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Global trade uncertainties 10 times higher than previous peak levels: IMF

Concerns about global trade have reached nearly 10 times the peaks seen in the previous two decades, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

“Globally, the trade policy uncertainty index is rising sharply, having been stable at low levels for about 20 years,” it said in a blogpost.

“The World Trade Uncertainty index jumped in the past year 10-fold from previously recorded highs as the US-China trade war escalated,” said the blogpost written by Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom and Davide Furceri.

The Americas and the Asia Pacific are most affected by concerns about the US-China trade war while Africa is least affected, the IMF said in a new index aimed at quantifying trade uncertainty.

The index is based on reports from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) dating back to 1996 and borrows from the methodology used in the IMF’s own World Uncertainty Index.

To calculate the new gauge, IMF researchers counted how often the word ‘uncertainty’ appears in the EIU reports near terms such as ‘tariffs,’ ‘protectionism’ or ‘trade.’ (more…)

IMF gives China cover to weaken the yuan further

IMF finds no fault with yuan weakness

IMF finds no fault with yuan weakness
The IMF is recommending that Beijing allow the yuan to fall further if the trade war escalates, according to the South China Morning Post.
They cited comments from Alfred Schipke, who is the IMF’s senior resident representative to China. He spoke in Beijing yesterday.

“If there is a shock, the exchange rate ought to be part of the adjustment and should be allowed to depreciate. That is what exchange rates are for,” Schipke said, adding that the exchange rate should be decided by market forces. “In principle let the market decide,” he said.

China has been leaning against yuan weakness by setting the mid-point at levels below the market. The currency has fallen about 4% this month.

Trump is also tweeting about the economy:

TweetThe latest GDP report showed growth at a 2.0% annualized pace.

IMF says monetary easing unlikely to make a lasting improvement in trade balance

Exchange rates can’t do it all

The IMF is out with a blog post about the effectiveness of using monetary policy to weaken a currency and boost exports.
“One should not put too much stock in the view that easing monetary policy can weaken a country’s currency enough to bring a lasting improvement in its trade balance,” the authors write.
They estimate that a 10% decline in a country’s currency improves the trade balance by about 0.3% of GDP in the near-term, largely via a contraction in imports. Over three years the effect is larger and hits an average of 1.2% of GDP.
One thing they highlight is that much international trade is done in US dollars. This slows and limits the effects of weakening the currency.

Greece bailout package 'agreed by Germany and France'

The deal will also involve the International Monetary Fund and is expected to include 22 billion euros of funding for Greece, sources said.

It is now up to European Union President Herman Van Rompuy to call a summit of eurozone leaders possibly later tonight to consider the French-German deal, after talks attended by all 27 European Union heads of state.

The meeting would ask Van Rompuy to draw up detailed plans “before year end to show all the options possible” for bailing out eurozone nations in future. That would include preventive measures and sanctions, a diplomat said.

Spanish government spokeswoman Cristina Gallach said she could not confirm any deal but that Spain – which heads most European Union talks because it holds the EU’s rotating presidency – was “hopeful” that a solution could be found at the talks for Greece’s debt woes.

IMF WARNING: Britain could follow Greece?

There were fears that Britain could follow Greece into a financial crisis after a global finance chief warned of economic “contagion” spreading across Europe.

The head of the International Monetary Fund urged politicians to finalise a bail-out for the debt-laden Mediterranean country, saying that every day lost in resolving the problems risked spreading the impact “far away”.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s comments came amid more evidence of Europe’s mounting fiscal problems after Spain’s debt was downgraded – a move recently applied to its under-pressure neighbour Portugal as well as Greece.

On Wednesday, shadow chancellor George Osborne raised the spectre of the crisis affecting the public finances of the UK, which faces dealing with its own £163 billion mountain of public borrowing. (more…)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Needs Money

 International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a statement that it would begin selling large holdings of its gold reserves

IMF: Says will shortly begin ‘on market sales’ for remaining 191 tons of gold; To start selling up to $7B of gold to market

– Gold will be sold in a “phased manner” to avoid disruptions to gold market

– On market sales does not preclude sales of gold to interested central banks.
– Off-market sales would reduce amount of gold to be sold on the market.

So why is the IMF selling its gold? Is it that the monetary fund is looking ahead to more countries needing cash bailouts? Or does the IMF view gold as a worthless commodity in the future?

The announcement did impact the gold price as reflected on this gold chart which shows the reaction.

IMF-GOLD SELLING

Greece – About to Hit the Panic Button?

Well it would appear that all the talk of the European Union and the IMF standing at the ready did not calm the markets when it was being discussed over the past month. It was hoped that the markets would be calmed if they knew that Greece had support from its neighbors.

