- “I needed no unusual knowledge or intelligence to conclude that the investment had no downside and potentially had substantial upside.”
- “You don’t need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns. But if you aren’t, you must recognize your limitations and follow a course certain to work reasonably well.”
- “Keep things simple and don’t swing for the fences.”
- “When promised quick profits, respond with a quick ‘no.'”
- “If you don’t feel comfortable making a rough estimate of the asset’s future earnings, just forget it and move on. No one has the ability to evaluate every investment possibility.”
- “Games are won by players who focus on the playing field — not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard.”
- “Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time.”
- “It should be an enormous advantage for investors in stocks to have those wildly fluctuating valuations placed on their holdings — and for some investors, it is.”
- “Owners of stocks…too often let the capricious and irrational behavior of their fellow owners cause them to behave irrationally as well.”
- “In the 54 years (Charlie Munger and I) have worked together, we have never forgone an attractive purchase because of the macro or political environment, or the views of other people. In fact, these subjects never come up when we make decisions.” (more…)
Archives of “financial markets” tag
rss17 Trading Rules
1. Trade needs to fit like a leather glove. 100% your terms or pass. Follow your instincts!!
2. A complete trade plan consists of entries, STOPS, and profit targets. Set a hard stop immediately for ½ position and watch other half for better exit.
3. Stick to plan and cut losers immediately! You can ALWAYS re-enter.
4. Respect your max daily loss and liquidate all positions immediately if/when hit.
5. Focus on only 1 position during the first 30 minutes for complete, undivided attention.
6. Never long a stock that is red on the day until after half time and very, very selectively (<10%).
7. Treat every trade like it is your only trade of the day/month/year.
8. Add to winners by recycling shares. Cover 1/2 into washes and re-short 1/4 on pops but reduce size each time.
9. Take a considerable timeout before switching bias from short to long.
10. Avoid shorting day 1 on low floaters – only para scalps with cover into following wash.
11. Wait for the back side of move to bring the hammer down when shorting.
12. Focus on the meat of the move, not trying to top and bottom tick everything.
13. If you have given back ¾ of daily profits, call it quits. You should never turn a green day to red.
14. Just had a monster day (good or bad)? Take tomorrow off.
15. NEVER say NEVER! Even shit can fly high if thrown hard enough.
16. Be very cautious when dip buying (small size, tight stops) – especially near potential back side.
17. 3 day rule. Better to bring the heat after day 3 of big moves.
The Difference Between A Good And A Bad Trader: What Brain Imaging Reveals
The age old question: what is the difference between a good trader and a bad trader… aside from the P&L at the end of the day of course.
While luck has always been a major component of the equation, figuring out just what makes one trader successful, while another blows all his funds on a trade gone horribly bad has always been the holy grail of behavioral finance. Because if one can isolate what makes a good trader “ticks, that something can then be bottled, packaged and resold at a massive markup (and thus, another good trade) in the process making everyone the functional equivalent of Warren Buffett.
Or so the myth goes. Alas, the distinction between the world’s only two types of traders has been a very vague one.
Until now. (more…)
19+1 Habits Of Wealthy Traders
1. Wealthy traders are patient with winning trades and enormously impatient with losing trades. Yes, I often fell prone to that. I tend to hope too much when things are going bad. I have time stops, but tend to close positions/strategies too early when having a nice gain. Too often I hold on to exit time when losing. I’m constantly working on that bad habit.
2. Wealthy traders realise that making money is more important than being right. Yes, but always hard to realise a loss.
3. Wealthy traders view technical analysis as a picture of where traders are lining up to buy and sell.Disagree, I have never found any evidence that this actually is true.
4. Before they eneter every trade they know where they will exit for either a profit or loss. Disagree, I use time stops. I have never in my testing found any value whatsoever in using targets or stop-loss.
5. They approach trade number 5 with the same conviction as the previous four losing trades. Yes, agree, but noe easy as confidence drops the more losers I have.
6. Wealthy traders use “naked” charts. Yes, I use no traditional indicators. I only use price action.
7. Wealthy traders are comfortable making decisions with incomplete information. Yes, very true. I try to make my trading as simple as possible. I avoid reading news.The only newspaper I read is The Economist. Except from that I only read football/soccer news and investment blogs on the internet. (more…)
Trading Thoughts
The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day — and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope — to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out — to soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.
When you’re in a losing streak, your ability to properly assimilate and analyze information starts to become distorted because of the impairment of the confidence factor, which is a by-product of a losing streak. You have to work very hard to restore that confidence, and cutting back trading size helps achieve that goal.
When I get hurt in the market, I get the hell out. It doesn’t matter at all where the market is trading. I just get out, because I believe that once you’re hurt in the market, your decisions are going to be far less objective than they are when you’re doing well. If you stick around when the market is severely against you, sooner or later they are going to carry you out.
The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading… I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don’t cut their losses short.”
Right Trading Mindset
Back test, study charts, and only trade proven strategies: No trading should begin until you know that your system is a historically profitable one through multiple trading environments. There are many ways to do this and the depth of study into your specific trading system is up to you. But if you do not know how what you are currently doing performed historically then you need to stop until you do understand.
