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How Mistakes Can Become Baggage

Those of us who don’t learn from mistakes are destined to repeat them. Most traders are busy focusing on trying to understand what moves the market, but an equally beneficial endeavor is understanding what causes you to move.

This involves knowing the underlying, often subconscious to a degree,  reasons behind your entries and exit decisions. The inner market. Understanding the connection between your internal state and your behavior is a very effective way to get a handle on repeated mistakes.

In general, P&L is an expression of how well you control your actions, not how well you analyze charts, the market, economy etc. Or more accurately, how well you control your actions when facing the discomfort of uncertainty. 

Mistakes become emotional baggage when we choose not to learn from them. Not wanting those moments where we can see the truth about our own issues ensures they return again.

The Psychology Of Speculation – The Disconcerting Effect Of Sudden Losses And Gains

Time for another classic trading book excerpt.   It is about limiting losses and ultimately becoming a better trader if you are willing to embark on that never ending journey to better understand yourself. James L. Fraser from Fraser Publishing clearly understood that. The introduction he wrote clearly shows his deep understanding of human psychology, trading and speculation. Human behavior never changes. That’s why I am a huge fan of old classics. Buy those books. Read them. Apply the wisdom imparted.

Henry Howard Harper: ‘The Psychology of Speculation – The Human Element in Stock Market Transactions’

Introduction
First privately printed by the author in 1926 and only found in secondhand stores at rare intervals this classic deserves a more wide spread audience. Harper’s human behavior material gives us insights into the handicapping prejudices that ruin our stock market theories and sound resolutions. Especially in our computer oriented age does the average investor seem incapable of calm reasoning , with the result that he often does precisely the opposite of what he had intended doing.

Moreover, Harper’s easy writing style clearly shows you how the correct ideas of theory are turned into the wrong formulas of practice, and how tickeritis, though mentally intoxicating, leads on to poverty. In a contrary way, we seldom see the favorite caprice of the stock market which is to violate precedent, and do the thing least expected of it. You had better believe it for there are no certainties in this investment world, and where you have no certainties, you should begin by understanding yourself.

James L. Fraser
Wells,Vermont

The Disconcerting Effect of Sudden Losses and Gains, page 17 – 19

There are but few things more unbalancing to the mind than the act of suddenly winning or losing large sums of money. A few years ago at Monte Carlo I was in company with a friend, a well known man of affairs who while there played at roulette nearly every day, merely as pastime. He was of mature age, naturally methodical, conservative, temperate and cool-headed. He made it an unalterable rule to limit his losses to $200 at any one sitting, and on losing his amount he always stopped playing. His bets were usually limited to two dollars on the numbers, and never doubled except for one turn of the wheel when his number won. He generally played three numbers at a time; never more than four. For ten consecutive sittings luck was against him and each time he had lost his stake of $200. I saw him get up and leave the room, apparently in a state of disgust. An hour or so later I discovered him at a roulette table in another room stacking his chips in piles on a dozen or more numbers. Now and again when he exceeded the limit the watchful croupier reduced his bets and pushed a few disks back to him. In addition to betting on the numbers he was staking a thousand franc note on one of the three columns, another thousand on the colors, and a like amount on the center dozen. In one run he lost seventeen consecutive bets on red, of a thousand franc each. His eyes were bloodshot, his fingers twitched, and plainly he was under the strain of great agitation. He continued to play for three hours or so, when all of a sudden he got up, stood for a moment looking dazedly about, then left the table. He afterwards told me that he lost twenty thousand dollars; and that he hadn’t the slightest recollection of anything that happened during the play, nor did he realize the amount he was betting. In this connection, it is a fact not generally known, that many rich men sing printed cards of instructions to the proprietor of a certain well known gambling club in the South, directing him to stop their play and refuse them further credit beyond a certain specified sum on any one day or evening of play, and refusing to become responsible beyond that amount. If men who trade in the stock market were to impose like restrictions upon their transactions the losses would in many cases be greatly minimized.

