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Is Trading All About Luck? – #AnirudhSethi

  
Analysis, Education
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Luck of the Draw? There's a Lot More to Trading and I... - Ticker TapeOne of the biggest misconceptions about trading is that it is all just luck. Is trading really just a game of chance? Is there any way to improve your odds? The answer is no, and yes. Trading isn’t all about luck because you can make intelligent decisions on what trades to take, but at the same time not every trade will be successful. You have to accept failure in order to succeed.

##The idea of luck is a misconception:

The idea of luck is a misconception. It’s not about who has the most money, or even who knows what they are doing…it’s all about how your brain handles risk and reward in our complex world.

Do you know that research shows we make more impulsive decisions when stressed out? Stress may be one cause for some people to have an increased vulnerability to gambling addiction. This doesn’t sound like much fun! Some other factors which can increase susceptibility to gambling addiction include poverty, social isolation, prior mental illness, access to addictive substances such as alcohol or drugs, and family history of addictions (including “dipsomania”).

A study published in the Journal of Gambling Studies found that gamblers with a family history of addiction were more likely to have worsened gambling symptoms than those without such a history.

People who are addicted might not be able to control their behaviors and they may experience cravings for the activity – even if it’s harmful or dangerous. This is where trading all about luck comes in! If you can take your emotions out, then this will give you an edge over other traders on Wall Street. Is Trading All About Luck?

It’s possible some people just aren’t wired right when it comes to making decisions under duress which would explain why these people seem “luckier” at times – but luckily doesn’t mean there isn’t skill involved as well!

##Trading is about managing risk and being disciplined: (more…)

Emotional Makeup is More Important Than Intelligence

  
Analysis, Education
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  • I haven’t seen much correlation between good trading and intelligence. Some outstanding traders are quite intelligent, but a few aren’t. Many outstanding intelligent people are horrible traders. Average intelligence is enough. Beyond that, emotional makeup is more important.
  • As I recall more than half the course revolved around developing the right attitude, guarding against debilitating emotions, how to think about risk, and how to handle success and failure.
  • Teaching the turtle system itself doesn’t take very long. I was saying you need less than 12 degrees of freedom in a system; versions of the turtle system had three or four.
  • We spent a lot of time talking about our theories on how to control risk; that was actually the bulk of the course. Attitude, emotional control, discipline; those things are harder to teach. All the turtles learned the system and learned the strategy; that was the easy part, but some of them brought the right attitude and right mental set to it and they prospered and became very rich. Others had a more halting career and did not succeed as well. They had the same training, but maybe they did not have the same emotional make-up.

Hold Your Position Until the Trend is Invalidated, Do Not Let Go of Your Position. Be Willing to Experience Your Anxieties

  
Analysis, Education
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  • Maintaining a commitment is particularly important when it comes up for a test.
  • Somewhere along the line of keeping your commitment you may get a feeling that you don’t like.
  • If you are willing to experience the feeling, it can transform into an AHA that supports your commitment.
  • If you are unwilling to experience the feeling, you might abandon your commitment to try to make the feeling go away. That only results in having to feel the feeling after all.
  • The more you are willing to experience the feeling of bumping into walls, the less you have to bump into walls.
  • Trading requires skill at reading the markets and at managing your own anxieties.
  • People have a Conscious Mind and Fred. Fred wants to communicate feelings to CM so CM can experience them and gain experience and share it with Fred so Fred can learn how to react. This is how we manufacture wisdom. When we don’t like our feelings we tie them in k-nots and do not experience them. This interrupts the wisdom manufacture process, and draws drama into our lives.
  • K-nots, protect us from truth and keep our lives in drama. To untie k-nots, fully experience whatever appears in the moment.
  • When you keep your eye on the prize and are willing to experience all the feelings that arise, the prize soon becomes yours.

Market is like an Ocean

  
  Education
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oceanThe market is like an ocean – it moves up and down regardless of what you want. You may feel joy when you buy a stock and it explodes in a rally. You may feel drenched with fear when you go short but the market rises and your equity melts with every uptick. These feelings have nothing to do with the market – they exist only inside you.

The market does not know you exist. You can do nothing to influence it. You can only control your behavior.