- Small losses: Keeping your losses small so you can keep your will and desire to trade strong. Nothing breaks a new traders mindset faster than big, painful losses of capital that are very hard to come back from.
- Build confidence through having winning trades: A lot of the great traders we get to see on social media have built up themselves through many years of learning from failure and then hitting their stride with winning months and winning years. Even if your wins are small, wins will help you build the mindset that you can do this and be successful as a trader. Build yourself up through consistent disciplined trading and winning streaks.
- Trade with the right principles: Trading with the right core trading principles like going with the trend in your time frame, never losing more than 1% of your trading capital on any one trade, and follow your trading plan 100% can go a long way to solidifying your peace of mind as trader knowing you will not do anything that will really hurt yourself in the markets.
Match your beliefs to your trading methodology: We can only effect trade a system that matched our strong beliefs about the markets. If you believe in the nature of trends you have to find the markets that trend and trade them. If you are convinced that market always revert to the mean then a robust mean reversion is what you can comfortably trade. Swing trading for traders that love trading ranges, and day trading for those that want action and no overnight risk. The question is who are you as a trader and what trading style matches your personality and risk tolerance.
18+1 Trading Rules for Traders
- NEVER, EVER, EVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION: EVER!: Adding to a losing position eventually leads to ruin, remembering Enron, Long Term Capital Management, Nick Leeson and myriad others.
- TRADE LIKE A MERCENARY SOLDIER: As traders/investors we are to fight on the winning side of the trade, not on the side of the trade we may believe to be economically correct. We are pragmatists first, foremost and always.
- MENTAL CAPITAL TRUMPS REAL CAPITAL: Capital comes in two forms… mental and real… and defending losing positions diminishes one’s finite and measurable real capital and one’s infinite and immeasurable mental capital accordingly and alway.
- WE ARE NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF BUYING LOW AND SELLING HIGH: We are in the business of buying high and selling higher, or of selling low and buying lower. Strength begets strength; weakness more weakness.
- IN BULL MARKETS ONE MUST TRY ALWAYS TO BE LONG OR NEUTRAL: The corollary, obviously, is that in bear markets one must try always to be short or neutral. There are exceptions, but they are very, very rare.
- “MARKETS CAN REMAIN ILLOGICAL FAR LONGER THAN YOU OR I CAN REMAIN SOLVENT:” So said Lord Keynes many years ago and he was… and is… right, for illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.
- BUY THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST STRENGTH; SELL THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST WEAKNESS: Metaphorically, the wettest paper sacks break most easily and the strongest winds carry ships the farthest,fastest.
- THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN:Be bullish… or bearish… only when the technicals and the fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
- TRADING RUNS IN CYCLES; SOME GOOD, MOST BAD: In the “Good Times” even one’s errors are profitable; in the inevitable “Bad Times” even the most well researched trade shall goes awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on. (more…)
Ten Common Mistakes New Traders Are Making
They jump from trading strategy to trading strategy. New traders must find specific methodologies and systems and focus on trading them with discipline.
Position sizing is too big. New traders tend to trade so big that it engages their emotions to interfere with the trade and creates big losses that destroy their capital.
They don’t use stop losses. New traders tend to focus so much on entries and being right that they fail to have an exit plan if they are wrong and if they do they tend to not take the initial stop loss level and instead hope for a rebound.
- Not researching who they are versus how their system works. A trader can only trade a system that matches their risk tolerance and market beliefs.
- They like following others into trades. A trader can not copy others because they usually don’t know the time frame of the trade, the position size, or the stop loss level.
- They lack risk management. With out risk management new traders just give back all their profits during their next losing streak or blow up their account with a few big bad trades. (more…)
High-frequency trading: when milliseconds mean millions
Asked to imagine what a Wall Street share-dealing room looks like and the layman will describe a testosterone-fuelled bear pit crammed full of alpha males in brightly coloured jackets, frantically shouting out bid and offer prices.
He couldn’t be more wrong. Technological advances mean that stocks are now traded digitally on computer servers in often anonymous – but heavily guarded – buildings, generally miles away from the historic epicentres of finance, meaning the brash men in sharp suits depicted in films such as the The Wolf of Wall Street have been dethroned as the kings of finance.
Computer programmers have taken their crown thanks to the code they churn out, which is able to execute trades thousands of times faster than any human. (more…)
Nassim Taleb’s Risk Management Rules of Thumb
Rule No. 1- Do not venture in markets and products you do not understand. You will be a sitting duck.
Rule No. 2- The large hit you will take next will not resemble the one you took last. Do not listen to the consensus as to where the risks are (that is, risks shown by VAR). What will hurt you is what you expect the least.
Rule No. 3- Believe half of what you read, none of what you hear. Never study a theory before doing your own observation and thinking. Read every piece of theoretical research you can-but stay a trader. An unguarded study of lower quantitative methods will rob you of your insight.
Rule No. 4- Beware of the nonmarket-making traders who make a steady income-they tend to blow up. Traders with frequent losses might hurt you, but they are not likely to blow you up. Long volatility traders lose money most days of the week.
Rule No. 5- The markets will follow the path to hurt the highest number of hedgers. The best hedges are those you alone put on. (more…)