in the way, because there are a lot of social implications. First I’m going to tell you a little about math. I have a guy that works for me, [who] graduated from Wharton, magna cum laude, and we were sitting around one day and we were, I don’t remember what we were doing but we had to figure out the compounded rates of return, and instead of using a calculator we were just looking at the numbers and doing it in our heads. He was young and just out of college, and he kind of felt puffed up about it. You know, it made us feel smart, which is a rare feeling for me. Then I said to him, “You know Michael, the problem with this is anybody can do this with six dollar calculator. You don’t have to be a phi beta kappa. Anybody can do this.”Larry Hite

Later he continued:

One of the great things about the market is, the markets don’t care about you. The market doesn’t care what color you are. The markets don’t care if you are short or tall. They don’t care about anything. They don’t care whether you leave or stay…I met the guy who wrote this best seller now called, Bringing Down the House, it’s about these MIT guys who beat the blackjack tables. And part of the problem, if you’re going to be a blackjack counter is that the casinos don’t like you. They actively don’t like you. And they come and tell you in rather strong things to take your business away. Well, the beautiful thing about the markets, they don’t like you, they don’t dislike you, they just don’t care. They are there everyday. You want to play, you can play. You don’t want to play, don’t play. And you can choose. You sit, there is no penalty. You know, when you stand you know…I don’t know how many of you play baseball…when your at bat if something comes through the strike[zone], if you don’t swing you still get a strike against you. But the markets are a no penalty game. You can stand there and wait. You can go home and wait. It doesn’t matter. And that’s really a terrific thing.Larry Hite

Many people lose sight of the main goal of trading the markets. Instead of worrying about making money, they worry about how much they are trading. Keep Hite’s words close, and don’t forget the main goal.

The market is the calculator

If you are attempting to reach 10 via the calculator, there are many and various ways of getting there:  5+5, 2+8, 15-5, 25 –15, or even  2 + 2 –1 –1 –2 –2 +3 +3 +3 + 3.  When it comes to making money in the market our calculator may want to make it to 10 much quicker than the market does and we may want to add 5 + 5 to get there but be prepared for the market to take its own sweet time adding things up.  If all that matters is getting to 10, then make sure the road you take is paved with minuses along with pluses along the way or all your money will be going to the 5508 (punch this number into your calculator and turn it upside down to see what it spells), which will make the employee a very unhappy and broke individual.

Stock trading is easy as long as we understand how to do the math.

Dont take too much Risk

dontakeriskOne of the most devastating mistakes any trader can make is risking too much of their capital on a single trade. One thing is certain in trading and that is if you lose all your capital you are out of the game. Why risk so much you could be prevented from continuing? There is a saying in
poker than going all-in (risking all your chips) works every time but once. This is true of
trading.
If you risk all your account on every trade it only takes one loser to wipe you out (and no trading method is 100% accurate), so you will be out of the game at some point it is only a question of time. (more…)

Trading Wisdom

 

What I say to the youngling…
Pray for the best, plan for the worst and go about our everyday business

“It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower.” – William O’Neil

“When asked if there was a technique for making money on the stock exchange, Nathan Rothschild said, “There certainly is. I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.” – William O’Neil

“Only a fool holds out for the top dollars,” said Joe Kennedy, one-time wall street speculator and the father of former President John F. Kennedy. The object is to get out while a stock is up, before it has a chance to break. Gerald M. Loeb states, ” Once the price has risen into estimated normal or overvaluation areas, the amount held should be reduced steadily as quotation advance.” (At this point it’s all right to ask yourself, “Why didn’t I sell when it was going up and looked so strong?”)” — William O’Neil

“Another thing to bear in mind is this: Never try to sell at the top. It isn’t wise. Sell after a reaction if there is no rally.” – Jesse Livermore

Trading Psychology

TRADING-PSYCHOLOGYIf any trade makes you feel like “kicking yourself,” then you’re likely trading for emotional satisfaction and that’s a problem. In other words, if every trade you make has the purpose of trying to make you feel good, prove you are right, feed your ego, eliminate pain from a prior mistake you refused to deal with early on, or something other than just making money for you, you need to learn how to put trading in the proper frame of mind if you desire to become a better trader and investor.

Cut your losses and let your winners ride

This quote is the perfect corollary to Livermore’s. Just as he preached “sitting”, letting your winners ride is the same idea. If you have on a position and it’s working, let it make you money. Don’t cut it prematurely for the sake of booking a small profit. Don’t get scared and exit on the first reaction, when all of your trading rules dictate staying in. If it’s a winner, and it’s working, then let it ride. Winners are good—embrace them.

The important flip side is how to treat losing trades. The first lesson is that losers have to be cut at some point.  Otherwise, a losing trade can keep eating away at your P&L, undoing the profits from any winning positions. If you cut losses at a pre-defined level, then they stop—and presumably your wins can be larger than your losses.

The math behind this is compelling. If you assume that your average winner make 1.6x what your average loser loses, then you only need to be right 40% of the time in order to make money consistently. By keeping the leash short on your losses, then you can let the math of statistical expectation work in your favor. Cut losses and let your winners ride.

There is another aspect to this. A loser isn’t just a trade where you get stopped out at a pre-defined loss limit. Imagine a trade that isn’t making money and has just been languishing on your books—this is also a loser. Cut it, free up financial and mental capital  and move on.

Day Trading Starting Out

1• Don’t Mixing up Apples and Oranges
2• Don’t’ Winning 7 trades and LOSING ALL Gains on the Next 3 trades
3• When PREMISES FAIL, EXIT TRADE
4• 70% Consistency = 7 out of 10 trades
5• Be BORED = APATHY = EMOTIONAL DETACHMENT
6• DON’T WORRY ABOUT MAKING MONEY
7• Pauses in your Trading. Putting oneself into a position where defeat is impossible.
8• Determine Your STYLE
9• Stops based on type of Trade and Premises
10• Expect to make mistakes
12• Volume is KEY
13• Those who can recognize PATTERNS and Keep an OPEN Mind Will Succeed Faster – The ability to ADAPT – The Ability to REACT – The Ability to Admit Defeat Cut Losses Fast

How would you classify trading errors?

TRADINGERROR

  • Improper analysis, categorized as inadequate preparation or incorrect interpretation
  • Improper entry (early or out of sync with market and sector action)
  • Improper execution (inappropriate position size, failure to adhere to proper trading principles, e.g. momentum resumption)
  • Failed exit, e.g. profit turns into a loss, failure to recognize ‘windfalls’, etc.

So what ‘rules’ must we have.

  1. Identify your edge (specific market, specific techniques)…if making money on the short (long) side isn’t working, why persist at that which isn’t making it happen? Strive to do more of what is working and less of what is not.
  2. Trade with the market. Intraday ‘tells’ are huge. If breadth is negative and the dollar is positive, going long equities is going to be tough sledding.
  3. See the market as it is. If we’re wrong, having missed the exit ramp, are we going to stay on the highway into the next state, or get off?
  4. Understand the market structure. Is the market trending, detrending, breaking out of consolidation, bouncing off support or resistance, consolidating?
  5. Know how volatility is behaving…rising, falling, at extremes.
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