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Long or Short Position

Do you need to long or short the market today? If you’re a day trader, forget this question and ignore this post. But if you’re a positional player, perhaps having a holding period of at least 5 sessions, the above question is necessary.

Let us ponder.

1. What are your chances of success (initiating a trade that will eventually turn into a satisfactory profit)? Since you’re going to hold for several sessions, possibly facing several opening gaps along the way, might as well establish a position that you’re going to sleep with. So, unless you get the price you’re comfortable with, stay aside. Particularly practical with long holidays.
2. Is this your original plan? Are you trading according to your overall strategy or purely intraday impulse? I don’t think its very difficult to tell the difference. If you trade base on intraday impulse, you get a little more excited than usual.
3. ‘I have been dormant for some time, and I seriously need to do something’. The degree of this itchiness varies according to individuals. If you come from a day trading background, you’ll have a tougher time adjusting. After all, the mindset of ‘If I don’t do anything, I am not going to make anything either’ is in every human’s mind. Think about it. Position trading involves much passiveness, so technically, after establishing a position, you are dormant in some way.
4. ‘I am sure this is a solid short term opportunity’. I think this is the mother of all trading sin. Of course, this does not apply to day traders. But if you’re now a positional trader, stay a positional trader. Learn to let go the small fish.

Use discipline to eliminate impulse trading

  • Have a disciplined, detailed trading plan for each trade; i.e., entry, objective, exit, with no changes unless hard data changes. Disciplined money management means intelligent trading allocation and risk management. The overall objective is end-of-year bottom line, not each individual trade.
  • When you have a successful trade, fight the natural tendency to give some of it back.
  • Use a disciplined trade selection system: an organized, systematic process to eliminate impulse or emotional trading.

  • Trade with a plan – not with hope, greed, or fear. Plan where you will get in the market, how much you will risk on the trade, and where you will take your profits.
  • Impulse Trades

    Three things to know about Impulse trades for scalpers:

    • Impulse Trades are a strict No-No
    • If you do take it by mistake, don’t do it again if you want to be a serious profit-making trader
    • Ok, you did take an impulse trade ? Do the following:
      Watch it more carefully than you would do with a normal trade that follows your system.
      Keep a stop loss or limit in mind immediately and no matter what, GET OUT at that level. If it moves in your direction, trail it with the same rigourous discipline.

    Chasing A Trade and Fear

    Everyone knows that chasing price is usually not beneficial, we either end up catching the move too late, or we get poor trade location, which makes it more difficult to manage the trade.

    However, there are other forms of chasing that are just as common, maybe more common, and just as counter-productive.   Traders who are not profitable are often too quick to chase after new set-ups and indicators, or a different chat room, if that’s your thing.  Obviously, we need to have a trading edge, whether it is from the statistical perspective of a positive expectancy, or simply the confidence in a particular discretionary strategy such as tape reading, following order flow, market profile, etc.

    Chasing a trade is the fear of missing out. The fear of missing out is associated with various emotions, including regret. In my work with traders and in my own trading, I’ve seen the incredible power of regret. There’s a lot of talk about fear and greed in trading, but the power of regret is often overlooked. Some of my own worst trades, and those of my clients, often have a ‘regret from missing a prior opportunity’ component. When I finally finish my book on the psychology of financial risk taking, I will include much about this overlooked but very powerful emotion.

    Somewhat related to chasing a trade, is impulse trading.  They both have in common the underlying feeling of the fear of missing out.  It’s tempting for me to talk about impulse trading here, but it really deserves its own piece. 

    The Hidden Variable in Your Trading Success

    Most traders realize that trading involves a lot of psychology. And most traders readily admit that a significant portion of their trading losses, or lack of performance, is due to “psychology”.  Although the term ‘psychology’ isn’t always mentioned as an explanation, you can see it easily enough in the following statements ……”I froze just as I was about to pull the trigger”….. ”I hesitated and missed that trade and was so pissed that I got myself into an impulse trade right after”…..  “That large loss was not what I wanted, I held it thinking it would come back because last time I bailed out of this type of trade I got stopped out right before it reversed”….. “I was really nervous about losing money again so I got out of my winning trade way before my target”

    Those are four common examples of trading psychology issues manifesting in one’s trading.  Do you recognize yourself in the above statements?

    All four of those statements have in common one thing, fear. Whether it’s the fear of not being perfect, the fear of being wrong, fear of losing money, fear of missing out, the fear of not being approved by others, or some other fear, the common theme is fear.  Most trading mistakes are a maladaptive attempt to deal with fear or anxiety. (more…)

    The Power of Regret

    Everyone knows that chasing price is usually not beneficial, we either end up catching the move too late, or we get poor trade location, which makes it more difficult to manage the trade.

    However, there are other forms of chasing that are just as common, maybe more common, and just as counter-productive.   As a trading psychologist I see these all the time.

    Traders who are not profitable are often too quick to chase after new set-ups and indicators, or a different chat room, if that’s your thing.  Obviously, we need to have a trading edge, whether it is from the statistical perspective of a positive expectancy, or simply the confidence in a particular discretionary strategy such as tape reading, following order flow, market profile, etc.

