Archives of “intrinsic value” tag

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Ben Bernanke bails out Time Magazine

  
Analysis, Economy, Education, LINKS, US Market
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timemagazinegreenspan

WASHINGTON – After naming Ben Bernanke Person of the Year for saving us from the crisis that he helped create, Time magazine sales have “dropped off a cliff,” according to one Time magazine employee, speaking on condition of anonymity.

As a result of the drop-off in demand, Time magazine is now going through a liquidity crisis. Because of this situation, Ben Bernanke has decided to provide Time magazine with the necessary liquidity to stave off bankruptcy. The Fed has added millions of editions of Time to its balance sheet.

“From what we can tell, these Time magazines – especially the edition with Greenspan on the cover – have more intrinsic value than do Treasuries. There is actually stuff to read in them. So our balance sheet isn’t impaired in any way by paying cover-price for these issues,” said Fed Chairman Bernanke. “We also felt it would be best for the economy to take these editions out of circulation, and we are asking the American people to sell their Greenspan editions to the FOMC.”

The preliminary numbers are showing that the Fed, through Open Market Operations, has monetized at least 500,000 copies of the edition with Greenspan on the cover – the last time a Fed Chairman appeared on the cover of the prestigious magazine.

“If necessary, the Fed has the tools it needs to remove any excess liquidity from the markets,” said Bernanke. “We could start by selling off the Jim Bunning baseball cards that we have on our balance sheet.”

BUFFETT'S ANNUAL LETTER IS OUT: Here Are The Key Points!

  
Analysis, Education
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Here’s the link to this year’s letter.  Feel free to point out anything you might like to discuss or anything you think might be worthy of a post.

Here are the key points:

  • For just the 9th time, Berkshire’s book value rose less than the S&P 500. Buffett calls the year subpar.
  • Berkshire pursued a couple of “elephants” but mostly came up empty, until the recent big Heinz deal.
  • Buffett explains his five guidelines for increasing shareholder value: “In summary, Charlie and I hope to build per-share intrinsic value by (1) improving the earning power of our many subsidiaries; (2) further increasing their earnings through bolt-on acquisitions; (3) participating in the growth of our investees; (4) repurchasing Berkshire shares when they are available at a meaningful discount from intrinsic value; and (5) making an occasional large acquisition. We will also try to maximize results for you by rarely, if ever, issuing Berkshire shares.”
  • Berkshire’s five biggest non-insurance companies (BNSF, Iscar, Lubrizol, Marmon Group and MidAmerican Energy) broke the goal of having over $10 billion in income this year.
  • Berkshire’s new portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler both had portfolios that beat the S&P 500 in 2012.
  • Both Combs and Weschler now have portfolios of $5 billion to invest.
  • Buffett expects Berkshire to buy more Coca-Cola, American Express, Wells Fargo and IBM in the future.
  • CEOs who whine about “uncertainty” are silly (see more here)
  • Contrary to Buffett’s expectations, the “float” from Berkshire’s insurance businesses continues to grow. He doesn’t expect it to continue, but it grew another $2.5 billion last year. (more…)

10 Ways to Move From Peril to Profits

  
  Education
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  1. The first question to ask in any option trade is how much of my capital could I lose in the worst case scenario not how much can I make.
  2. Long options are tools that can be used to create asymmetric trades with a built in downside and unlimited upside.
  3. Short options should only be sold when the probabilities are deeply in your favor that they will expire worthless, also a small hedge can pay for itself in the long run.
  4. Understand that in long options you have to overcome the time priced into the premium to be profitable even if you are right on the direction of the move.
  5. Long  weekly deep-in-the-money options can be used like stock with much less out lay of capital.
  6. The reason that deeper in the money options have so little time and volatility priced in is becasue you are ensuring someones profits in that stock. That is where the risk is:intrinsic value, and that risk is on the buyer.
  7. When you buy out-of-the-money options understand that you must be right about direction, time period of move, and amount of move to make money. Also understand this is already priced in.
  8. When trading a high volatility event that price move will be priced into the option, after the event the option price will remove that volatility value and the option value will collapse. You can only make money through those events with options if the increase in intrinsic value increases enough to replace the vega value that comes out.
  9. Only trade in options with high volume so you do not lose a large amount of money on the bid/ask spread when entering and exiting trades.
  10. When used correctly options can be tools for managing risk, used incorrectly they can blow up your account. I suggest never risking more than 1% of your trading capital on any one option trade.

Index Investing Unmasked: 96% Of Stocks Are Garbage

  
Analysis, Education
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Warren Buffett released his annual letter over the weekend, in which he praised Jack Bogle as his “hero” for promoting index investing. The irony is that investors would have been better off buying Berkshire shares. Over the last 10 years, Berkshire stock is up 139% while the S&P 500 is up 71%. The real question is why Buffett just doesn’t tout his own stock rather than promote index investing. He tries to explain himself:

 “Charlie and I prefer to see Berkshire shares sell in a fairly narrow range around intrinsic value, neither wishing them to sell at an unwarranted high price – it’s no fun having owners who are disappointed with their purchases – nor one too low.”

Buffett is doing something every skilled salesman does: managing expectations. Buffett’s own performance is compared against the S&P 500, and what better way to win that game than by putting a floor under the Berkshire price with the promise of share buybacks and then putting a ceiling on the stock by promoting index investing? The real secret is Buffett is talking his book by not talking it: Rather than tell investors to buy Berkshire at any price, he tells people to invest passively through an index, which leads to the very market inefficiencies that he profits from.

The great appeal of index investing is its low fees, but like buying a cheap pair of shoes that falls apart after 6 months, investors will find that index investing is the most expensive thing they ever did. Vanguard promotes its rock bottom expense ratios, but what is not published is market impact costs that are incurred when the fund rebalances. Since these rebalances are often announced ahead of time, they are extremely vulnerable to front running. Christophe Bernard, PhD Senior Scientist at Winton Capital Management, estimates that front running costs index investors 0.20% per year. That’s 4 times the official expense ratio of Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF.

In his latest research, finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder discovered that 58% of stocks don’t even outperform a Treasury bill. This study was based on 26,000 stocks from 1926 to 2015. Just 4% of stocks accounted for all of the $31.8 trillion in gains during this period. That means 96% of stocks were complete garbage. Even worse, shares of unprofitable companies outperform their profitable counterparts, which is why you have a marketplace that is dominated by Twitters and Teslas.

Index investing means buying a box of garbage stocks sprinkled with a few hope and glamour stocks whose price gains are solely a result of underperforming fund managers grasping for quarterly bonuses and retail investors juicing up their portfolios in a doomed attempt to catch up on their retirement targets.

While mom and pop buy a Vanguard index with their $500,000 and get front run all day by proprietary traders, the capitalist televangelist Warren Buffett will continue to actively trade billions while preaching the miracle of buy and hold investing.

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