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Trading Rules: Strategies For Success

tradingrulesforsuccess
1. Divide your trading capital into ten equal risk segments
2. Use a two-step order process
3. Don’t overtrade
4. Never let a profit turn into a loss
5. Trade with the trend
6. If you don’t know what’s going on, don’t do anything
7. Tips don’t make you any money
8. Use the right order to get into the markets
9. Don’t be whimsical about closing out your trades
10. Withdraw a portion of your profits
11. Don’t buy a stock only to obtain a dividend
12. Don’t average your losses
13. Take big profits and small losses
14. Go for the long pull as an outside speculator
15. Sell shorts as often as you go long
16. Don’t buy something because it is low priced
17. Pyramid correctly, if at all
18. Decrease your trading after a series of successes
19. Don’t formulate new opinions during market hours
20. Don’t follow the crowd – they are usually wrong
21. Don’t watch or trade too many markets at once
22. Buy the rumor, sell the fact
23. Take windfall profits when you get them
24. Keep charts current
25. Preserve your capital
26. Nothing new ever occurs in the markets
27. Money cannot be made every day from the markets
28. Back your opinions with cash when they are confirmed by market action
29. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are
30. A good trade is profitable right from the start
31. As long as a market is acting right, don’t rush to take profits
32. Never permit speculative ventures to turn into investments
33. Don’t try to predetermine your profits
34. Never buy a stock because it has a big decline from its previous high, nor sell a stock because it is high priced
35. Become a buyer as soon as a stock makes new highs after a normal reaction
36. The human side of every person is the greatest enemy to successful trading
37. Ban wishful thinking in the markets
38. Big movements take time to develop
39. Don’t be too curious about the reasons behind the moves
40. Look for reasonable profits
41. If you can’t make money trading the leading issues, you aren’t going to make it trading the overall markets
42. Leaders of today may not be the leaders of tomorrow
43. Trade the active stocks and futures
44. Avoid discretionary accounts and partnership trading accounts
45. Bear markets have no supports and bull markets have no resistance
46. The smarter you are, the longer it takes
47. It is harder to get out of a trade than to get into one
48. Don’t talk about what you’re doing in the markets
49. When time is up, markets must reverse
50. Control what you can, manage what you cannot

Great Expectations

The best things in life are unexpected – because there were no expectations – ELI KHAMAROV 

Great_expectations

 Legendary trader Roy Longstreet was once asked by Intermarket Magazine, “Why have you succeeded in trading to such a degree and why do most traders fail?”  Roy answered “Many major problems people have in trading are caused by their expectations – of where the market is headed, how much money will they make from this trade, etc. One thing I learned that has helped me: it is wrong for a person to enter any market with any preconceived expectations.” 

He went on to say, “I know that there’s always the possibility that what I don’t want to happen, will happen. The market will not act in accord with my expectations. You have to ask yourself the question, how must you function to survive? The answer is to be able to accept a loss. Not having expectations makes it a little easier to accept a loss. You must realize that losing is part of soul growth, so to speak. It’s necessary. It’s hard to accept, but necessary.” 

This problem of attaching ourselves to an outcome is not exclusive to trading, but is a problem in investing in general. Expectations of higher and higher returns have become commonplace in an environment of lower opportunity to do so. Few people consider the fact that when they invest today, the riskless marketplace pays close to zero.  For example, the one month Treasury Bill pays $40 for a $100,000 investment, and inflation is running around -1.3%, based on the Consumer Price Index.  (more…)

Trading Wisdom – Andrew Gordon

Legendary stock trader Jesse Livermore had it right: The big money is in the big moves … and the trick to making the big money is knowing how to sit tight and ride the trend for all it’s worth. As obvious as that may seem, many investors have trouble doing it.

They are, as cognitive psychologists like Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky would say, “risk-averse.” The pain they experience in losing money is far greater than the pleasure they experience in making it. As a result, these investors typically sell their investments too soon for fear of incurring a real or even a paper loss.

