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Texas coronavirus cases up >10k on Thursday, record deaths in one day

COVID-19 numbers published from Texas for the preceding 24 hours

  • New cases +10,291 bring the total to 292,656. This is the fourth highest single day increase. If there is a positive to be gleaned maybe 4th biggest is it?
  • The death toll however has gained at a record pace, for a second consecutive day, up 129 to a total of 3,561
  • Hospitalisations down 14, down for a second consecutive day – again trying to gather some positive signs, this is one
COVID-19 Texas coronavirus

Major indices break winning streaks

S&P and NASDAQ break a today winning streak. Dow industrial average breaks its 4 day winning streak

The major indices have broken their recent winning streaks. Admittedly the NASDAQ and the S&P index is at only reason for 2 straight days, but the Dow industrial average had a 4 day winning streak snapped in trading today.

The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -10.99 points or -0.34% at 3215.57
  • NASDAQ index -76.66 points or -0.73% at 10473.83
  • Dow industrial average -135.39 points or -0.50% at 26734.73
Below are the percentage changes and percentage high low ranges for the North American and European indices. Apart from the Italian FTSE MIB and the Portuguese PSI 20, the major indices all closed lower today.
S&P and NASDAQ break a today winning streak. Dow industrial average breaks its 4 day winning streak_After the close Netflix showed a greater than expected rise in new subscribers (10.1 million vs. 8.2M estimate),. But forecast Q3 subscribers much less than expectations at 2.5 million vs. 5.1 million estimate

ECB leaves rates unchanged, as expected

ECB continues to reiterate stands ready to adjust all of its instruments

ECB continues to reiterate stands ready to adjust all of its instruments
  • Full statement
  • Prior statement
  • Interest rates to remain at present or lower until it has seen inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to but below 2% within its protection horizons (repeat)
  • No change to rate tiering multiplier
  • Will continue purchases under PEPP with a total envelope of 1,350B euros
  • Will continue to fully invest maturing securities at least through end-2022
  • PEPP will run at least through end of June 2021
  • The ECB cites ‘very high takeup’ of TLTRO-III
  • In its June forecast the ECB saw GDP down 8.7% in 2020 and up 5.2% in 2021
There are no changes here whatsoever. The euro chopped around 1.1400 on the release but has ticked up to 1.1410 since.

Here is the list (so far) of the crypto hacked Twitter account

Accounts hacked so far by the Bitcoin scam, asking you send coins to a bogus address

  •  Bill Gates
  •  Elon Musk
  •  Joe Biden
  •  Warren Buffett
  •  Kanye West
  •  Michael Bloomberg
  •  Apple
  •  Uber
  •  Jeff Bezos
  •  Barack Obama
Tweet looks like this – DO NOT SEND COINS TO ANYONE AT ALL RIGHT NOW until this thing is fixed:
Accounts hacked so far by the Bitcoin scam, asking you send coins to a bogus address

Fauci says will have an effective COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2020

Anthony Fauci speaking with Reuters on the coronavirus

  • Says that US will have an effective coronavirus vaccine by year-end
  • Moderna’s vaccine trial results were especially promising
  • He does not think China will be first with a vaccine, at least not by much
Anthony Fauci speaking with Reuters on the coronavirus

DOE crude oil inventories for July 10 week -7.493M vs -2.098 million estimate

DOE crude oil inventories for the week of July 10, 2020

  • crude oil inventories -7.493 million vs. -2.1 million estimate
  • gasoline inventories -3.147 million vs. -1.3 million estimate
  • distillates inventories -0.453 million vs. 1.5 million estimate
  • Cushing OK crude inventories 0.949 million vs. 2 point to 0 6 million last week
  • US refinery utilization 0.6% vs. 0.5% estimate
  • crude oil implied demand 17637 vs. 17586 last week
  • gasoline implied demand 9248.4 vs. 9290.0 last week
  • distillates implied demand 5023.7 vs. 4380.1 last week
The private API data released near the close of yesterday’s trade showed a bigger than expected drawdown of -8.322. Today’s crude oil inventory data was below the API data by about 900 K. Below are the private data results:
DOE crude oil inventories for the week of July 10, 2020
Crude oil is trading at $40.50 just prior to the report. The current price is trading at $40.64

Bank of Canada holds rates at 0.25%, as expected

Highlights of the Bank of Canada rate decision

  • Prior was 0.25% (this is the effective lower bound for Canada)
  • BOC pledges to keep rates at 0.25% until inflation target hit
  • BOC to continue $5B per week in QE; repeats buying will continue “until the recovery is well underway”
  • BOC stands ready to adjust its programs if market conditions warrant
  • Says economic decline “considerably less severe than the worst scenarios presented in the April MPR”
  • BOC sees 40% of activity recovered in Q3 but then “the Bank expects the economy’s recuperation to slow as the pandemic continues to affect confidence and consumer behaviour and as the economy works through structural challenges”
  • Central scenario in in MPR shows economy not likely to return to pre-COVID levels until 2022
  • Sees 2020 GDP down 7.8%, up 5.1% in 2021 and up 3.7% in 2022
  • Says Q2 activity estimated to have fallen about 15% below its level at the end of 2019, economy appears to have bottomed in April
  • Sees US GDP down 8.1% in 2020, up 3.4% in 2021 and up 4.3% in 2022
  • Global GDP forecast down 5.2% in 2020 and up 5.2% in 2021
  • The path for CPI in the next year largely reflects the influence of energy prices
The big news here is this line:
“The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved.”
That’s forward guidance indicating no hikes until 2% inflation is ‘substantially achieved’. That last phrase leaves them some wiggle room but this is conditional forward guidance.
Macklem will hold a briefing at 1500 GMT (11 am ET)
Forecasts in the MPR:
BOC forecasts for developed world

BOJ’s Kuroda: Economic activity has gradually resumed

BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, begins his press conference

Kuroda
  • But Japanese economy remains in an extremely severe siituation
  • Pace of recovery to only be moderate
  • Inflation is likely to be negative for the time being
  • Future economic developments remain extremely unclear
  • Risks are tilted to the downside for prices, economic growth
  • BOJ won’t hesitate to ease further if needed
  • Will continue to support corporate financing, markets
Kuroda is still maintaining a more subdued take on the economic situation but that is hardly a surprise. The recent economic data from Japan have been rather poor and a possible virus resurgence only adds to more risks surrounding the outlook.
But Kuroda stands firm in assuring that the BOJ policies since March are having an impact, though I’m sure they pretty much lucked out on this one with the Fed and ECB doing most of the heavy lifting to appease financial risks in the market for the most part.

OPEC: Sees demand falling 8.95 mbpd this year, rising by 7 mbpd in 2021

Highlights of the OPEC monthly oil report

  • Sees 2020 demand -8.95 mbpd vs -9.07 in prior report
  • Sees US output down 1.37 mbpd this year; +0.24 mbpd next year
  • Oil stocks are 210 million barrels above 5-year avg
  • Efficiency gains and remote working to cap demand rise in 2021 to below 2019 levels
A separate report, citing delegates, sees OPEC+ June compliance at 107%.

Eurozone May industrial production +12.4% vs +15.0% m/m expected

Latest data released by Eurostat – 14 July 2020

  • Prior -17.1%; revised to -18.2%
  • Industrial production WDA -20.9% vs -18.9% y/y expected
  • Prior -28.0%; revised to -28.7%

Factory output rebounded in May but not as robust as anticipated, with the annual reading highlighting the plight faced by the euro area economy despite the gradual easing of lockdown measures. June should also reflect a rebound but new normal conditions and the pace of the recovery will likely only be seen in July to August or later in Q3.