That was Plan A, now it is time for Plan B, or C, D, E…

The Greek government’s cost of borrowing has hit a new high as talks on a joint eurozone and International Monetary Fund (IMF) rescue plan begin.

The interest rate on 10-year government bonds hit 8.3% – the highest since the euro was introduced.

Rates rose as it became clear that talks over the aid package may not be finished until days before a multi-billion-euro loan is due for repayment.

Investors are becoming more convinced that Greece will need to be rescued.

Greece’s finance ministry said the talks with the European Commission and the IMF would take about two weeks, with a joint text issued on about 15 May. […] (BBC)

It would appear that Greece is about to hit the button

Wednesday, April 21, 2010 1:27:13 PM
Greece Fin Min: Will make decision on whether or not to trigger the aid mechanism soon – Notes that the IMF will have discussions over the competitiveness of the country. No further austerity measures this year are likely.

George Soros Warns Washington To "Mend Relations With China" Or Face World War 3

A Partnership with China to Avoid World War (via The New York Review of Books)

International cooperation is in decline both in the political and financial spheres. The UN has failed to address any of the major conflicts since the end of the cold war; the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference left a sour aftertaste; the World Trade Organization hasn’t concluded a major trade round since 1994. The International Monetary Fund’s legitimacy is increasingly questioned because of its outdated governance, and the G20, which emerged during the financial crisis of 2008 as a potentially powerful instrument of international cooperation, seems to have lost its way. In all areas, national, sectarian, business, and other special interests take precedence over the common interest. This trend has now reached a point where instead of a global order we have to speak of global disorder.

In the political sphere local conflicts fester and multiply. Taken individually these conflicts could possibly be solved but they tend to be interconnected and the losers in one conflict tend to become the spoilers in others. For instance, the Syrian crisis deteriorated when Putin’s Russia and the Iranian government came to Bashar al-Assad’s rescue, each for its own reasons. Saudi Arabia provided the seed money for ISIS and Iran instigated the Houthi rebellion in Yemen to retaliate against Saudi Arabia. Bibi Netanyahu tried to turn the US Congress against the nuclear treaty the US was negotiating with Iran. There are just too many conflicts for international public opinion to exert a positive influence.

In the financial sphere the Bretton Woods institutions—the IMF and the World Bank—have lost their monopoly position. Under Chinese leadership, a parallel set of institutions is emerging. Will they be in conflict or will they find a way to cooperate? Since the financial and the political spheres are also interconnected, the future course of history will greatly depend on how China tackles its economic transition from investment and export-led growth to greater dependence on domestic demand, and how the US reacts to it. A strategic partnership between the US and China could prevent the evolution of two power blocks that may be drawn into military conflict. (more…)

Rogoff Sees Sovereign Defaults

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Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — Ballooning debt is likely to force several countries to default and the U.S. to cut spending, according to Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff, who in 2008 predicted the failure of big American banks.

Following banking crises, “we usually see a bunch of sovereign defaults, say in a few years,” Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said at a forum in Tokyo yesterday. “I predict we will again.”

The U.S. is likely to tighten monetary policy before cutting government spending, sending “shockwaves” through financial markets, Rogoff said in an interview after the speech. Fiscal policy won’t be curbed until soaring bond yields trigger “very painful” tax increases and spending cuts, he said.

Global scrutiny of sovereign debt has risen after budget shortfalls of countries including Greece swelled in the wake of the worst global financial meltdown since the 1930s. The U.S. is facing an unprecedented $1.6 trillion budget deficit in the year ending Sept. 30, the government has forecast.

“Most countries have reached a point where it would be much wiser to phase out fiscal stimulus,” said Rogoff, who co- wrote a history of financial crises published in 2009. It would be better “to keep monetary policy soft and start gradually tightening fiscal policy even if it meant some inflation.”

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Great NEWS :IMF to provide give €10 Billion to Greece

The International Monetary Fund is looking at raising its share of Greece’s financial rescue package by €10bn ($13.2bn) amid fears that the planned €45bn bail-out will fail to prevent the country’s debt crisis from spiralling out of control.

Senior bankers and officials in Washington and Athens told the Financial Times that the IMF was in talks to increase its aid contribution by €10bn. The fund could make that sum available under a planned three-year loan, according to an Athens-based analyst familiar with the talks.

Investors and policy specialists said that expectations of the size of the three-year package in Washington policy circles had increased to at least €70bn. The EU has so far proposed to provide €30bn and the IMF €15bn. “The fund’s current ceiling for Greece is €25bn and the release of the extra amount is under discussion,” the analyst said. The IMF declined to comment on the size of the package.

Dear Readers & Traders ,We are again first in India to give this NEWS.And in afternoon or late by evening once this NEWS will be out.Then watch huge short covering across the Globe.

Technically Yours

ASR Team

Baroda ,India