To profit the most from an investment, you need to be able to wait long enough for it to achieve its full potential. So if you’re “risk-averse” by nature, it might be a good idea for you to avoid paying too much attention to the news. If you’re watching television and the nightly business report comes on, change the channel. Set aside the business section of the paper to read on a rainy day. Ignore cocktail chatter about investing. That way, you’re more likely to stick to your trading plan instead of letting your emotions overpower your better judgment. 

4 Ways Your Brain Is Making You Lose Money

brainYour brain doesn’t like to lose

Loss aversion, or the reluctance to accept a loss, can be deadly.  For example, one of your investments may be down 20% for good reason.  The best decision may be to just book the loss and move on.  However, you can’t help but think that the stock might comeback.

This latter thinking is dangerous because it often results in you increasing your position in the money losing investment.  This behavior is similar to the gambler who makes a series of larger bets in hopes of breaking even.

Your brain remembers everything.

How you trade in the future is often affected by the outcomes of your previous trades.  For example, you may have sold a stock at a 20% gain, only to watch the stock continue to rise after your sale.  And you think to yourself, “If only I had waited.”  Or perhaps one of your investments fall in value, and you dwell on the time when you could’ve sold it while in the money.  These all lead to unpleasant feelings of regret. 

Regret minimization occurs when you avoid investing altogether or invests conservatively because you don’t want to feel that regret. (more…)

Bernard Baruch:Trading Legend

Baruch was born in 1870 in South Carolina. He was a great student of finance, reading everything he could find about the subject, always trying to learn more. Baruch found out the education process takes time, especially when it comes to trading the stock market.

Early on, Baruch made many of the same mistakes that most traders make. Ultimately, after much dedication to learning proper trading principles, he amassed a huge fortune in the markets. Because of his intellectual reputation, he even held appointive positions in four presidential administrations, and served as an advisor to six different presidents.

In his book titled “My Own Story”, Baruch gives us some rules or guidelines on how to invest or speculate wisely.

1. Don’t speculate unless you can make it a full-time job.

2. Beware of barbers, beauticians, waiters-of anyone-bringing gifts of “inside” information or “tips”.

3. Before you buy a security, find out everything you can about the company, its management and competitors, its earnings and possibilities for growth.

4. Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. This can’t be done-except by liars.

5. Learn how to take your losses quickly and cleanly. Don’t expect to be right all the time. If you have made a mistake, cut your losses as quickly as possible.

6. Don’t buy too many different securities. Better to have only a few investments which can be watched.

7. Make a periodic reappraisal of all your investments to see whether changing developments have altered their prospects.

8. Study your tax position to know when you can sell to greatest advantage.

9. Always keep a good part of your capital in a cash reserve. Never invest all your funds.

10. Don’t try to be a jack of all investments. Stick to the field you know best.

Six Rules of Michael Steinhardt

Michael Steinhardt was one of the most successful hedge fund managers of all time. A dollar invested with Steinhardt Partners LP in 1967 was worth $481 when Steinhardt retired in 1995.

The following six rules were pulled out from a speech he gave:

1. Make all your mistakes early in life: The more tough lessons you learn early on, the fewer (bigger) errors you make later. A common mistake of all young investors is to be too trusting with brokers, analysts, and newsletters who are trying to sell you something.

2. Always make your living doing something you enjoy: Devote your full intensity for success over the long-term.

3. Be intellectually competitive: Do constant research on subjects that make you money. Plow through the data so as to be able to sense a major change coming in the macro situation.

4. Make good decisions even with incomplete information: Investors never have all the data they need before they put their money at risk. Investing is all about decision-making with imperfect information. You will never have all the info you need. What matters is what you do with the information you have. Do your homework and focus on the facts that matter most in any investing situation. (more…)

Time Tested Rules (Part 1)

timetestedrulesOptimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.
Take a trading break. A break will give you a detached view of the market and a fresh look at yourself and the way you want to trade for the next several weeks.
It is a safe bet that the money lost by (short term) speculation is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by those who let their investments “ride”. Long term investors are the biggest gamblers as after they make a trade they often times stay with it and end up losing it all. The intelligent trader will . By acting promptly—hold losses to a minimum.
People who buy headlines eventually end up selling newspapers. (more…)

Can A Trader be a do-gooder?

