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Japan press – “Abenomics here to stay”

Justin had the news on Friday of the imminent retirement of Japanese Prime Minister Abe.

  • the end of an era for Japanese politics
Abe will not be taking Abenomics with him though, Japan Times:
  • economists say Japan’s next leader will likely maintain he basic Abenomics framework
  • “For sure, markets will be watching the continuity. I think many are assuming that things won’t change a lot, but the new prime minister will need to clearly explain that,” said Daiju Aoki, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management Japan.
Shunsuke Kobayashi, chief economist at Mizuho Securities:
  • “The government will need to continue to deal with the pandemic and do what’s necessary to contain it while limiting the economic damage … whoever becomes the prime minister, he or she will have to face the same issue and take the same necessary steps” 
ps. Much of Abenomics boiled down to massive policy easing from the BOJ. This is not gonna change any time soon.
Abe was PM from 2006 to 2007 and then again since 2012. He will step down on or around September 15.  He is the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japanese history. Get well soon, and enjoy your retirement sir!

Justin had the news on Friday of the imminent retirement of Japanese Prime Minister Abe.

France’s health ministry says the “exponential” rise in new coronavirus cases is “very worrying”

Eyes on France where Friday saw 7000+ new confirmed COVID-19 cases and Saturday 5,000+

The health ministry says:

  • “In mainland France, the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic is exponential. The strong growth dynamics of transmission is very worrying,” 
Via Reuters
On Friday compulsory mask-wearing was introduced to Paris. Efforts are being made to avoid another harsh economic lockdown.
Eyes on France where Friday saw 7000+ new confirmed COVID-19 cases and Saturday 5,000+

Like a general fighting the last war

Central banks doing now what they should have been doing a decade ago

The last half of the 2010s was characterized by central banks trying to get back to ‘normal’ or to ‘home’ on interest rates. They were obsessed with getting away from the zero bound, just so they could cut again in the future.
They were slaves to the Phillips Curve and few of them emphasized (or realized) that technology, globalization and deunionization were putting downward pressure on prices.
Now we arrive in the 2020s and they’ve seen the light. They’re pledging to keep rates low and goose inflation above target. Kaplan today highlighted technology-enabled disruption as justification.
The problem is that the game is likely to change again. It’s all like a general investing in trench-digging equipment after the first world war. China is now exporting inflation.
I believe that the layering on of leverage should be one of the big takeaways from the market blowup in March. Central banks should be tackling that but instead, they’re building an even-larger tower of leverage in the belief that if anything goes wrong, they can always pump in enough money to make it better. That’s a mistake.
The real danger though is inflation. Yields moved up yesterday and in Asia today before correcting back lower. If they start to move up, bond investors are going to be sitting on massive paper losses.
Already, parts of the market are signaling that inflation is coming.Note that 5y5y forward inflation rates today are at 2.13%; a level that would crush today’s 10-year note bond buyers at 0.73%.
That’s a long way from even the post-crisis era but you can see which direction it’s moving.
Poweell
I’m the furthest thing from an evangelical on inflation but you can see the way that house prices, commodity prices and government spending are going.

Coronavirus – Abbott launches a $5 Covid-19 test, 15 min turnaround. No lab required.

This is the Abbott BinaxNOW™ COVID-19 Ag Card test

  • The test delivers results in just 15 minutes
  • no instrumentation required
The firm cite:
  • demonstrated sensitivity of 97.1% and specificity of 98.5% in clinical study
  • Company will ship tens of millions of tests in September, ramping to 50 million tests a month at the beginning of October
Note – not a vaccine, not a cure, not palliative. ‘Just’ a test.
But, rapid testing can enhance detection and subsequent isolation and help inprove the ‘R’ number (get it lower). So it is significant.
ps. This new test has been in the news, so its not a ‘breaking’ development.
This is the Abbott BinaxNOW™ COVID-19 Ag Card test

Laura expected to make landfall in about 12 hours as Category 4 hurricane

The latest from the NHC forecast

The latest from the NHC forecast on Laura
The US National Hurricane Center is out with its latest update on Hurricane Laura and it’s not good.
Laura is likely to continue strengthening today while it moves over warm waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical wind shear remains low. Laura’s intensity could level-off by this evening due to the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle and the expected increase in shear around the time of landfall. Even if the rate of strengthening eases, Laura is expected to be an extremely powerful category 4 hurricane when it reaches the northwestern Gulf coast.
This has the potential to be especially devastating for the oil & gas industry and its workers. The current track takes the eye through or near Beaumont, TX or Lake Charles, LA. Both are massive US refining hubs. The Houston area will also be hit but it now looks like the worst of the storm will pass to the east of it.
Category 4 hurricanes have sustained winds in the 209-251 km/h range, or 130-156 mph. Storm surges are generally 13-18 feet but can be as much as 24 feet. The NHC says the storm surge from Laura could penetrate 30 miles inland.
A recent Category 4 storm was Hurricane Harvey in 2017. It inflicted an estimated $125B in damage as it first made landfall near Corpus Christi and then raked the coast, causing widespread flooding in Houston. It matched Katrina as the most-costly US hurricane.
This storm appears to be faster moving so flood damage may not be as high but wind damage could be worse. It will also then cut across the mid-Atlantic states and could reform as a tropical storm off the coast of North Carolina or Virginia.

