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Traders Make Decisions based on Probabilities

  
  Education
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Most traders take price swings personally. They feel very proud when they make money and love to talk about their profits. When a trade goes against them they feel like punished children and try to keep their losses secret. You can read traders’ emotions on their faces.

Many traders believe that the aim of a market analyst is to forecast future prices. The amateurs in most fields ask for forecasts, while professionals simply manage information and make decisions based on probabilities. Take medicine, for example. A patient is brought to an emergency room with a knife sticking out of his chest – and the anxious family members have only two questions: “Will he survive?” and “when can he go home?” They ask the doctor for a forecast.

But the doctor is not forecasting – he is taking care of problems as they emerge. His first job is to prevent the patient from dying from shock, and so he gives him pain-killers and starts an intravenous drip to replace lost blood. Then he removes the knife and sutures damaged organs. After that, he has to watch against infection. He monitors the trend of a patient’s health and takes measures to prevent complications. He is managing – not forecasting. When a family begs for a forecast, he may give it to them, but its practical value is low. (more…)

My Time at Lehman

  
Analysis, Education
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I started at Lehman Brothers on June 1st, 2007 as a first year analyst. It was my first job out of college. Dick Fuld, the CEO at the time, publicly discussed “the road to two-hundred,” in which he would not retire until the stock reached $200 per share, almost three times the price when I arrived. Everyone at the firm believed this as though it were a fact – that there was something special about Lehman Brothers stock – it always went up.

I joined Lehman for a few reasons. The first was personal. My mother worked on Wall Street and passed away when I was a teenager. I felt, somewhat misguidedly, as though following in her footsteps would bring me closer to her. The other reasons were simpler. I had been interested in the stock market as a kid (though I went to work trading bonds and credit derivatives), I wanted to make good money, and I thought maybe, just maybe, it would be a bit of fun. (more…)

Twelve of The Biggest Trading Losses in History

  
  Education
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LOSS-LOSSIf you are ever feeling down about your trading losses or feeling sorry form Ackman’s current disaster trades long J.C. Penney and short Herbalife then this article may put both of these losses into perspective. These losses really show how crucial it is to have a price level that will indicate that you were wrong and will need to stop out at. There is no reason to ever take a huge loss to your trading capital, position sizing, stop losses, and managing the risk of ruin is the first job of a trader, growing capital comes second.

“Two basic rules: (1) if you don’t bet, you can’t win. (2) If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.” -Larry Hite

Here are 12 of the biggest trading losses of all time, heed the lessons of these tragedies and realize the traders on the other sides of these trades made a huge amount of money,

#12 German billionaire Adolf Merckle, one of the 100 richest people in the world, killed himself by jumping in front of a train—emotionally “broken” over a bad bet on Volkswagen in 2008.

Merckle’s business interests came out on the wrong side of 2008′s short squeeze of Volkswagen. Rival Porsche silently cornered the market on Volkswagen shares, and when they revealed the extent of their stake, the price of Volkswagen stock shot up to levels that made it briefly the world’s most valuable corporation. Many hedge funds who had bet against Volkswagen shares lost huge amounts of money, while Porsche made billions in profit. (more…)

25 Trading Truths

  
  Education
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Seeing an opportunity and acting upon it are two different things.
•  Price has memory. Odds are what price did the last time it hit a certain level will be repeated  . . .
•  Pay attention to price action, regardless of what the charts are saying.
•  Look for a reversal at the same place you’re expecting a breakout or breakdown.
•  Price action sets up against the majority; the best profits are often in the opposite direction of the way you’re planning to go.
• Add to your winners and cut your losers. ’nuff said.
•  Opportunities come along all of the time. Wait for the best ones.
•  Don’t overly anticipate or see things that aren’t there. Wait for your signals.
•  The day isn’t over until the closing bell ring. The way it ends may be vastly different from how it begins.
•  Your first job isn’t to make money. It’s to protect capital.
•  Don’t rush to buy the lowest price or sell the highest price; It could get much lower or much higher before turning around. (more…)

Traders Make Decisions based on Probabilities

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Most traders take price swings personally. They feel very proud when they make money and love to talk about their profits. When a trade goes against them they feel like punished children and try to keep their losses secret. You can read traders’ emotions on their faces.

Many traders believe that the aim of a market analyst is to forecast future prices. The amateurs in most fields ask for forecasts, while professionals simply manage information and make decisions based on probabilities. Take medicine, for example. A patient is brought to an emergency room with a knife sticking out of his chest – and the anxious family members have only two questions: “Will he survive?” and “when can he go home?” They ask the doctor for a forecast.

But the doctor is not forecasting – he is taking care of problems as they emerge. His first job is to prevent the patient from dying from shock, and so he gives him pain-killers and starts an intravenous drip to replace lost blood. Then he removes the knife and sutures damaged organs. After that, he has to watch against infection. He monitors the trend of a patient’s health and takes measures to prevent complications. He is managing – not forecasting. When a family begs for a forecast, he may give it to them, but its practical value is low. (more…)

Traders Make Decisions based on Probabilities

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Most traders take price swings personally. They feel very proud when they make money and love to talk about their profits. When a trade goes against them they feel like punished children and try to keep their losses secret. You can read traders’ emotions on their faces.

Many traders believe that the aim of a market analyst is to forecast future prices. The amateurs in most fields ask for forecasts, while professionals simply manage information and make decisions based on probabilities. Take medicine, for example. A patient is brought to an emergency room with a knife sticking out of his chest – and the anxious family members have only two questions: “Will he survive?” and “when can he go home?” They ask the doctor for a forecast.

But the doctor is not forecasting – he is taking care of problems as they emerge. His first job is to prevent the patient from dying from shock, and so he gives him pain-killers and starts an intravenous drip to replace lost blood. Then he removes the knife and sutures damaged organs. After that, he has to watch against infection. He monitors the trend of a patient’s health and takes measures to prevent complications. He is managing – not forecasting. When a family begs for a forecast, he may give it to them, but its practical value is low. (more…)

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