- There are only three kinds of investors – those who think they are geniuses, those who think they are idiots, and those who aren’t sure.
- One of the clearest signals that you are wrong about an investment is having the hunch that you are right about it.
- Investors who focus on price levels earn between five and ten times higher profits than those who pay attention to price changes.
- The only way to be more certain it’s true is to search harder for proof that it is false.
- Business value changes over time, not all the time. Stocks are like weather, altering almost continually and without warning; businesses are like the climate, changing much more gradually and predictably.
- When rewards are near, the brain hates to wait.
- The market isn’t always right, but it’s right more often than it is wrong.
- Often, when we are asked to judge how likely things are, we instead judge how alike they are.
- Most of what seem to be patterns in stock prices are just random variations.
- In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you’ll never learn that you should have fewer ideas. (more…)
Archives of “geniuses” tag
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Mistake
Everyone makes mistakes. Some repeat their mistakes and suffer continuously. The smart ones learn from their own mistakes and call it experience. But the geniuses are a special breed, they’re the ones that learn from the mistakes of others. Here’s what Bruce Kovner has to say about this subject: “You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael [Marcus] taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money. Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I’m getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis. I never think about other people who may be using the same stop, because the market shouldn’t go there if I am right. Place your stops at a point that, if reached, will reasonably indicate that the trade is wrong, not at a point determined primarily by the maximum dollar amount you are willing to lose. If you personalize losses, you can’t trade.”
Wisdom From Jason Zweig
There are only three kinds of investors – those who think they are geniuses, those who think they are idiots, and those who aren’t sure.
- One of the clearest signals that you are wrong about an investment is having the hunch that you are right about it.
- Investors who focus on price levels earn between five and ten times higher profits than those who pay attention to price changes.
- The only way to be more certain it’s true is to search harder for proof that it is false.
- Business value changes over time, not all the time. Stocks are like weather, altering almost continually and without warning; businesses are like the climate, changing much more gradually and predictably.
- When rewards are near, the brain hates to wait.
- The market isn’t always right, but it’s right more often than it is wrong.
- Often, when we are asked to judge how likely things are, we instead judge how alike they are.
- Most of what seem to be patterns in stock prices are just random variations.
- In a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you’ll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
- The more often people watch an investment heave up and down, the more likely they are to trade in and out over the short term – and the less likely they are to earn a high return over the long term.
- Investing is not you versus “Them”. It’s you versus you.
- The single greatest challenge you face as an investor is handling the truth about yourself.
- Hindsight bias keeps you from feeling like an idiot as you look back – but it can make you act like an idiot as you look forward.
- Ignorance of our own ignorance haunts our financial judgments. (more…)
Investment Wisdom
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26 Quotes for Trading & Life
1. Don’t try making sense out of it. You’re in an insane asylum – things are not going to make sense, people will do things that don’t make sense, that they cannot adequately explain. People don’t know what makes them tick, only that they tick.
2. Happiness, of course…is all in your head. If you don’t know that, if you haven’t come to that realization, you will never be happy.
3. The Bull Market Syndrome. People, when they are met with success, take personal credit for it (bull markets breed geniuses), and when they are met with failure, blame luck.
4. Actually, luck is responsible for both! If you can only die by being struck by lightning, eventually, you will die by being struck by lightning! Conversely, if a man were to live forever, and bought a lottery ticket every week, eventually, he will win the lottery, with a probability that approaches certainty. Just stay the course, keep doing today what you must do today. As Woody Allen says, “Fifty percent of success is just showing up.”
Luck Trumps Brains. To get luck, keep showing up each day with your shoes on.
5. Creativity trumps money every time.
6. Fortunately in life, you don’t have to succeed at everything you do, only a few things. One success often justifies all prior attempts.
7. You can buy great a education – you can not buy brains.
8. The Oswald Principle: Usually, the best course of action in life, is to take no action (and usually, the best thing to say is nothing!). The guys in jail or there not because they didn’t do anything. Usually, you should just sleep in! If nothing really bad happens today, as my friend Oswald said to me in eighth grade, it’s been a good day!
9. You don’t have the problems you think you do. Actually, the only real problems are health and criminal problems. Everything else is just a frivolous, meaningless nuisance.
10. Never say never. Everyone, however righteous they may claim to be, however upstanding they say they are, will, under the right circumstances commit the crime. A cold morning, wet, hungry, tired, angry….they’ll do things they never dreamed they would! (more…)
Trading Wisdom – Bruce Kovner
Everyone makes mistakes. Some repeat their mistakes and suffer continuously. The smart ones learn from their own mistakes and call it experience. But the geniuses are a special breed, they’re the ones that learn from the mistakes of others. Here’s what Bruce Kovner has to say about this subject: “You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael [Marcus] taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money. Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I’m getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis. I never think about other people who may be using the same stop, because the market shouldn’t go there if I am right. Place your stops at a point that, if reached, will reasonably indicate that the trade is wrong, not at a point determined primarily by the maximum dollar amount you are willing to lose. If you personalize losses, you can’t trade.”