It occurs to me that the only way in which a trader can become more than a completely selfish, self-enriching, narcissistic person is to trade well enough so that you can manage other people’s money and thus saving these investors from crooks and charlatans (provided you are convinced you are not a crook and charlatan yourself).

Other traders have advanced other arguments in favor of trading. But I am not convinced by them.

They say that we provide liquidity to other long-term investors who may need to liquidate their investments. But then, this applies only to mean-reversal strategies. Momentum strategies take away liquidity from the market, and in some cases exacerbating price bubbles. Certainly not something your grandma would approve.

Others argue that momentum strategies help disseminate information about companies through quick price movements. But can’t we just watch Blue Channels? Do we really need some devious insiders to convey that information to the rest of us through price movements?

No, I think that independent trading should serve only one purpose (besides short-term self-sustenance): as training and preparation to become a fund manager. Once you graduated from independent trading, you then enter into the grand contest among all fund managers to see who can best serve and protect investors’ assets, (and be rewarded according to your standing in this contest.)

I know, this is the idealistic way to look at things. Serving and protecting seem to be what policemen should be doing, not traders. But as in quantitative trading, I think it helps one becomes more successful in one’s activities by having a simple guiding principle or model. And it doesn’t hurt that in this case, the principle would also be conscience-nourishing!

3 Biases That Affect Your Trading

1) Gambler’s fallacy bias

People tend to believe that after a string of losses, a win is going to come next. Take for example that you are playing a game of coin tossing with a capital of $1000. You lost 3 bets in a row on heads and cost you $100 each bet. What will you bet next and how much would you stake?

It is likely you will continue to bet on heads and with a higher stake, say $300. You do not ‘believe’ that it can be tails consistently. People fail to realize coin tossing is random and past results do not affect future outcomes.

Traders must treat each trade independently and not be affected by past results. It is important that your trading system tells you how much to stake your capital which is also known as position sizing, so that the risk-reward ratio will be optimal.

2) Limit profits and enlarge losses bias

People tend to limit their profits and give more room to losses. Nobody likes the feeling of losing. Most investors tend to hold on to losses and hope their investments will turn around soon, and they will be happy if their holdings break even. However, chances are that they will amount to greater losses. On the other hand, if they are winning, most investors tend to take profits early as they fear their profits will be wiped out soon. Thereafter, they regretted that they didn’t hold a little longer (sounds familiar?).

One of the most important principle in trading is contrary to what most investors do – Traders have to LIMIT LOSSES and let PROFITS RUN. Losses are part and parcel of trading and hence, it is crucial to protect the capital from depleting too much – live to fight another day is the mantra for all traders. Large profits are thus required to cover the small losses – so do not limit profit runs.

3) I am right bias

Humans are egoistic in nature and we want to prove that we are right. High accuracy is not important in trading but making more money when you are right is. Remember what George Soros said, “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”

3 Biases That Affect Your Trading

Van K. Tharp mentioned there are 3 biases that will affect one’s trading:

1) Gambler’s fallacy bias

People tend to believe that after a string of losses, a win is going to come next. Take for example that you are playing a game of coin tossing with a capital of $1000. You lost 3 bets in a row on heads and cost you $100 each bet. What will you bet next and how much would you stake?

It is likely you will continue to bet on heads and with a higher stake, say $300. You do not ‘believe’ that it can be tails consistently. People fail to realize coin tossing is random and past results do not affect future outcomes.

Traders must treat each trade independently and not be affected by past results. It is important that your trading system tells you how much to stake your capital which is also known as position sizing, so that the risk-reward ratio will be optimal.

2) Limit profits and enlarge losses bias

People tend to limit their profits and give more room to losses. Nobody likes the feeling of losing. Most investors tend to hold on to losses and hope their investments will turn around soon, and they will be happy if their holdings break even. However, chances are that they will amount to greater losses. On the other hand, if they are winning, most investors tend to take profits early as they fear their profits will be wiped out soon. Thereafter, they regretted that they didn’t hold a little longer (sounds familiar?). (more…)