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Never Invest in Something You Cannot Understand

One lesson from Warren Buffett has served me particularly well over the years:

“Never invest in a business you cannot understand.”

Of course, this can be extended across much of the financial world.  As a general rule I adhere to “never invest in something you cannot understand”. I bring this up as the Chinese stock market collapses.  Their stock market has cratered 40%+ in just a matter of weeks. It’s a truly breathtaking collapse. And it reminds me of my own personal experience in Chinese stocks during the 2007 bubble.

In my book I go into some detail about the story, but the short version is that I shorted the Chinese stock market bubble without fully understanding what was going on in the market. At the time there was a discrepancy between mainland China shares and Hang Seng traded shares and the markets traded differently due to a government induced arbitrage that was occurring between the two.  I had literally timed the Shanghai peak to the day, but the Hang Seng market continued to trade higher. And so I was caught short in a vicious bubble during which I rode a 20% rally higher which eventually unwound entirely and left me relatively unscathed, but emotionally scarred. (more…)

Writing your trading plan?

  1. Why am I trading? This is not a trivial question to ask; and you must answer it honestly. Are you trading to make money? Or are you trading for the thrill? In other words, are you trading like an investor or like a gambler?
  2. What are my trading goals? Again, not a trivial question. Are you trying to gain a few dollars for extra spending money? Trying to fund your retirement? Trade for a living? Or are you trying to amass a fortune and retire early to a life of luxury? How you answer this question will identify the level of risk that you will have to endure.
  3. What is the size of my trading account? An obvious question.
  4. What is my skill level? Be honest.
  5. What is my tolerance for risk? And does that tolerance bear any relation to my skill level? It’s no good having a high tolerance for risk if your skills are inadequate.
  6. What must I do to improve my skill level?
  7. If my skill level is low, what trading size can I use to ensure that a single bad decision will not wipe me out? Preserving capital and staying in the game long enough to LTP good trading practices is crucial.
  8. What is my preferred trading instrument and have I familiarized myself with the behavior, range and velocity of that instrument? Some trades, like bonds and the ETF’s can move at a glacial pace.
  9. What indicators will I use to identify my entries and exits? Here, “the more, the merrier” may not be the wisest choice. Remember, there can be paralysis by (over)analysis.
  10. Where will I place my initial stop; and how will I manage them? You may have a trailing stop strategy, or you may plan to just exit when your indicators say, “Get out!”
    (more…)