The ocean does not care about your welfare, but it has no wish to hurt you either. You may feel joy on a sunny day, when a gentle wind pushes your sailboat where you want it to go. You may feel panic on a stormy day when the ocean pushes your boat toward the rocks. Your feelings about the ocean exist only in your mind. They threaten your survival when you let your feelings rather than intellect control your behavior.

A sailor cannot control the ocean, but he can control himself. He studies currents and weather patterns. He learns safe sailing techniques and gains experience. He knows when to sail and when to stay in the harbor. A successful sailor uses his intelligence.

An ocean can be useful – you can fish in it and use its surface to get to other islands. An ocean can be dangerous – you can drown in it. The more rational your approach, the more likely you are to get what you want. When you act out your emotions, you cannot focus on the reality of the ocean.

A trader has to study trends and reversals in the market the way a sailor studies the ocean. He must trade on a small scale while learning to handle himself in the market. You can never control the market but you can learn to control yourself.

A beginner who has a string of profitable trades often feels he can walk on water. He starts taking wild risks and blows up his account. On the other hand, an amateur who takes several losses in a row often feels so demoralized that he cannot place an order even when his system gives him a strong signal to buy or sell. If trading makes you feel elated or frightened, you cannot fully use your intellect. When joy sweeps you off your feet, you will make irrational trades and lose. When fear grips you, you’ll miss profitable trades.

A professional trader uses his head and stays calm. Only amateurs become excited or depressed because of their trades. Emotional reactions are a luxury that you cannot afford in the markets.

Victor Sperandeo -Quotes

  
  Education
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The key to investment success is emotional discipline. Making money has nothing to do with intelligence. To be a successful investor, you have to be able to admit mistakes. I trained a guy to trade who had a 188 IQ. He was on “Jeopardy” once and answered every question correctly. That same person never made a dime in trading during 5 years!
-Victor Sperandeo

Most people lose money because of lack of emotional discipline
-the ability to keep their emotions removed from investment decisions. Dieting provides an apt analogy. Most people have the necessary knowledge to lose weight—that is they know that in order to lose weight you have to exercise and cut your intake of fats. However, despite this widespread knowledge, the vast majority of people who attempt to lose weight are unsuccessful. Why? Because they lack the emotional discipline.
-Victor Sperandeo

In my opinion, the greatest misconception about the market is the idea that if you buy and hold stocks for long periods of time, you’ll always make money. Let me give you some specific examples. Anyone who bought the stock market at any time between the 1896 low and the 1932 low would have lost money. In other words, there’s a 36 year period in which a buy-and-hold strategy would have lost money. As a more modern example, anyone who bought the market at any time between the 1962 low and the 1974 low would have lost money.
-Victor Sperandeo
-Victor Sperandeo
Once a price move exceeds its median historical age, any method you use to analyze the market, whether it be fundamental or technical, is likely to be far more accurate. For example, if a chartist interprets a particular pattern as a top formation, but the market is only up 10% from the last low, the odds are high that the projection will be incorrect. However, if the market is up 25% to 30%, then the same type of formation should be given a great deal more weight.
-Victor Sperandeo
To use a life insurance analogy, most people who become involved in the stock market don’t know the difference between a 20 year old and an 80 year old. Investing in the market without knowing what stage it is in is like selling life insurance to 20 year olds and 80 year olds at the same premium.

A PERFECT EXPLANATION FOR THE COLLECTIVE MADNESS OF CROWDS

  
  Education
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All I can say about the following is WOW, talk about THE perfect explanation for the reason behind unreasonable and illogical crowded moves in the stock market…

The most striking peculiarity presented by a psychological crowd is the
following: Whoever be the individuals that compose it, however like or unlike
be their mode of life, their occupations, their character, or their intelligence,
the fact that they have been transformed into a crowd puts them in possession
of a sort of collective mind which makes them feel, think, and act in a manner
quite different from that in which each individual of them would feel, think,
and act were he in a state of isolation. There are certain ideas and feelings
which do not come into being, or do not transform themselves into acts except
in the case of individuals forming a crowd. The psychological crowd is a
provisional being formed of heterogeneous elements, which for a moment are
combined, exactly as the cells which constitute a living body form by their
reunion a new being which displays characteristics very different from those
possessed by each of the cells singly.

