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If you trading ,then read this

Below, we share a presentation from Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron, Measuring Risk: Extracting Market Sentiment from the Interest Rate Markets, in which the credit strategist provides a much more detailed framework of what critical credit signals are and how to interpret them. We recommend that all those still trading, either with their own, or other people’s money, familiarize themselves with this 27-page overview.

(Instead of Watching TV -Cricket Match -Movies ,Traders just read this -)

 

 


Ray Dalio’s Long-Term Debt Cycle Charts

The following speech was delivered by Ray Dalio of Bridgewater at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar on Wednesday, October 5, 2016.

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It is both an honor and a very special opportunity for me to be able to address such a large and esteemed group of central bankers at such an interesting time for central bankers. I especially want to thank President Dudley and Vice President Schetzel for inviting me to forthrightly share my perspective as an investor and my unconventional template that I believe sheds some light on the very unconventional circumstances that we face.

It is no longer controversial to say that:

• …this isn’t a normal business cycle and we are likely in an environment of abnormally slow growth

• …the current tools of monetary policy will be a lot less effective going forward

• …the risks are asymmetric to the downside

• …investment returns will be very low going forward, and (more…)

How to Spot a Market Top

This is via an article in the Wall Street Journal title: How to Spot a Market Top

It begins generically enough with the sort of stuff you hear all the time:
  • A da Vinci sells for $450 million
  • one bitcoin is worth $7,700
  • 99-year-old Austria issues a 100-year bond at an interest rate of 2.1%
  • Clearly there is too much money in the world. That isn’t new, but how long can it last?
  • With central banks scaling back stimulus, investments that appear attractive when interest rates are near, or below, zero suddenly look silly.
Then, some, errr … wisdom:
  • The end may come soon, or the current investing nirvana could go on.
K, thanks.
But, then it gets better:…  walks through the risks and likely scenarios for markets in the coming months. It is ungated (I think), co check it out while we await Europe/UK action:

Banker got caught looking at nude women on national tv

The announcement that the Reserve Bank had put interest rate rises on hold attracted even more attention during a live Seven News broadcast yesterday when a Macquarie Bank staffer was seen viewing pictures of nude women on his computer.

While broker Martin Lakos was updating Seven newsreader Chris Bath on the rates news, a colleague in the background was seen opening three pictures on his screen.

The bank released a statement last night, saying: “Macquarie has strict policies in place surrounding the use of technology and the issue arising from today’s live cross on Seven News is being dealt with internally.”

Clever take on how fraudulent the banking system and Wall Street was and still is 15 Lessons from the Movie The Big Short

Embedded image permalink15 Trading Lessons from the The Big Short

  1. It’s possible to be right about a market move, but your timing can be too early.
  2. If you trade too big, you can lose all your capital before you have the time to be proven right.
  3. AAA agency ratings are more to make their clients who sell bonds happy than to protect investors.
  4. In markets that are not liquid, you can get in trouble by being right but your assets not reflecting it with a big move.
  5. When there is no risk of ruin to bankers and mortgage brokers they will risk the ruin of their companies and the world economy in pursuit of quick and easy money.
  6. When there is little ‘skin in the game’ bankers and mortgage brokers take risks that they are not held accountable for.
  7. Macro traders have to be able to take a lot of heat and losses on their positions before they are right.
  8. Hedge fund investors want consistent returns on their money and not drawdowns. They are quick to pull their money out during a losing streak.
  9. You want to have a large risk/reward ratio on your trades. Betting $1 for a chance to make $20 is a good trade.
  10. There is a lot of fraud in the financial world.
  11. Financial fraud is almost never prosecuted in the banking world.
  12. The SEC has little oversight in the banking industry.
  13. Bailouts can cause you to lose on a trade you would have made money on.
  14. You have to take your profits off the table while they are available.
  15. “Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” – Mark Twain