    Chasing a trade is the fear of missing out. The fear of missing out is associated with various emotions, including regret. In my work with traders and in my own trading, I’ve seen the incredible power of regret. There’s a lot of talk about fear and greed in trading, but the power of regret is often overlooked. Some of my own worst trades, and those of my clients, often have a ‘regret from missing a prior opportunity’ component. When I finally finish my book on the psychology of financial risk taking, I will include much about this overlooked but very powerful emotion.

    Somewhat related to chasing a trade, is impulse trading.  They both have in common the underlying feeling of the fear of missing out.  It’s tempting for me to talk about impulse trading here, but it really deserves its own piece.

    My Favorite Passage

    It is interesting to observe the way most futures traders play the futures game in relation to the possible ways that money games can be played:

    1. The most effective approach to the objective of maximizing results is to play a favorable game on a small scale.
    2. Less desirable, but still providing a reasonable chance of success, is playing a favorable game on a large scale with enough profits coming early in the game to avoid ruin.
    3. A basically unfavorable game may yield profitable results (presuming that one insists on playing unfavorable games) if one plays seldom and bets heavily.
    4. The only road that leads inevitably to disaster is playing an unfavorable game continuously.
    The trader who trades on impulse or uses some other invalid method of making trading decisions is following the fourth route, which is crowded with bumper-to-bumper traffic.

    Mastering Impulse and Fear

    The Trader/Subscriber

    1. When what I am trading is not moving, I need to get better at sitting on my hands. Something in me keeps pushing me to pull the trigger — and it often wins.

    2. For every trade, I need to place my stop at the “If the price gets here, I was wrong” location and no closer. If the size of that stop is just too scary, I need to pass on the trade. This is the way he sets his stop.

    This is  our response to this Subscriber

    I think trading live for you is important. Though good for learning methodology, learning psychology does not happen when trading simulated. Different worlds. When risk enters the picture, our hidden assumptions about uncertainty comes to light — if you’re looking for them. In your scheme this is how you are discovering your placement of stops from what I can see. They appear to be a mixture of standard textbook knowledge of stop strategy and your emotional reaction to them.  (more…)

    AN 1873 LETTER ON LUCK VERSUS SKILL

    We often confuse luck with skill, especially in the stock market.  In fact, Michael J. Mauboussin has written a worthy read on separating the two in his newest book The Success Equation:  Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing.  But long before the contemporary discussions of luck versus skill, ancient speculators were enthralled by luck’s deceptive ways of making mere mortals feel godlike.  However, that sense of omniscience, just like a string of luck, is fleeting and continues to lure modern speculators into a trap today just like it did Saxon-les-Bains, a man of culture, almost 150 years ago.  In a 1873 letter to The Spectator entitled “A Study in the Psychology of Gambling” Saxon-les-Bains describes his gambling experience in Monte Carlo.

    And what was my experience?  This chiefly, that I was distinctly conscious of partially attributing to some defect of stupidity in my own mind, every venture on an issue that proved a failure; that I groped about within me something in me like an anticipation or warning (which of course was not to be found) of what the next event was to be, and generally hit upon some vague impulse in my own mind which determined me: that when I succeeded I raked up my gains, with a half impression that I had been a clever fellow, and had made a judicious stake, just as if I had really moved skillfully as in chess; and that when I failed, I thought to myself, ‘Ah, I knew all the time I was going wrong in selecting that number, and yet I was fool enough to stick to it,’ which was, of course, a pure illusion, for all that I did know the chance was even, or much more than even, against me.  But this illusion followed me throughout.  I had a sense ofdeserving success when I succeeded, or of having failed through my own willfulness, or wrong-headed caprice, when I failed.  When, as not infrequently happened, I put a coin on the corner between four numbers, receiving eight times my stake, if any of the four numbers turned up, I was conscious of an honest glow of self-applause… (more…)

    G. C. Selden Trading Psychology – Hunches And Gut Feelings

    Recently most traders probably have spent a great deal of time managing risk and emotions. I know I have. When it comes to correctly gauging and dealing with emotions it is paramount to analyze your reactions in a detached way. The best way to get objective insight is to imagine taking a step back and then ‘watching yourself.’ It’s as if you were your own mentor or trading coach. This is not an easy task. Good results require emotional detachment, a lot of experience and the ability to honestly assess the degree of trading proficiency you have attained. Ultimately it will tell you what those gut feelings you are occasionally experiencing really are worth. That’s exactly what G.C. Selden addresses at the end of his classic trading book : ‘Psychology of the Stock Market’ which was first published in 1912. Here’s an excerpt dealing with ‘hunches and gut feelings.’ Lots of additional and valuable insight for traders is provided. Enjoy!

     

    An exaggerated example of “getting a notion” is seen in the so-called “hunch.” This term appears to mean, when it means anything, a sort of sudden welling up of instinct so strong as to induce the trader to follow it regardless of reason. In many cases, the “hunch” is nothing more than a strong impulse.

    Almost any business man will say at times, “I have a feeling that we ought not to do this,” or “Somehow I don’t like that proposition,” without being able to explain clearly the grounds for his opposition. Likewise the “hunch” of a man who has watched the stock market for half a lifetime may not be without value. In such a case it doubtless represents an accumulation of small indications, each so trifling or so evasive that the trader cannot clearly marshal and review them even in his own mind. (more…)