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False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

  
  Education
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1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part.

4) I have to have a high winning percentage to be profitable.

Not true. How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula:

Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability

5) To be successful, I have to trade without emotions.

That is both wrong and impossible. You are human so you have emotions. Emotions can be a powerful motivator to your trading.

When you feel angry or scared in trading, take that emotion and translate it into something more productive. For example, if you’re feeling angry because you just got run over by the market, view that anger as a reason to be more focused and disciplined in your entry and exit levels on the next trade.

Herd Mentality

  
  Education
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“Making money is easy, it is keeping it that is hard.” 

Keeping the profits is what successful trading is all about. It’s not about making money. It is about risk management. Good risk management translates into good profits. Great risk management translates to great profits and a long-term career.

So what about the herd mentality?

You have all heard about it over the years. Psychologists talk about it all the time, but how does it play out in the applied trading world?

The cliché is that following the herd is dangerous – bad for trading and leads to huge losses.

But my perspective is different and one that states that following the herd is  bad only if it was not YOUR game plan. You see, traders don’t mind losing money. That’s right. They don’t. What they mind is losing money doing stupid things. And one of the stupidest things a trader can do is to follow someone else’s game plan instead of their own.

If you are going to lose money (and you are going to about half the time) then you might as well lose it doing the right thing, which is listening to YOUR ideas. Your instincts. Your research and YOUR game plan.

Trading is not complicated. We make it complicated.

Simplify the process. Break your trading down to its basics and follow your plans. And if your plans happen to be in line with the herd, then so be it. And if they don’t, that is fine too. The point is to be consistent in your approach and let the market come to you.

H + W + P = E

  
  Education
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Understanding your own trading psychology is critical to being a successful portfolio manager. 
Are you focused on trying to make money? Or are you more focused on trying not to lose money?
The truth is that making money is the easy part. It is keeping it that is so hard.
Statistically, you are going to make money half the time anyway as I have found that discretionary traders make money on approximately 45-55% of their trades. That is not my opinion – that is what the data say.
The difference between being profitable and not profitable or modest and substantial returns is not about the frequency of being “right.” It is about how much do you MAKE when you are right and how much do you LOSE when you are wrong.
Don’t trade to be right. Trade to make money. In order to make money, you have to lose less.
As a trading psychology coach, the formula I use with my clients is as follows:
H + W + P = E
Hoping + Wishing + Praying = EXIT THE TRADE! 

"Ten Steps to Wealth and Happiness For Traders "

  
  Education
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1. Have a Plan: If you are going to actively trade, you must have a comprehensive plan. All too many investors I deal with have no strategy at all — its strictly seat of the pants reaction to each and every market twitch. The old cliche “If you fail to plan, than you plan to fail” is absolutely true.

I suggest that traders write up a business plan for their strategy, as if they were asking Venture Capitalists for money for a start up; In fact, you are asking an investor for capital — just because that investor is someone you know a long time (you) doesn’t mean you should skip the planning stages.

2. Expect to be Wrong: Accept this fact: You will be wrong, and often. The plea for help is at least a tacit recognition that you are doing something wrong — and that means you are a giant leap ahead of many failing traders.

Egotists who refuse to recognize the simple truism of being wrong often give up unacceptable amounts of capital. It is only stubborn pride — and lack of risk management — that keeps people in stocks down 50% or more.

Even the best stock pickers in the world are wrong about half the time.

Michael Jordan has the best quote on the subject: “I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times, I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.”

Mike is the greatest player of all times not merely because of his superb physical skills: He understands the nature of failure — and its importance — and places it within a larger framework of the game

3. Predetermine Stops Before Opening Any Position: Once you have come to understand that you will be frequently wrong, it becomes much easier to use stops and sell targets.

I suggest signing a “prenuptial agreement” with every stock you participate in: When it hits a predetermined point, regardless of methodology — below support or a moving average or a specific percentage amount or the monthly low or whatever your stop loss method is — that’s it, you’re out, end of story. No hopin’ or wishin’ or prayin’ or . . . (Apologies to Dusty Springfield)

The prenup means you are making the exit decision before you are in a trade, and when you are neutral and objective. (more…)

5-False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part.

4) I have to have a high winning percentage to be profitable.

Not true. How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula:

Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability

5) To be successful, I have to trade without emotions.

That is both wrong and impossible. You are human so you have emotions. Emotions can be a powerful motivator to your trading.

When you feel angry or scared in trading, take that emotion and translate it into something more productive. For example, if you’re feeling angry because you just got run over by the market, view that anger as a reason to be more focused and disciplined in your entry and exit levels on the next trade.

False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part. (more…)

False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part.

4) I have to have a high winning percentage to be profitable.

Not true. How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula:

Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability

5) To be successful, I have to trade without emotions.

That is both wrong and impossible. You are human so you have emotions. Emotions can be a powerful motivator to your trading.

When you feel angry or scared in trading, take that emotion and translate it into something more productive. For example, if you’re feeling angry because you just got run over by the market, view that anger as a reason to be more focused and disciplined in your entry and exit levels on the next trade.

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