SELF DISCIPLINE

Developing Self-Discipline is something that you can start doing right NOW. It doesn’t take vigorous special forces training, nor does it require being related to the almighty samurai bloodline. Instead it requires willdevotion and regular action.

  1. Start by cultivating a desire. Do that by understanding the incredible benefits of such an achievement. The majority of human endeavors fail because humans themselves quit; they quit because their mind and emotion subdues their will and discipline. Such a trait shall make you unstoppable.
  2. Use what is coined by NLP (Neuro-Linguistic Programming) as an Incantation. Stand up and energetically state that you shall achieve this regardless of anything, it’s crucial to incorporate physical movements as well. This molds a stronger message in your mind due to the incorporation of emotion and physicality. Repeat this daily.
  3. Analyze yourself; know where your discipline falls short and is mostly likely to fail. Is it exercising, or facing fears, or maintaining dietary habits?  This will create the targets which you shall work upon. Fast results will come from major concentrated action and not from minimal diffused efforts.
  4. Start, initiate your pursuit by working directly on the weaknesses that keep you away from being self-disciplined. Start small and gradually proceed to making big chances. Day by day incorporate more change but avoid overloading yourself.
  5. Once you have tackled one weakness proceed to the other. The conquest for self-discipline is a never-ending one. Acquiring it requires a constant stream of action, otherwise it shall simply leak from your possession.

Wealth Principles

  • Your income can grow only to the extent you do
  • If you want to change the fruits, you will first have to change the roots.  If you want to change the visible, you must first change the invisible.
  • Money is a result, wealth is a result, health is a result, illness is a result, your weight is a result.  We live in a world of cause and effect.
  • Thoughts –> Feelings–>Actions–>Results TFAR
  • When the subconscious mind must choose between deeply rooted emotions and logic, emotions will almost always win
  • If your motivation for acquiring money or success comes from a non-supportive root such as fear, anger, or the need to “prove” yourself, your money will never bring you happiness
  • The only way to permanently change the temperature in the room is to reset the thermostat.  In the same way, the only way to change our level of financial success “permanently” is to reset your financial thermostat.
  • Consciousness is observing your thoughts and actions so that you can live from true choice in the present moment rather than being run by programming from the past.
  • You can choose to think in ways that will support you in your happiness and success instead of ways that don’t.
  • Money is extremely important in the areas in which it works, and extremely unimportant in the areas in which it doesn’t.
  • When you are complaining, you become a living breathing “crap magnet”
  • There is no such thing as a really rich victim!

(more…)

In Trading :Money is the score card, but the performance engine is love of the game.

One of the great challenges of trading is that it requires intense and singular concentration on markets, but also an equal focus on one’s performance in those markets.  That combination of market awareness and self-awareness enables traders to make the most of their “edges” in markets while also cultivating fresh sources of edge.
It is interesting that very successful traders usually don’t achieve monetary success and then walk away from markets.  That is because what drives them is not just the outcome, but also the process:  the ongoing challenges of market mastery and self-mastery.  Even after the money has been made, the game retains its appeal.
If your motivation is primarily to make money, you probably won’t get to the point of career success, because the inevitable periods of drawdown will sap whatever drive is present.  When the motivation is mastery, losing periods provide fuel for reflection, learning, and improvement.  

The strategy of one of the best-performing hedge fund

Norway is not what you would call a hotbed for hedge funds. Due to restrictive regulatory requirements and an almost uniformly long-only focused investor-community, there are only a handful of hedge funds managed out of Norway.

Despite this, Norwegian Warren Short Term Trading (WST) is one of the best performing hedge funds in the world. Since the fund’s inception in November 2011, its return has been 46.7% with a net 2012-return of 29.1% after fees (pdf).