…and it was written by a psychologist in 1896!

Anyone care to guess who it is? And it is not Charles Mackay.

THE COLLECTIVE MADNESS OF CROWDS

  
  Education
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All I can say about the following is WOW, talk about THE perfect explanation for the reason behind unreasonable and illogical crowded moves in the stock market…

The most striking peculiarity presented by a psychological crowd is the following: Whoever be the individuals that compose it, however like or unlike be their mode of life, their occupations, their character, or their intelligence,the fact that they have been transformed into a crowd puts them in possession of a sort of collective mind which makes them feel, think, and act in a manner quite different from that in which each individual of them would feel, think,and act were he in a state of isolation. There are certain ideas and feelings
which do not come into being, or do not transform themselves into acts except in the case of individuals forming a crowd. The psychological crowd is a provisional being formed of heterogeneous elements, which for a moment are combined, exactly as the cells which constitute a living body form by their reunion a new being which displays characteristics very different from those possessed by each of the cells singly.

…and it was written by a psychologist in 1896!

Maxims of Baltasar Gracian

  
Education, Life
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Baltasar Gracian (1601-1658) wrote many popular maxims:

33. Know when to put something aside– One of life’s great lessons lies in knowing how to refuse, and it is even more important to refuse yourself, both to business and to others…it is worse to busy yourself with the trivial than to do nothing…All excess is a vice, especially in your dealings with others.

51. Know how to choose– Most things in life depend on it. You need good taste and an upright judgment; intelligence and application are not enough…Two talents are involved: choosing and choosing the best.

89. Know yourself-– The key to everything.

104. Have a good sense of what each job requires-– “Far better are the jobs we don’t grow bored with, where variety combines with importance and refreshes our taste.”

110. Don’t wait to be a setting sun. Similar: Quit while you’re ahead; don’t wear out your welcome

121. Don’t make much ado about nothing-– “Few bothersome things are important enough to bother with…Many things that were something are nothing if left alone, and others that were nothing turn into much because we pay attention to them.” Similar: Take it easy.

139. Know your unlucky days – “On some days, everything goes badly; on others, well, and with less effort…Take advantage of such days, and don’t waste a moment of them.” (more…)

Trading Thoughts

  
  Education
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The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day — and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope — to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out — to soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.

When you’re in a losing streak, your ability to properly assimilate and analyze information starts to become distorted because of the impairment of the confidence factor, which is a by-product of a losing streak. You have to work very hard to restore that confidence, and cutting back trading size helps achieve that goal.

When I get hurt in the market, I get the hell out. It doesn’t matter at all where the market is trading. I just get out, because I believe that once you’re hurt in the market, your decisions are going to be far less objective than they are when you’re doing well. If you stick around when the market is severely against you, sooner or later they are going to carry you out.

The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading… I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don’t cut their losses short.”

Market Gravitates or We Spot those LEVELS…. Mystery !!

  
Analysis, Education
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BANK NIFTY

Here in this very space we have written Y’day and updated today intra-day too: @ 9106 wrote to Sell CNX Bank INDEX on any Rise. It would tumble to 8719 level very shortly.  Bang on… just in 48 hrs it collapsed to exactly our level, precisely 8715, a whooping fall of 400 points. 

 In the same breathe you were forewarned that for NF not crossing 5165-68 would weaken it to 4994 – 4970 levels. Exactly from 5168 of y’day it has nosedived uptill 5017.

 

These are indices: Non-manipulatable, Non-influential. How did it happen, who did it, can there be any attributes at all !!!!  Its our ever dependable charts, Analytical skills and wisdom of Insight. Collectively Technical Analysis. Just Pure Intelligence.

Yesterday  I written about Bank stocks…Just click here

Read Yesterday’s Guesstimates

Many Traders had asked about MTNL…..and they say I don’t about failure calls.First of all about MTNL….Technically was /still looking hot …But I had written many times never act blindly in market and always consider price as Father of stock/Commodity.

-Now click here and see…the reason ..Why MTNL had crashed in yesterday’s trade.

Now about Failure calls.If I recommend any stock or do analysis then I always write Support/Resistance levels. (more…)

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