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To Trade or Not to Trade

in trading activity alone does not make money, the right activity at the right time is what makes money. Many times the right thing, is to do nothing.

In your actual trading you have to do four things very well to make money.

You have to know when to get in.

Only enter trades that have the highest probability of success and the best risk/reward ratio. Buy the best monster stocks during up trends. Short the fallen leaders when the game changes and they are under the 50 day. Buy the monster stocks at the gift of the 200 day moving average. Short down trending junk stocks. Go where the trends are.

You have to know when to get out.

When your trade reverses through a key support get out. When the market trend changes get out of your long positions. When your stop loss is hit, get out. When the stock reverses and hits your trailing stop, get out.

You have to know when to stay in. (more…)

Discipline

Dramatic and emotional trading experiences tend to be negative. Pride is a great banana peel, as are hope, fear, and greed. My biggest slip-ups occurred shortly after I got emotionally involved with positions.”

Ed Seykota

I don’t buy what I like, I buy what I can sell later at higher price.

Unless you are Buffet and capable to accumulate enough shares to impact management, your shares are just pieces of paper and you should treat them like such.

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It’s the greed factor that corrupts the way people think in this business. Unfortunately, I needed a 6 fig loss to remind me how stupid greed can make a person. Needless to say, from here on, or until I recover some of these losses, trading will be disciplined.

To Trade or Not to Trade-The Biggest Question For Traders

In trading activity alone does not make money, the right activity at the right time is what makes money. Many times the right thing, is to do nothing.

In your actual trading you have to do four things very well to make money.

You have to know when to get in.

Only enter trades that have the highest probability of success and the best risk/reward ratio. Buy the best monster stocks during up trends. Short the fallen leaders when the game changes and they are under the 50 day. Buy the monster stocks at the gift of the 200 day moving average. Short down trending junk stocks. Go where the trends are.

You have to know when to get out. (more…)

Don’t Marry Hot stocks, Just Date Them

wakeourworld:
(via TumbleOn)

  1. Hot stocks are only good when they are in up trends, when the party is over you have to break up with them.
  2. Hot stocks are great to trade in and out of but you don’t want to turn them into a life long investment.
  3. A good stock might look great on the outside with it’s price action but it may not have the best fundamentals for getting serious with.
  4. Hot stocks are great for the short term but for the long term you want a solid investment.
  5. Be careful with hot stocks they may look great on the outside but they can break your heart at any moment.
  6. A hot stock can be a lot of fun for awhile but they can be a lot of drama when no one wants them anymore.
  7. As long as a hot girlfriend is very popular  she will be happy but when no one wants to date her she goes into a downward spiral. This applies to hot stocks as well. 

Quotes on Manipulation

“Observation # 1: The greatest number of losing traders is found in the short-term and intraday ranks.  This has less to do with the time frame and more to do with the fact that many of these traders lack proper preparation and a well thought-out game plan.  By trading in the time frame most unforgiving of even minute error and most vulnerable to floor manipulation and general costs of trading, losses due to lack of knowledge and lack of preparedness are exponential.  These traders are often undercapitalized as well.  Winning traders often trade in mid-term to long-term time frames.  Often they carry greater initial levels of equity as well.” Walter Downs

“The ability of banks to issue claims far in excess of their reserve position is essentially regulated counterfeiting when those claims have little or no chance of being satisfied, and it is an inherently cyclical and destabilizing process. The Fed, as US banks’ chief regulator, has not only condoned this imprudent, unsustainable (and Constitutionally-dubious) activity, it has encouraged and abetted it.”  Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance

“He did not publish or spread any information that was false.  Instead he praised the companies he had invested in to the skies, including the spreading of rumors.  Does his action fall into information-based manipulation because of this?  The answer is: partly.  From the total gain of USD 800,000 he had to repay USD 285,000, so just over a third of the total gain.”  Mark Schindler   

“Runs occur when a group of traders create activity or rumors in order to drive the price of a security up.”  Unknown (more…)

“Don’t marry hot stocks, just date them.”

  1. Hot stocks are only good when they are in up trends, when the party is over you have to break up with them.
  2. Hot stocks are great to trade in and out of but you don’t want to turn them into a life long investment.
  3. A good stock might look great on the outside with it’s price action but it may not have the best fundamentals for getting serious with.
  4. Hot stocks are great for the short term but for the long term you want a solid investment.
  5. Be careful with hot stocks they may look great on the outside but they can break your heart at any moment.
  6. A hot stock can be a lot of fun for awhile but they can be a lot of drama when no one wants them anymore.
  7. As long as a hot girlfriend is very popular  she will be happy but when no one wants to date her she goes into a downward spiral. This applies to hot stocks as well. 

Twenty Rules For Traders

  • 1. Forget the news, remember the chart. You’re not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.
  • 2. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There’s always a crowd that missed the first boat.
  • 3. Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they’re all just waiting to jump in the pool.
  • 4. Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and get ready to cover.
  • 5. Don’t buy up into a major moving average or sell down into one. See #3.
  • 6. Don’t chase momentum if you can’t find the exit. Assume the market will reverse the minute you get in. If it’s a long way to the door, you’re in big trouble.
  • 7. Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don’t. The old traders’ wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can.
  • 8. Trends test the point of last support/resistance. Enter here even if it hurts.
  • 9. Trade with the TICK not against it. Don’t be a hero. Go with the money flow.
  • 10. If you have to look, it isn’t there. Forget your college degree and trust your instincts.
  • 11. Sell the second high, buy the second low. After sharp pullbacks, the first test of any high or low always runs into resistance. Look for the break on the third or fourth try. (more…)

19+1 Trading Rules For Traders

1. Forget the news, remember the chart. You’re not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.20-RULES

2. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There’s always a crowd that missed the first boat.

3. Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they’re all just waiting to jump in the pool.

4. Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and get ready to cover.

5. Don’t buy up into a major moving average or sell down into one. See #3.

6. Don’t chase momentum if you can’t find the exit. Assume the market will reverse the minute you get in. If it’s a long way to the door, you’re in big trouble.

7. Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don’t. The old trader’s wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can. (more…)

16 Rules for Traders

1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position… not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading’s carcinogen; it is trading’s driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!

2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically.

3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital.

4. This is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High: It is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget strength, and weakness, weakness.

5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand it, however, and fewer still embrace it. 

6. “Markets Can Remain lllogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent.” These are Keynes’ words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.

7. Buy Markets That Show the Greatest Strength; Sell Markets That Show the Greatest Weakness: Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw rocks into the wettest paper sacks, for they break the most easily. When bullish we need to sail the strongest winds, for they carry the farthest.

8. Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician: The fundamentals may drive a market and we need to understand them, but if the chart is not bullish, why be bullish? Be bullish when the technicals and fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.

9. Trading Runs in Cycles, Some Good, Most Bad: Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and ever smaller when trading poorly. In “good times,” even errors turn to profits; in “bad times,” the most well-researched trade will go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.

10. Keep Your Technical Systems Simple: Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. The great traders we’ve known have the simplest methods of trading. There is a correlation here! (more…)

To Trade or Not to Trade: The Most Important Question

In trading activity alone does not make money, the right activity at the right time is what makes money. Many times the right thing, is to do nothing.

In your actual trading you have to do four things very well to make money.

You have to know when to get in.

Only enter trades that have the highest probability of success and the best risk/reward ratio. Buy the best monster stocks during up trends. Short the fallen leaders when the game changes and they are under the 50 day. Buy the monster stocks at the gift of the 200 day moving average. Short down trending junk stocks. Go where the trends are.

You have to know when to get out. (more…)