China reportedly said to expect record amount of US soybean purchases this year

Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter

The report says that China is said to expect a record amount of US soybean purchases this year as “lower prices help to boost purchases pledged under the Phase One trade deal”.
Adding that the total imports from the US will probably reach about 40 million tonnes in 2020, which will be around 25% more than the 2017 level – the baseline year for the deal.
That said, one of the sources did provide a caveat in saying that despite the forecast and expectation, China’s imports will ultimately be decided by soybean prices and the impact of the virus pandemic i.e. no firm commitment.
I don’t think the report here is a coincidence after customs data yesterday showed that Chinese imports of US soybeans were unusually low in July this year, while imports of Brazil soybeans surged considerably.
For some context, China’s purchases of US farm goods up until July are at just ~27% of the target implied by the Phase One trade deal.
US China

US election Joe Biden says ‘No new taxes’ for anyone making less than $400,000

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden interview in US media (ABC)

  • “I will raise taxes for anybody making over $400,000”
  • “no new taxes” would be raised for anyone making under $400,000
We should begin to get policy announcements such as this in coming weeks.

Link here to the report for more
Biden and Harris:
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden interview in US media (ABC)

China health official says China has officially launched emergency use of COVID19 vaccines

Coronavirus weekend news – Chinese media, Global Times, reports via Twitter that an official at the country’s National Health Commission:

  • says China has officially launched emergency use of a vaccine
  • the vaccine has been in clinical trial since July 22
GT also report on a more than 20,000 person phase III clinical trial in the UAE of Sinopharm’s COVID19 vaccine
  • has shown a high level of safety
  • efficacy is currently under observation
Coronavirus weekend news - Chinese media, Global Times, reports via Twitter that an official at the country's National Health Commission:
Both of the GT items are tweets only, not accompanied by further articles for more information.
There is one more that is accompanied by an article – saying that China’s first recombinant protein COVID-19 vaccine made from insect cells has been approved for clinical trials by the National Medical Products Administration.
  • vaccine is being developed by the State Key Laboratory of Biological Therapy of Sichuan University affiliated West China Hospital
  • vaccine uses insect cells to multiply in the culture medium and introduces the gene of COVID-19 into insect cells, which means the cell can be used as a factory to produce high-quality recombinant vaccine proteins and purify them for refinement.
  • vaccine was tested on monkeys and other animals, and was found to have a good protective effect against COVID-19 infection, with no obvious side effects
Given the history of how markets view vaccine news (generally positively) this threefer from the GT might be a boost for sentiment on Monday. There is still plenty of time left over the weekend for less than favourable stories to develop, stay tuned.

Why the US dollar continues to rebound and what’s next

The pressure is on

Dollar
The US dollar has extended its gains as market participants get caught wrong-footed in a rebound after multi-month lows.
The dollar looked to be breaking down yesterday and today but stabled itself and is making a move to the upside. There are two near term factors to watch:
1) The 20-year auction
The US is selling $25B in 20-year bonds at the top of the hour. Last week there was a strong 10-year sale and a very weak 30-year sale so the bond market is off balance. A higher-than-anticipted yield could boost the dollar further.
2) The FOMC minutes
The Fed is a below-the-radar risk at the moment. The strong belief in markets is that they’re creeping towards doing more for the economy but an improvement in US virus cases, decent economic data, higher inflation and the stock market at record highs might make them slow their roll. If so, the dollar could climb further
Overall, this looks like a position-squaring squeeze in a quiet mid-August market to me but you can’t take anything for granted. If it spills over into a broad risk-off move, then the dollar could have a lot of room to run.
The EUR/USD chart to me looks like a retest of the range break before a further breakout but a close over 1.19 today would add confidence.
EURUSD chart

FOMC meeting minutes, what to expect later?

Likely more noise more than anything else

Fed

The market will be keenly eyeing the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes later today but it is unlikely to tell us much that we don’t already know at the moment.

The Fed has acknowledged that the economic situation is starting to worsen a little and cast a bit of a dark cloud over the outlook in 2H 2020, considering the fact that the virus situation was escalating rather rapidly across the US last month.
If anything, I would say the minutes should just reaffirm that sentiment and also highlight that the Fed will still do whatever it takes to bolster the economy.
Other than that, there may be room to look out for potential policy changes/tweaks – possibly on future communication – but that is unlikely to offer much as the longer-term plan remains in tact (still just be mindful of this space in any case).
While the market may be looking to the minutes for further suggestions, it is not likely to change the themes that we have been seeing so far to start the week.
The softer outlook may be a signal for equities to pause after hitting all-time highs but for the dollar, election uncertainty and the stalemate on stimulus talks have been factors that are weighing on the currency; and those won’t be going away.
The dollar gave up on some key technical levels in trading yesterday but amid a tricky August so far, let’s see if sellers have the conviction to follow through ahead of the weekend.