WST hedge fund manager Peter Chester Warren explains how this works:

Our hypothesis is that most of what happens in the markets during a single day is noise created by orders, rumors and other temporary influences and that there is no informational value in this. Unlike our other funds, we do not try to separate the signal from the noise in WST but accept it for being just noise. … Time is instead spent on creating mathematical and statistical models meant to uncover short-term human behavior.

This is a significantly different strategy than that of most other hedge funds, which typically own assets over a period of time. WST rarely owns assets longer than a few minutes or sometimes even a few seconds.

And every day when the asset manager goes to sleep, he holds zero assets. Then, when he gets back in to the office the next day, he starts from scratch again, looking for tiny opportunities in the markets using a combination of correlations, math and experience. (more…)

7 -Market Wisdom

  1. First Things First
    You sure you really want to trade ? It is common for people who think they want to trade to discover that they really don’t.
  2. Examine Your Motives
    Why do you really want to trade ? Did you say excitement ? Then don’t waste your money in market, you might be better off riding a roller coaster or taking up hand gliding.
    The market is a stern master. You need to do almost everything right to win. If parts of you are pulling in opposite directions, the game is lost before you start.
  3. Match The Trading Method To Your Personality
    It is critical to choose a method that is consistent with your your own personality and conflict level.
  4. It Is Absolutely Necessary To Have An Edge
    You cant win without an edge, even with the world’s greatest discipline and money management skills. If you don’t have an edge, all that money management and discipline will do for you is to guarantee that you will gradually bleed to death. Incidentally, if you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one.
  5. Derive A Method
    To have an edge, you must have a method. The type of method is not important, but having one is critical-and, of course, the method must have an edge.
  6. Developing A Method Is Hard Work
    Shortcuts rarely lead to trading success. Developing your own approach requires research, observation, and thought. Expect the process to take lots of time and hard work. Expect many dead ends and multiple failures before you find a successful trading approach that is right for you. Remember that you are playing against tens of thousands of professionals. Why should you be any better ? If it were that easy, there would be a lot more millionaire traders.
  7. Skill Versus Hard Work
    The general rule is that exceptional performance requires both natural talent and hard work to realize its potential. If the innate skill is lacking, hard work may provide proficiency, but not excellence.
    Virtually anyone can become a net profitable trader, but only a few have the inborn talent to become supertraders ! For this reason, it may be possible to teach trading success, but only upto a point. Be realistic in your goals.

The Zurich Axioms – Forecasts Predictions And Prophets

Here’s what Max Gunther, author of ‘The Zurich Axioms’ has to say:

The Zurich Axioms: ‘On Forecasts’, page 62:

Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

‘Speculative Strategy’:
The Fourth Axiom tells you not to build your speculative program on a basis of forecasts, because it won’t work. Disregard all prognostications. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word. Nobody.
Of course, we all wonder what will happen, and we all worry about it. But to seek escape from that worry by leaning on predictions is a formula for poverty. The successful speculator bases no moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. (more…)

Get Rs 25000 right now or flip a coin with a 50/50 chance of winning Rs 50000. Which do you go for?

Think of an answer before reading further.

Now. You have the choice of definitely losing  RS 25000 or flipping a coin with a 50/50 chance of losing Rs 50000. Which option do you take?

If you answered both questions the same way, congratulations, you have a rational attitude toward gains and losses. That’s good news if you’re a trader.

Studies show that most people will pick receiving Rs 25000 while opting to take the chance of losing Rs 50000 or nothing. It’s called loss aversion and it’s because negative reactions to loss impact our psyches twice as hard as the rush of making gains does.

Master that psychological part of trading and you’re one step closer to being the trader you want to be.

Examine Your Beliefs

There is lot of talk of trading psychology , but what exactly are the 3 or 5 things you can do to improve your psychology.
If you want to increase your muscles you go and lift weight
If you want to improve your stamina, you go and run daily
If you want to reduce weight you eat less and exercise more
What exactly do you need to do to improve your psychology.
First starting point if you want to improve your psychology is by examining your beliefs
You can only trade what you believe in.
Your beliefs drive your behavior. (more…)
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